The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1st, but we have little to show for it yet, with one named storm very early on that brushed portions of Central America. The forecasts from various sources for the season called for normal to above-normal activity, so what’s happening?
This is, in a word, “normal”. By that I mean, tropical weather doesn’t usually get going in full mode until later in the summer. In a previous blog post the hurricane frequency chart was cited. To refresh your memories, here it is (from NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif
Storm frequency increases drastically from about early August on, peaking in the first couple weeks of September, then falling off rather sharply into October. The reason for this climatologically favored timing relates to the peak of sea surface temperatures and tropical wave activity.
Posted by NBC12 Meteorologist Jim Duncan