Questions about the upcoming winter keep coming to the weather dept., so here’s a brief preview of what I see for the upcoming winter (more to come later).
First, unlike last winter and other recent winters, there is no well-defined El Nino or La Nina. Removing those two driving forces from the equations, we are left looking at various other large-scale atmospheric “signatures” that help define the general weather patterns.
I won’t delve into the particulars of those in this discussion, but some signs do point an increased potential for deeper and more southern Eastern storm development. So far, we haven’t seen too much evidence of this (more “clipper” storms from the Midwest versus bigger southern storms), although I will say this much… really cold air has been quite impressive for this early in the season.
Posted by Jim Duncan
(Update: re a comment posted: Latest from NCEP indicates only mild equatorial Pacific cooling… not at La Nina thresholds.)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf This is considered to essentially be neutral unless longer, more pronounced trends in cooling occur.