Snow ?!? UPDATE 2/1

I’ll keep this brief as I write this this morning (Jan.30).  What has been looking like a pretty clear-cut rain storm early next week is morphing into something that may please snow-fans.  I’ll await new computer runs that will trickle in this afternoon, but if they confirm an apparent shift in storm track to the east, then….?   Check this blog post later today and I’ll elaborate with new data in hand.  Jim

UPDATE Posted 2/1:  Check out my new blog post for the latest on this storm.  Jim

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65 Responses to Snow ?!? UPDATE 2/1

  1. jake says:

    Thomas, don’t worry. We’ve been dealing with him for a while. He’s an idiot. And you’ll find that when challenged to provide real information on weather that requires some sort of understanding, he can’t do it.

  2. Thomas says:

    Then by all means j-reid…enlighten the rest of us poor souls who know nothing! Talk the talk, then walk the walk…that’s how it works.

  3. tyler says:

    Man its pretty warm outside. its like 59 degrees. springs a comin

  4. Jeff says:

    Since it isn’t going to snow (will it ever again in Richmond?) I would just as soon it be 70 dgrees. Bring on spring!

  5. tyler says:

    i was in elemantary school then, it was so cool because we missed like an entire week of school! I miss those days.

  6. fjgrdiogn says:

    yea from the 15 inches we got

  7. anthony says:

    i dont think you can ficgure out the weather im at vcu studying enviromental science trying to be a meteorologist so hopefully im wrong like everyone else

  8. tyler says:

    Wow, I havent missed a nice school break from snow since 2000

  9. Judy says:

    I admit to being clueless..when it comes to the weather, most of us are, there is no certainty in the weather no matter what the numbers are. However, I am full of wishful thinking during the winter.. I guess it’s still the kid in me and I am actually pretty old and still haven’t figured out the weather! 🙂

  10. Anthony says:

    too many models are showing the low pressure is gonna be to far off the coast nada

  11. jake says:

    it never works that way. the coastal storm always steals the moisture from the clipper, because it is much more powerful.

  12. Jeff B says:

    right now it looks like a glanceing blow to our south but a clipper moveing in from the nw interacting with the storm off the coast and the fresh cold air associated with the clipper might be a little intresting in ric i could see a few inches possible Tue if moisture from the main storm gets into the clipper

  13. I don’t know if we’ll get any snow, but there sure are a few flakes commenting on this blog! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!!

  14. Disco Dave says:

    The 0Z model runs have all come way back west with a huge east coast snowstorm. Of course RIC is on the southern edge, but it looks much better than just 2 hours ago. Check out Easternuswx.com

  15. J-Reid says:

    some of you people don’t have a clue what your talking about….

  16. Thomas says:

    I wouldn’t trust “in”-accuweather. Try http://www.easternuswx.com Good info there, and good input from people in the know (well, mostly in the know 😉 ).

  17. tyler says:

    hey guys. where online are you finding all rain in the forcast. i just checked 5 sources:\accuweather, weather.com, weatherbug.com, and nbc12. they all say the same…. rain changing to snow. then snow tuesday morning. im just curious.

  18. Thomas says:

    It’s going to be a rain event folks! Central and Southeastern VA are going to get nothing but rain with some sleet mixed in. Pack it up, it’s time to get on with our lives and accept that Richmond, once again, is getting shafted by one of the biggest storms to hit in the past decade. It’s big, sure…just not for Richmond and points east.

  19. Ravi says:

    Look for some rain (possibly freezing) early this week.

  20. tyler says:

    o. sorry for posting that twice. haha

  21. tyler says:

    wow. i’m surprised… the forcast models of many different sources have not changed for the past few hours.

  22. tyler says:

    I am actually surprised. the forcast models haven’t changed for the past few hours.

  23. Thomas says:

    I’d be surprised to see anything over a dusting to a half inch in Richmond…then expect it to be completely melted away from sunshine within 24 hours (more likely a lot less time than that…I was being generous with that time…as I am with the amount of ground precip amount). What has the median snowfall been in Richmond for the past 20 or 30 years when you average it all out? About 3 inches?

  24. Tyler says:

    well according to weather.com, they are now saying pm showers monday with snow mixing in overnight, then a chance for some snow showers early tuesday morning.

    (so far this year weather.com has not been very accurate)

    Also, about 2 hours ago, they were saying just rain monday afternoon. It looks like we won’t really know what will happen till monday morning…..

    Check out this article. It looks a little more positive towards snow. http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=0
    They are saying 1 to 2 inches. YAY!!!!!

    The storm track is now predicted to follow the coast line and maybe further out. Which is better for us. maybe..

  25. jeff says:

    Hey y’all. Check out these stats I found. Talk about a pattern.

    A listing of all 6”+ snows in Richmond since January 1980.

    2000s
    7.7” January 2-3, 2002
    12.5” January 24-25, 2000

    1990s
    8.3” February 16, 1996
    11.5” January 6-8, 1996

    1980s
    7.6” February 18, 1989
    7.5” January 7-8, 1988
    8.4” January 25-26, 1987
    7.4” January 22, 1987
    17.7” February 10-11, 1983
    6.1” December 12, 1982
    7.1” January 13-14, 1982
    13.0” March 1-2, 1980
    14.9” January 4-5, 1980

  26. james says:

    Looks like we may have dodged the bullet here.  Thanks to all who were wishing it would track east – looks like you’ll get your wish.  Now if we could just get those warmer temperatures – now that Feb’s practically here, we’re on the homestretch…

  27. Penn$$$ says:

    We still have a chance, don’t give up hope! However, it is nice to see that people on here really want snow and cold. .Every morning I listen to Matt DiNardo give the forecast on Big Al’s show and have to sit though his, “Well, thank goodness, looks like the pattern has changed and we are going to be sunny with highs in the mid-60s!!” Dude, it is not supposed to be in the mid-60s in January in the 804! That is a goOd 20 degrees above average! LET IT SNOW!!!!!

  28. Thomas says:

    We’ll get a good snowfall again…in 2025….so rest up, stock up, and prepare for it. You’ve got plenty of time to stock toilet paper so you won’t run out when we get about 6″ of snow in December 2025 😛

  29. Jeff says:

    Kristin, it seems we’ve moved the entire east coast further south. A previous poster stated that we’ve become the deep south weather wise and it’s hard to argue with that logic when you count the many years since Richmond has had any appreciable snow.

  30. Kristin says:

    Have we moved the state further south and I missed it?? :SIGHS: I don’t know why I’m surprised or even upset about it, I knew better. At least I didn’t tell my mom to get her or her fellow teachers hopes up for a possible snow day Tuesday.

  31. dave says:

    we can’t win. if it goes west, we get heavy rain. if it goes east, we don’t have enough moisture. i guess our only hope is for it to go right thru the middle (just over Va Beach and the Eastern Shore), but hopes of that are quickly fading eastward. It’s not out of the question for the storm to do the opposite of what is predicted, so anything is possible up until Monday. But this just proves that we can never get a definitive, predicted snowstorm here. It’s always a gamble and a total waiting game. Would be nice to live somewhere that had a guarantee of snow when moisture was coming. Richmond used to at least have something each year. Shouldn’t be that hard to get a few snowfalls in 4 months, but since “real” storms (not dinky clippers) are hard to come by, it’s just becoming more and more of a struggle. At least kids that were born recently don’t have the memories of how snow used to happen, which I find to be torture and just wanting it the way it was when it seems it will never be that way again 😦

  32. Jeff says:

    Looking at the GFS it has the feel of another quick “southern” event meaning NC could see another snow and here, nada.

  33. Judy says:

    😛 @ Mother Nature… if that doesn’t upset her enough to make it snow…then I finally give up!

  34. Tyler says:

    well we will se how this shapes up in the next day or 2…

  35. Thomas says:

    Looks like the bottom has completely dropped out of this system…looks to mean no snow for us (surprise!), and really no significant storm for the NE either (model showing too far east now, even for coastal areas). What a shocker huh? lol.

  36. Jeff says:

    I was looking at snow statistics for other states and in NYC it’s the first time in 75 years that no measurable snow has fallen in January. In Philidelphia 1.1 inches of snow was measured for the month of January, bringing the seasonal total to 2.4. That’s about a third of normal and Washington D.C. has had no measurable snow at all. Hey La Niña! Could you go on a vacation?

  37. Thomas says:

    My wife and I started looking at houses for sale in Palm Beach Gardens tonight. We figure “screw this”. If we’re just going to get shafted on snowfall, then what good is winter? Why be around for the cold with no snow? I’d rather it be 65 to 75 degrees on average, deal with rain, and enjoy the non-deciduous trees and palms all year long. Sorry, but we’re just sick and tired of the cold with nothing to show for it. We’ll come back to visit during winters every now and then; but I expect to see nothing but rain and 35 degrees each December/January from that point on.

  38. Thomas says:

    x2 on Monday morning. Let’s all just enjoy the game Sunday and worry about next week when we get to next week!

    Go STEELERS!!!!!! 😉

  39. Ray says:

    January 24, 2000 that is

  40. Ray says:

    I’m with Thomas and everyone else who agrees that the best thing to do is to wait and see. I remember watching all of the 6 o’clock weather forecasts on January 24th that said a trace of snow could be expeted in Richmond, with slihtly higher amounts closer to Williamsburg. Five hours later at 11, snowfall potential in Richmond had grown to 8-12 inches. I’ll start really listening Monday morning.

  41. Thomas says:

    I don’t know why people get so excited about this stuff…especially in the Richmond area…we all know it’s best to just wait until the time of the actual event to see what we ultimately end up with (whether it’s rain or snow…or nothing). I’m still crossing my fingers for snow; but I’ve refused to let myself get sucked into the “what ifs” and “maybe, favorable, likely” stuff anymore. Again, I’ll keep saying I hope I’m wrong on this one and I’ll gladly keep my foot in my mouth if we end up with another 15+” snowstorm like the one almost exactly 9 years ago. Until Monday night/Tuesday; I continue to remain the cynic.

  42. todd says:

    Storm looks like a track to the east of central va…good chance to see some snow with the present ensembles track. Tomorrow night things should come into better focus

  43. Jeff A says:

    Kristen you are correct. The new Seattle. Trade in those snow shovels for fog horns.

  44. Sarah says:

    Once again they have changed it over to just rain 😦 Geez, we just can’t seem to catch a break!!

  45. Thomas says:

    I’m thinking at the most we’ll see 2″-4″…at the least we’ll get some rain and some snow flurries mixing in. I do hope I’m wrong though, I’d love to have more than 4″ of snow in Richmond next week. It’ll give me a chance to catch up on some sleep since I wouldn’t be traveling outdoors that day 😉

  46. Matt says:

    I’ve been looking at different sites all day and everything I can see is that the storm is shifting east on the models but at the same time weakening. This being said. Yes we could get some snow but maybe not as much as could have been. This storm was being hyped up as a super storm. 75% of the Storm of the Century in 93. If that comes back around and the storm goes up the cost we could be looking at blizzard somewhere in VA.

  47. lew says:

    I tell you one thing, if we do get a Snow Storm, then i’ll have nothing bud HUGE PROPS out to Jim Duncan for calling this thing out before anyone else!!

    Man….i’ve got every finger and toe crossed hoping and praying for a BIG SNOW STORM…..or any measurable snow for that matter…just something to get excited about for a change!!

    I won’t believe it till i see it though!!!!

  48. Kristin says:

    HAd to share this link from accuweather.com. I say we all do snow dances, chant, pray, whatever this storm to the East. If this building storms moving just offshore and North, we might actually see ourselves a decent snowstorm. Here’s the link:
    http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=1

  49. Kristin T. says:

    OH PLEASE LET IT SNOW!!!! If I can’t have any snow, then I just want winter over with… I’m sick of getting my hopes up and get a bunch of stupid rain. I feel like I’m living in the Pacific Northwest or something with all the rain we get during the winter now. The sad part is, I know they got more snow so far in Washington State than we have!

  50. Bigjerms says:

    Does anyone really think it’s going to snow? I am a teacher and would love for it to snow, but get real. I look forward to getting my hopes up and then watching it rain.

  51. Jeff B says:

    There already is a Jeff posting so ill have to be Jeff B. This one does look intresting as of the data now it looks like a pretty close storm to the superstorm of 1993 in that its going to form in the gulf and as of right now run up the 95 area just east of the mountains? Well if thats true the forecast can be done pretty well by just going into some weather history: superstorm Richmond about 6″ total of snow 1″ or so right at the begining and then a changeover to rain all day that Sat then change back to snow around dark Sat night with 6″. There are a few diffrences though one big one is that the timeing of superstorm was getting towards mid-March with a nearly spring sun angle. I’m hopeing the lower sun angle may help precip stay snow longer and maybe give us more than 6″

  52. Josh says:

    Just looked at the hot off the press 12Z runs for the GFS, NOGAPS and Canadian Models, all trended east with a weaker lower pressure system. The HPC ( Hydrometeorological Prediction Center ) also caught onto this eastward shift starting with the 18Z run last night.

    Just food for thought though before anyone ( including myself ) gets too terribly excited… it has been the trend this season that models shift these systems eastward in the medium range ( 3-5 days ) only shift back westward in the short range ( 0-2 days ). Not to mention the preferred track this season has been slightly west of the Appalachians. Not raining on the parade/buzz, but its something for everyone to keep in the backs of their mind to save the anxiety and disappointment of another letdown haha

  53. Greg says:

    i believe that most other sites, such as nws, accuweather and weahter channel have not really updated any of there information since last night. for example NWS has the same forecast discussion that was posted yesterday afternoon. i believe that the new discussion this afternoon will focur more on a snow event!

  54. Ryan says:

    what sites J Reid?

  55. Jeff says:

    Most other sites I’ve seen still say the computer data is very consistent with an inland storm hence rain with a chance of a few wet flakes at the end and that’s it.

  56. Greg says:

    is it possible that this thing may shift too far east for us to get a big snowstorm? If we have a 15:1 snow ratio with the 18z model it looks like we might just get 4 inches or so. What do you think Jim?

  57. John says:

    and btw, the farmers almanac is very fairly ever right with a big storm especially at the time it says its coming

  58. J-Reid says:

    i look at like 5 or 6 different sites for tracks of storms..

  59. Jeff says:

    Snow or not, these blogs are cool so thanks Jim!

  60. SCS says:

    I work all weekend and am off Mon, Tue, & Wed.!!! LET IT SNOW! I do feel badly for my coworkers-like the mail and Dunkin Doughnuts-you gotta fill the prescriptions! Jim, please give us some good news about the storm!

  61. Gwyn Dawson says:

    Sorry Jim,

    Farmers Almanac doesn’t say anything about snow for us. Much to the chagrin of my son and myself. Never hurts to keep your fingers crossed though!

  62. Ryan says:

    What are your favorite Weather site’s for tracking a storm??

  63. J-Reid says:

    Yeah it keeps looking better and better for a REAL snowstorm even if it starts out as rain. Another 20 to 60 miles east of its predicted track now will lead to VERYYYY interesting things. I’m currently in Martinsville and the track right now is looking like it could dumb some serious snow here!!!

  64. J-Reid says:

    This is starting to look like a gigantic storm.. Either way, were going to get a lot of precipitation. Looks like the chance of snow is getting better and better!!

  65. Ryan says:

    Yea it looks now like the storm track is taking it just east of Richmond….id like to see it shift about 30 miles east for things to get very interesting….keep us updated Jim!!

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