Yes, snow still can happen around here

UPDATE to below post, 12/29:  Sounds like some of you check out the medium-range (7-15 days) computer guidance online.  Wouldn’t put too much faith in it.  As noted in my main post below, all we need are the right “mix” of ingredients, if not January, maybe Feb.  At least looks somewhat promising.  Jim

Numerous comments posted recently have a common thread… depression.  There’s a strong feeling that snowstorms simply do not happen here, and probably won’t ever again.

There is no doubt that our snow drought over the past few years has cast a vision of an altered winter climate for Virginia, but let me try to keep giving all  fellow snow fanatics some hope.  There have been long, multi-year periods in the past with similar cycles.  Yet, the balance at some point, arrives.

It is often a single storm over the course of an entire winter that brings most of that season’s snow total.  But think of all of the necessary ingredients that need to coalesce for that to happen;  arctic air, the “just-right” configuration of the jet stream, and a coastal storm with explosive development. 

That could happen this winter.  Best chances are always greatest in February, and there’s no reason to necessarily think that it won’t occur.

A final thought… New Orleans, Las Vegas, and other parts of the country that rarely see snow, did get snow recently.  If it can happen there, it most surely can here too.

Posted by Jim Duncan

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13 Responses to Yes, snow still can happen around here

  1. Jeff Johnson says:

    Mele Kalikimaka is a good song.

  2. MSM says:

    0Z GFS 12/31/08 DESTROYS RIC, LOTS OF POTENTIAL COMING UP MY JAN 7TH CALL IS LOOKING GOOD

    MSM

  3. Jim B says:

    Re the storm on the 6th or 7th. The Weather Channel calls for showers. Accuweather calls for periods of snow with a high of 50. Snow at 50 degrees?? GFS shows a green blob in this area with the 0 (or 540) line through Pennsylvania, suggesting rain. There is another snow threat for January 8th or 9th. Accuweather calls for freezing rain, then snow and rain. GFS shows a green blob in this area, but this time with the 0 line through the Outer Banks. So this is a better snow threat. However, so far this season, snow threats this far out in time have turned into rain when the time got closer.

    Also, the temperature on the day before the Great Blizzard of 2000 started was in the upper 20s, not 80. It was 73 in the early part of the month, however.

  4. dave says:

    Scott and Gray – trust me, I would love to see this. But long range forecasts have us in the 40s on the 7th, which means again, as the weather men always say around here, “just rain for us”. Maybe something will change in the next 10 days, but as of now, it’s wishful thinking.

  5. Gray says:

    Is anyone else seeing this artic air mass settling in around the 7th of January just in time for a southern stream storm?

  6. Scott says:

    People need to search their memories. It always gets warm around here before it snows. Be patient and we will wake up to 18″ of partly cloudy in the near future.

  7. where did winter go? says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it. It is 73 right now and if I didn’t know better I would think it was June (either that or that I was living in Key West). There is a reason why everyone is depressed….because every year gets worse instead of better if you want snow. Richmond used to be in the perfect location – just enough inland to get cold air but close enough to the coast to get moisture from the big coastal storms. But not any more – as someone else’s post said, every time the precip comes, the temp rockets up. The Jet Stream has set up right over top of us and isn’t going anywhere unless it’s dry air moving in…we’ll never be on the north side of the low pressure again – I’m convinced. For anyone who wants to celebrate their Christams in Richmond, you’ll need to start singing Mele Kalikimaka instead of Let it Snow or Winter Wonderland. I try to be positive, but it’s hard to after five years of not even getting more than a dusting when our seasonal average is supposed to be more than a foot. What a joke.

  8. Elaine says:

    I wish we would have a big storm like we did in January 1996. That was great! Still hoping…….

  9. MSM says:

    GFS, EURO ARE SHOWING A -NAO FOR THE START OF THE NEW YEAR. THIS IS A MUST IT SEEMS TO GET A DECENT SNOW AROUND HERE. THE QUESTION IS WHERE DOES IT SET UP AND HOW LONG? IF WE CAN GET A NICE +PNA TO GO WITH THIS WE HAVE OUR BEST SHOT IN AWHILE. THE PATTERN ADVERTISED HAS ALOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JAN WITH A STORM THREAT AROUND THE 7TH

  10. Gray says:

    I wonder if i will ever see snow again haha. it gets real cold then warms up just time for the precip!

  11. It was snowing last night at Stony Point Mall. What’s up with that?

  12. Chris says:

    i remember the storm in 2000, i was in high school at the time. and the day before it was 80 degrees. but around here there was well over a foot of snow. would like to see it again.

  13. Joe says:

    We used to have pretty good snows around these parts in the 80’s and early to mid 90’s. The last few years have been a drag for snow lovers. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for late january and feburary snowstorms. Is it asking to much for 3-6 inches?

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