Early February…hmmmm? UPDATE 1/30

Folks… I don’t want to stir up the snow fanatics’ enthusiasm too much, but the first  ten days  of February look  mighty suspicious.  I’ll leave it at that for now, and will update this post as soon as I get a better handle on things. 

Posted by Jim Duncan

UPDATE POSTED 1/30:  See new blog post for the latest on Monday-Tuesday storm.  Looking more promising for snow folks.  Jim


58 Responses to Early February…hmmmm? UPDATE 1/30

  1. dave says:

    what is the link to the GFS site where you can see the latest predicted track? Thanks guys and thanks Jim for keeping us updated regularly.

  2. Mike says:

    18Z GFS tracked it back west. Looking good for the Ohio Valley. Still a ways to go. If we can’t get it this storm, we might have something in the works. Sometimes a storm like this can kick the NAO negative and setup some favorable blocking that is a key element in getting snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic. Thanks for the continued updates Jim. It’s nice to get you and your teams thoughts here in more detail that you really can’t provide on your broadcasts.

  3. Jeff says:

    That would be nice Joe but you know the drill. A forecast for rain is always right.

  4. Shelia says:

    Come on BIG KAHUNA We need a good snowfall in Richmond, not ice, not rain, not sleet but SNOW!!!

  5. Joe says:

    Latest GFS has the storm going further east. Maybe there’s still a chance for central Virginia to get the BIG ONE!

  6. Ryan says:

    100 miles on this storm makes the difference of us seeing a foot of snow and all rain……still over 100 hours away from getting here…..anything can happen

  7. Sarah says:

    Come onnnn BIG KAHUNA!!!

  8. CB says:

    I’m a big snow lover myself and have lived in Richmond my entire life. I’ve seen good and bad snow years. I remember several years ago we were expecting a few inches and we turned on Ch. 12 about 1:00am and listened to Ben Woods tell us that the storm – instead of quickly moving up the coast – suddenly stalled and that this was the “big Kahuna”. We ended up with about 10 inches. This goes to show that things can change even after our fancy computer models spit out their best forecasts. From that day on we still hope for a “big Kahuna” storm.

  9. anon says:


  10. Judy says:

    Aghhhhhhh, I feel like Lucy is yanking my football out from under me! C’mon guys, be optimistic.. if we all band together and put our pj’s on inside out, turn, spit and pour ice cubes down the toilet for good measure, maybe we can make it happen! At this point, I would give it a try! Still, I haven’t given up. 🙂

  11. Ravi says:

    It will rain on Monday and Tuesday. Doesn’t mean we
    may have a chance of snow in February. Don’t expect more
    than a couple of inches later in the month.

  12. Thomas says:

    Now they’re calling for “maybe” a flurry Friday at the end of the day. Ummm…OK…sure…why not right? 😉

  13. Unnamed says:

    i love how the other news forecasters are saying snow is in the forcast. Its all becoming a competition for these news forecasters. Lets see who is right!

  14. Thomas says:

    One of the many things I love about Richmond is that we get really good thunderstorms at least a few times a year through the spring and summer. I love a great thunderstorm. My wife hates them…but it’s just something about them that has always made me smile. Well, I wasn’t too happy in 2003 when we were without power for 10 days due to that tropical depression that passed over Richmond…but hey, you can’t have everything right?

    Not too long before Spring! 60s, 70s, 80s, and above…I love it!

  15. Jeff says:

    I’m driving up to West Virginia next weekend so hopefully I’ll get my fix. I don’t even care if it’s a man made snow. There’s always a silver, or in the case of Richmond, a wet lining to every cloud though. Spring brings thunderstorms! Can’t make a snowman this year? Make a hailman!

  16. Thomas says:

    Blah…we want snow…but I know we’re not going to get it. Oh well…there’s always next year (or not), or the year after (or not)….who cares? I just want snow before I die…and I expect that to be sometime in the next 60 years…so; maybe there’s a chance!!?!!?!? 😉

  17. dave says:

    i hate this place.

  18. dave says:

    update – now expecting rain. OF COURSE. did we expect anything less? but at least the probability of weather forecasts getting our hopes up only to dash them in less than 24 hours still remains at 100%. maybe the accuracy of the rain forecast will be the same as yesterday’s where it never turned to rain and was freezing rain all night….I doubt it. As Jeff once said, when they call for rain, they are never wrong.

  19. harrison says:

    i’ll bet you that there’s going to be no more snow this year the forecasters say oh its a 80 percent chance of snow three days from now and the night before they say oh its only a 20 percent chance of snow now. snow in richmond is hopeless.

  20. patawick says:

    snow is very fun to play in…i like snow

  21. Mike says:

    Oh well, another inland runner. No chance of this trending east? I know the models always trend west but I guess I don’t want another snowless winter and T’s (trace) don’t count.

  22. JEFF says:

    jr you called it. Not gonna happen.

  23. Gary White says:

    The temp. forecast for Wed. was about as accurate as the time stamp on these comments (1 hour late).

  24. Gary White says:

    Forget 64, I want to know at what altitude it got to 55 in the
    Richmond area. I see a high of 40 at 4 pm near Short Pump.

  25. MIke says:

    What gives guys? 3:30 pm Wednesday, your website says 64 in Richmond. all my thermos in Midlo say 37 (and it just started raining). That much difference in a few miles?

  26. CAC says:

    Look! Another bust:

    UPDATE POSTED 1/28 : Computer guidance coming together now and showing storm track of Monday-Tuesday(Feb2-3) system along mountains, and therefore not cold enough for snow. Perhaps at tail end of storm late Tuesday, but that looks like all. As for beyond, my suspicions of a possible second storm within the 10-day period are growing dimmer. Jim

    You just said yesterday Jim, that you were suspicious,and now today dimmer???????????????????????????????????????????????????

  27. Jeff says:

    Who’s being sensetive on here?

  28. Ryan says:

    To elaborate on Jim’s post. Not to get snow fans excited but as of right now (Wed) there is at least the chance for a significant storm that may form off the southeast coast and head northward in the form of a Nor Easter…. This would be in the Tuesday time frame…..I feel like we have dodged so many bullets from snow that we are way overdue to get popped by a big one. Stay tuned…

  29. jesse says:

    most sites i’ve looked at are calling for temps in the 50s for that time period, with the exception of the first couple days

  30. james says:

    Never underestimate the power of the sun in February….

  31. AntC says:

    Mine was also about the typical day to day encounters with the majority of native Richmond drivers when it comes to bad rain and snow/frozen roads. Look, like it or not the plain truth is that a lot of people in Richmond just don’t know how to drive (and yes, that means they don’t know how to SLOW DOWN) when the weather calls for it. So my assessment was correct. It is about slowing down…but a lot of Richmond drivers don’t know how to do that and that’s when you get those accidents and cars in the ditch. That constitutes the same thing as “not knowing how to drive in inclement weather”. So stop being so sensitive about it. If you drive well and haven’t been in an accident caused by your own ignorance and ego when it’s been snowing, sleeting, or raining in Richmond; then that’s great! For those that have…that’s pretty stupid. I grew up in Pittsburgh…learned to drive on snow covered streets, sleet covered streets, and sheets of ice…so I have the good sense enough to slow down, stay out of the ditches, and stay off the roads when it’s not absolutely necessary to drive. Don’t turn something into an argument that doesn’t need to be argued about. It’s a SIMPLE FACT about some of the drivers in Richmond…as it is anywhere else in the country when the weather is bad.

  32. bobby_r says:

    Some are touchy,touchy,touchy. It has nothing to do with driving in the snow. It was simply a report on what was encountered in my travel in part of the Commonwealth and else where. Driving in the snow doesn’t not make anyone macho. If it does than there’s a problem with that person. It’s called I have a job and I have to go where I’m called no matter where it may be. Whethre I drive or fly I must go…a job requirment. It’s much easier than driving in the snow than driving in the ice. Dry snow is much better than driving in a wet snow or ice. It, too, was a response to the way everyone during my travel yesterday didn’t act like some kind of nut. Lets face it we all know that some drive stupid when it’s dry but it seems that when it rains or snows it brings more stupiidty. Like mentioned by some, it’s called one needs to drive according to the conditions and if the weather scares them then those people need to stay home. I didn’t grow up in snow coutry but I lived for over 25 years in Norhern Maine and Massachusettes. At times nothern drivers do the same stupid things especially when they come to Virginia, for one reason Virginia tends to have more ice than snow.

  33. Jeff says:

    There are as many misconceptions about Richmond’s drivers as there are about Richmond’s snow. If you’re not used to doing something then odds are you won’t be an expert at it. That includes driving and treating the roads. Whenever my northern friends say that Virginians can’t handle snow, I invite them down here in the middle of August. They handle our heat and humidity about as well as we handle snow. It evens out.

  34. Sabrina says:

    Bring on the SNOW!! My son’s been in Florida and hasn’t seen snow since he was 3. Bring it on!!

  35. John_Bernierz says:

    Is the weather forecast the only thing GOOD that 12 NEWS shows us?

  36. h says:

    So thank you for mentioning the bad driving/accidents during precipitation. I get sick of those who imply that people overly “freak out” about snow and and claim the locals act like it’s impossible to drive in. That’s not why schools are closed and that’s not why there are accidents. Slow your butts down and pay attention, folks! Although it is not impossible to drive in snow, ice, sleet and rain, whatever , precip. effects the roads and you cannot drive as if it’s not really there. Fast driving nuckleheads can hydroplane in a mere silly common rain!
    It’s not about being macho. It’s about being truly aware that a change in the surface is call for a change in the way that you drive. Change the way that you drive.
    And from someone who grew up with snow, snow, snow in the mountains, it’s easier to drive in snow than it is in rain that has frozen to ice, or even heavy sleet, which we are probably more likely to get it seems. So get off your drivin’-in’-snow high horse.
    Lecture over!
    Now let’s hope for some glorious snow! And more importantly, let’s all be SAFE, and leave the macho at home before you get in your car.

  37. bobby_r says:

    Sorry my last post had so many words spelled incorrectly. I guess I’m beat from being on the road all day. Time to call it a day. I’m sure you were able to figure out what I was meaning to say.

  38. bobby_r says:

    Ant C, I couldn’t help but laugh when I read your comment about the 90+ accidents today in Richmond from the mild sleet and mixed precipitation. It’s so typical Richmond. I left my Hanover home this morning when it was snowing to go to Kyser WV (about 20 miles south of Cumberland MD). I didn’t think about it until I read your post but I did not see a single vehicle in a ditch, in the median or stranded during the entire drive. I was surprised to see that there didn’t seem to be more snow on the ground than what was on the ground at my home until I got near Staunton, although not much. The closer I got to Harrisonburg the better the accumulation, but again nothing to brag about, maybe 1”- 1.5” at best. It was not until I go north of Mount Jackson did the snow start falling again. By the time I got to Winchester there was at least a respectable snow accumulation and it was snowing steady when I pasted through. When I got on Route 50 the roads were completely snow covered from that point on. During the entire trip on Rt. 50 and then Rt. 220 N. to Cumberland I never saw the first mishap.

    By the way, Richmond drivers are not the only ones go nuts during inclement weather. I travel to Southern California quiet a bit and you should see how those people act when it rains. Southern CA only gets about 16” of rain per year. It almost never rains during the summer so when the rains come in the winter it becomes bumper cars on the 405 and 5, for that matter all the freeways. You should see the cars flipped over and every sort of thing.

    FYI, it’s still snowing here in Cumberland. I wish I could ship some to the rest of you snow lovers in Richmond.. Isn’t it interesting how it can be 15 or 20 degrees and snowing but it does not feel as cold as 35 or 40 degrees and raining. I can remember when I lived in Maine how even when the temps got below 0, it often did, it was cold but you surprisingly adjusted to it. I still love snow!!

  39. Lori says:

    There is a typo in your weather forecast as of 1/27/09 at 8:30pm!! “Teh” instead of “the.” Sorry, I am a bit bitter since you provided no hint of a snow day for tomorrow!! 🙂

  40. AntC says:

    Yes, that 2000 storm was mid-January and it was great! Well, we can only hope for another 15 plus inches in early February..but like I said; I’m not going to hold my breath. Sure, it would be nice…but at the same time just think about the conditions on the roads. If they had 90+ accidents around metro Richmond just after today’s mild sleet and mixed precipitation….then I shudder to think what an early February heavy snowfall would look like. Thankfully I can work from home and skip the office if need be! 😉

  41. Jeff says:

    Michael that was in 2000 when we had that last big snow. Other than 3 years in Hawaii (yes there’s even snow there on Maui and the Big Island) I’ve been in Richmond for 40 years and experience tells me that it usually happens by surprise but you never know. The forecasters called the 1996 blizzard way in advance and were spot on. Keep the faith!

  42. Michael says:

    Having been in Richmond for 20 years,

    I can say that it’s possible, but I agree with Jim, not going to happen.

    The last real snow storm I remember is the Blizzard of January 1996 we got roughly 20-36 inches of snow.

    There was a storm more recently, maybe 5-6yrs back where we got 14 inches. Though, they told us we’d only get 1-3, so you never can tell. Here’s hoping

  43. Kristin T. says:

    Stop that you keep getting my hopes up! Don’t promise what can’t be delivered!!!

  44. Jim says:

    Mighty suspicious, huh? I suspect that it will rain, and be cold, and then we will have a week of really warm temperatures, then more rain, then maybe an inch of snow in March, then it will be spring. That’s how it works in Richmond.

  45. AntC says:

    It would be good to see a decent size storm and good snowfall in early February…but being here as long as I’ve been in Richmond; I won’t put stock in it. I hope I’m wrong though.

  46. Sarah says:

    Just hope no one comes by the house when that night comes!!! LOL

  47. Ali says:

    In addition to the inside-out PJs and the spitting, everyone needs to flush ice cubes down the toilet too.. I heard that definitely works!

  48. Jessica Blankinship says:

    I can’t wait….I have been waiting on a “good snow” so my daughter can play in it, she will love it!! She hasn’t seen a real snow yet, so it will be fun for all!!! Jim, thank you so much for always keeping us posted, it is so great of you and very much appreciated!!!

  49. Sam says:

    Jim, you must be on the Ukrops’ payroll.

  50. TOBY ZIEGLER says:


  51. Jeff says:

    Ok, I still have an old short wave radio so I’m going to tune it to NOAA Weather radio like in the old days. It’s a good luck charm!

  52. Lew says:

    Man…….just one decent snow….just one! that’s all i ask!!

  53. Vera says:

    I agree with Sarah lets all wear our pjs inside-out and backwards and maybe the snow gods will grace us with their presence….. I want it around for a couple of days so we can all go sledding & not work…..Vera

  54. Virginia M says:

    I agree with Jenn…..all I want is one good one that wil stick around for a couple of days so I can play with my kids in it!

  55. jr. g says:

    not going to happen

  56. Jenn says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it 🙂 All I want is one good snow!

  57. Scottie says:

    It’s been 13 years since the last big snow storm…bring it on!

  58. Sarah says:

    Guess we should all wear our pjs inside-out and backwards!!!

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