Fits for forecasters from fickle Fay

Fay, the latest tropical system of note, will likely be causing forecasters fits for at least the next several days.  The storm will pose a challenge for both track and strength.  Steering currents aloft will govern future motion, and proximity to water versus land will in large part determine intensity.  Such is the case for all tropical systems, of course, but the complicating factors for Fay will be twofold.  Number one; In terms of strength, she will probably cross southern or central Florida early on, weaken quite a bit, but then re-emerge east of there and regroup over the warm Florida Current portion of the Gulf Stream.

Number two;  Upper-level winds over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic will likely prevent Fay from pushing northward, so she will eventually turn back inland around northern Florida.  Beyond that, she may then continue heading back westward, perhaps back over the Gulf. 

Fay’s life-cycle could therefore continue for a week or even longer.  Keep a check on our main weather discussion page for updates.

Posted by Jim Duncan

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