Frigid arctic blast arriving soon

Get ready folks.  A blast of truly cold arctic air is destined to plunge southward soon.  We’ve had some small tastes of cold temperatures this winter, but the pattern evolving for later next week (from about the 14th through at least the 17th) could bring the coldest air we’ve felt here in a long time. 

The jet stream will pull progressively colder blocks of air southward, with moderately cold air at first,  culminating quickly to very cold air around Jan. 16th.  Our lack of snow cover will prevent temperatures from tumbling as far as they potentially could otherwise.

Posted by Jim Duncan


16 Responses to Frigid arctic blast arriving soon

  1. bobby_r says:

    I know close only counts in horseshoes but believe it or not we were almost in the right scenario today to have a decent snow. The problem, however, is the usual problem Richmond faces…timing, timing, timing and storm track. Unfortunately, for Richmond snow lovers, Richmond has such a warm average high and believe it or not a rather balmy average low, even for this time of year. It takes a lot of cold air to bring the temperature to well below average for Richmond to have a chance for snow with an approaching storm system. It is for that reason that the Richmond area is often on the snow border line. (We’re not Caribou, ME where there is no shortage of cold air but instead they have a severe shortage of warm air, average high 19 degrees and average low of -1 degree) The scenario we have today is cold air beginning to spill in and a storm off the coast, but the cold air is just starting to arrive and the storm is likely to stay too far off the coast to be a factor, even for rain. This arriving arctic air would likely be perfect for a good dose of single digit temperatures if the current set-up had been a little better timed and the storm off the coast would have tracked closer to the coast line to put some snow on the ground that would allow the night time temperature to drop lower than what is expected. All we can do is wait, wait and wait. It may seem bleak that there will be any snow for Richmond ever again but with the exception of the late 1950’s thru the early 1970’s winter has always been that way for the Richmond snow lover. Winter is far from being over. Anything can happen between now and the end of March. There will be a day that Richmond will have a ringer instead of only being close.

  2. Gray says:

    Well.. I think we will be snowless unless something happens in the middle of february.january is hopeless even with the “artic blast”

  3. Terry says:

    It does seem that when snow is forecast for the Richmond ares several days in advance, as we get closer to the designated time,
    the forecast deteriorates: the predicted temps rise or the storm track changes or the the system dissipates. I mean, why even try to forecast snow 5-6 days down the road around here? No disrespect
    to you guys, but I don’t think snow forecasting in Richmond is any better now than when the poor weather people stood in front
    of wall maps with a felt-tip pen in hand.
    I’ve given up on snow this winter but I still dream of waking up
    some morning to a surprise eight-incher and no relief in sight from the following arctic blast and with more snow on the way.

  4. jim says:

    its going to snow on the week of jan 19 big snow strom get ready for it

  5. Mike says:

    Well, we are coming up on the snowiest 7 weeks of winter and signs are pointing to a split flow jet stream which usually creates a deep trough in the southeast which digs in to the GOM moisture so just because it won’t happen with this artic cold doesn’t mean it won’t happen all winter. I can’t remember getting too many snows with bitter Arctic highs moving in, it is usually seasonal temps or slightly below and when pattern changes happen. I think we could have some chances late January and early February and more than just flurries, I agree, those don’t count.

  6. Judy says:

    We have had some pretty big snows in February in the past. They don’t tend to stick around long because the days can get fairly warm in February. All in all though, I don’t care how long it sticks around, it would be a beautiful sight to see even if for a little while. That way snowlovers get what they want and snow haters don’t have to put up with it for very long. FYI : I AM A SNOWLOVER. 🙂

  7. jr. g says:

    well i finally got to see some real snows over the weekend and it was great !! it was alittle bit more than the inch we had in waynesboro thursday. but i had to travel to see it. i was up in west virginia then eastern ohio before i made a pit stop up in eerie pa on the shores of lake eerie. every where i was there was snow on the ground and in most places more was falling. even 40 miles away from afton over in highland county va there was good snows on the ground in places. the other places i mentioned earlier had 10 – 25 inches on the ground. i really did not want to come back i could have stayed up there or in west virginia all winter. on the way back tonight snow was falling nearly the whole way down till i got a few miles from the virginia border and then it stopped as i knew it would due to the mts, oh well maybe i will go a couples counties over into w virginia again next week. lol

  8. bobby_r says:

    It’s not unusual for the long range computer models to be a bust. This is why Jim has said that he has little confidence the 7/8 day long range forecast. As mentioned by J-Reid, what typically happens for the Richmond area is the temps usually moderate before the original forecast date arrives. Looking at the long range models can be fun but they aren’t worth believing. The computer models seem to be more accurate for points to our north than Richmond. The mountains to our west may not be the 15,000 foot rockies but they are a tall enough to have a tremendous effect on our weather. Add to the mountain problem we have mild winter temperatures with the help of large body of water just to our east, 45 degrees is cold as it gets for our average high. Fourty-five degrees is far, far, far from being cold. By the time we get to the end of Feb. the average high will be up to 54 degrees.

    If there was a way to research into past Richmond snowstorm forecast you would likely find that probably over 75% of the snowstorm predicted for Richmond were not accuratly predicted more that two days out and many of Richmond’s big snows were more likely to be big snows not originally predicted.

  9. CAC says:

    If we don’t get any snow between now and the 22nd, that’s it, over, finished, end of winter. Say good bye to winter if there is no snow by then, and flurries don’t count. Which would END another boring, irritating, crazy, snowless winter again. Get ready for the same next winter also also. I really want to eat my words. So bring on the snow!!!!!!!!!!!Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!For!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Once!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. J-Reid says:

    its funny how the computer models can have a good snowstorm going for like 190 hours away.. but it seems everytime something changes to allow warmer air run over top of the cold air. I’m still gonna be watching the 19th tho

  11. sadsnowlover says:

    i can already see them raising the temps in the forecast. As ususal! They are already saying that Friday will be the only sharply cold day. When before it was supposed to be several days of cold. What a joke. And there is no mosisture in sight. Over it.

  12. Chris says:

    yeah. please do we need the money right now.

  13. On my way to Ukrop’s to buy milk and bread! I know they’re closed, but I’m going to break a window. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

  14. Chris says:

    i doubt it, everytime it gets as cold as is being forecast, its always high and dry with no moisture anywhere, but soon as it warms up, there will be a big storm come thru.

  15. Kristin T says:

    Hope it lasts long enough for some decent moisture to come by, but I won’t get my hopes up!

  16. james says:

    Are we still looking for that ‘January thaw’ that you are predicting for the following week (19-23)?

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