Post-Groundhog snow UPDATE 2/3

The Monday night-Tuesday (Feb 2-3) storm, and then a small secondary system into Wednesday will most likely produce some snow (emphasis-not much) for Central Virginia, with light rain  initially (late Monday evening), then a changeover to wet snow late at night into Tuesday.

Very warm temps Monday afternoon will eventually be overcome by cold advection behind a front, but it will take some time… this happening while a developing storm churns northward from near Florida.   That storm should stay well offshore.

My feeling is that the opportunity for some very light snow is decent, although ground temps, even after the colder air arrives, will still be quite warm.  The second system into early Wednesday may dust us with a little too. 

Posted by Jim Duncan

UPDATE posted 2/3,  10pm:  Computer and radar trends really backing off big-time on any snow, even southern Virginia.  My gut feeling also telling me that this is a non-event for accumulating snow except for perhaps Virginia counties bordering North Carolina, and even that appears questionable.  Morning daylight will illuminate if this is the case.  Jim

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48 Responses to Post-Groundhog snow UPDATE 2/3

  1. jr. g says:

    since we finally got a good snowfall out here in the western part of the state monday night ( 1 to 5.5 inches ) and there was a good swath of snow tuesday just to the north along the I 95 corridor, it really does leave the richmond/eastern va area as one of the few if not the only area in the country who usually gets alittle snow who hasn’t seen anything this winter. wow that is strange considering snow has fallen in many locations even down south this winter as well.

  2. J-Reid says:

    so we were suppose to see 2-4 inches of snow last night along with a Winter Weather Advisory in Martinsville. Not only did we not get 2-4 inches, but we didn’t even get 1 SNOWFLAKE!! Not only can we not predict 3-5 days out, but we can’t even predict what is going to happen several hours from the now!! GEEZE Virginia is in a snow spell. someone get us out of it!!

  3. harrison says:

    bobby you should become a meteorologist.

  4. Jeff says:

    I guess it would’ve helped to include a lnk huh? LOL. Here’s one.

    http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/lofiversion/index.php/t130748.html

  5. bobby_r says:

    There’s much mentioned on the blog about the hope of Richmond getting a big snow like what happened in 2000. It seems that some think big snows of that magnitude are a normal occurrence for Richmond. When you look at the big picture of weather statistics it’s not true. Here are the top 15 single event all time snowfalls in Richmond, as recorded by the NWS. I have given only the year and storm total.
    1940, 21.6”; 1922, 19.1”; 1983, 17.7; 1908, 17.2”; 1899, 16.3”; 1962, 15.2”; 1980, 14.9”; 1966, 14.8”; 1980, 13.0”; 1936, 12.6”; 2000, 11.0”; 1979, 10.9”; 1912, 10.6; 1917, 10.4”; 1948, 10.1”
    When using only these single event snowstorms, Richmond has averaged 14.3” from its biggest snows. This is very close to the 30 year (1971-2000) average of 11.7”. Another point that these statistics tell us is that in the 121 years (1887- 2008) of precipitation statistics for Richmond there is only a 12.4% chance that a snowstorm will dump 10.1” or more of snow in any given year. It’s interesting to note that every now and then snowstorms of these magnitudes seem to occur frequent. Look at 1979 and 1980, there were three major snows of 10” or more with two in 1980 when there was 14.9 “ from a storm in Jan. and 13.0 “ from a storm in March. Is this normal? Not when you look at the 121 years of statistics. When storms occur frequent, like in 1979 & 1980, the impression is that this is normal because they occurred, for many of us, in our life time. It’s no different than for many of us that were alive in the 1960’s talking the big talk about how Richmond got good snows every year. For those of us living during that period it seemed normal. Was it normal? Not when you look at the 121 year statistics. Those statistics tell a different story. The 15 year period from 1958-1972 were, on average, for Richmond, abnormally snowy and abnormally cold. There is no other period in the 121 year period like that 15 year period. When you look at the law of averages it’s tough to get a snowstorm in Richmond to produce depths of more than 10”. I’m like most of you, I’d love to see a big snowstorm of 10”+ ( right now most of us will take a 3” or 4” snowfall) but like a few of you have noted the odds are against any major snowstorm. Like it or not, Richmond has such mild average winter temperatures a lot of events have to come into perfect order to even have a small snowstorm much less a major snowstorm. In Richmond it has always been that way.

  6. Anon says:

    I concur with Jeff. By the way I think you posted some info
    about 6+ inch snowfalls since 1970 on another thread. I was
    wondering where you got that data. I am a stat-junkie and I
    wanted to look at more numbers like that.

  7. DAC71 says:

    I keep hearing rumblings about a mid-February snow storm for our area. Is this the case Jim, or are those in reference to places like New England, PA, NJ, NY, etc…? It would be nice to see something happen before the blooms…and I know it’s a little too far out for you to make an educated guess…just curious.

    I did enjoy the scenery this morning. A refreshing change.

  8. Chris says:

    where are the 80’s? isn’t this summer now?

  9. Jeff says:

    The Industrial Revolution began in the late 18th Century and the Earth has been here 4.5 billion years. There have been at least four major ice ages in the Earth’s past so climate change seems to be inevitable. Can man, in a little over 200 years seriously alter a system of balance that his been in place for longer than we can even fathom? I’ve studied the climate change issue from all angles and there just isn’t enough proof on either side to make an affirmative judgement either way. We haven’t had a major snowstorm in 7 years and that is unusual. The 80’s were loaded with storms and that was unusual too. I’ve used the “global warming” mantra myself but this snow drought prompted me to really look into the subject and upon further review, I still don’t know so I’ll just have to go with Jim and his explanation of balance. After all, he’s the one with the degree.

  10. dave says:

    WHAT IN GOD’S NAME IS GOING ON? AFTER TONIGHT, RALEIGH WILL HAVE 8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE YEAR AND RICHMOND WILL HAVE 1/2 inch. London, which never gets snow, just got clobbered. Climate Change, Global Weirding, whatever you call it….I just hope Obama helps us get this Earth back on track. Because things are SCREWED UP. And it’s really sad.

  11. jeff says:

    Mars looks really bright in the sky tonight. That is Mars, right?

  12. Anon says:

    If you are in the immediate Richmond area (City, Henrico
    or Hanover) you will definitely have school tomorrow. Chesterfield
    has a shot at a delay but don’t count on it.

  13. Jerreyh says:

    I hope some moisture gets drawn up into the low tonight, and we get about an inch that sticks TO THE ROADS! I’m really HATING Richmond getting zero-to-no snow! GRR. Thanks for the updates atleast.

  14. tyler says:

    hopefully with cooler temps tomight, another inch or so might be possible in western henrico. id love to miss school tomorow

  15. harrison says:

    we got a dusting in elko (eastren henrico) but it wasn’t enough snow in the whole county to make a snowman

  16. Joe says:

    We got about two inches here in southern Va. Keeping my hopes up for maybe two more tonight!

  17. Sarah says:

    I’m keeping my fingers crossed for something tonight. It would be nice if it snowed tonight and the kids got out of school for a day and then by this weekend it would be gone and we could all enjoy the 65 degree teps the are forcasting.

  18. jeff says:

    We had a dusting out here by the airport but it’s mostly melted away now.

  19. tim says:

    what about the predicted 7 inch totals is that your new guess for the total snow for the year or is it gonna be less

  20. Brian says:

    In Chester we had our dusting, and coming to work in the city I saw that Varina had their dusting as well. The city looks snow free. It just looks as if it rained here all night. I don’t know what we have done to anger the snow gods but we need to fix it immediately. I would like to take my son sledding in Byrd park before he is to old to want to go with dad.

  21. jr. g says:

    wow, it is beautiful over here this morning near waynesboro/afton. 4 to 5 inches of snow that is clinging to every thing, with a thick blanket of fog. really does look like a postcard !!

  22. Judy says:

    We got about an inch of snow here in Louisa. It’s the really pretty kind that hung onto the trees, fences etc. I am just going to sit and look at it for a little while and enjoy the scenery while it lasts.

  23. jr. g says:

    must say i am surprised that over here near waynesboro tonight we had almost exactly 4 inches. it was about a 7 hour event. it was really nice to see, had not seen a 4 inch storm since the 2nd week of feb. 06

  24. Jerreyh says:

    So, if the cold front develops into a low in the Atlantic and draws in moisture, we could be on the western end of it, thus SNOW! We’ll see. It’s a long-shot, but you never know — weather is sometimes UNpredictable.

  25. tyler says:

    true that

  26. Anon says:

    As long as I get a day off from school, I don’t care how
    much we get.

  27. Johan says:

    where do you guys see 2 – 4 inches? Most people are saying a dusting…. I really hope there is a ton of snow tommorow!!!

  28. Jeff says:

    Most forecast are calling for a grass dusting at best and there’s a major warm-up after Friday. It’s definitely looking like another snow=free winter has come and gone for Richmond.

  29. DAC71 says:

    Double negatives or not, we’ll get something; it’s just not going to be a snowstorm like the NE states may see before it’s all said and done with. Temps are dropping slowly as of right now, but it’s a good bet for wet snow late tonight; with about an inch of slop by 8am tomorrow morning.

  30. harrison says:

    you people are crazy!!! i bet you that were not going to get nothing

  31. Kristin says:

    What the heck?! We’ve got nothing to lose, I’m doing my snow dances and hoping for the best, even though I expect nothing!

  32. Jeff B says:

    It looks like an inch is actuaully a pretty good bet tonight and tommorow morning since there will be an area of convergence between the clipper and cold front moveing in from the NW and the low pressure system off the coast. This low is going to be offshore of va beach tommorow morning and there is the possibility that we may see a band of heavy snow, but it should be breif. All that being considered id say good chance of 1″ but i do see the 2-4″ that others have been suggesting being possible. Also if we get the heavy snow band then there will more likely be accumulation on the roads as well so school may get called! What we need to see is the low off the coast getting pulled just slighlty west by the northern energy even a amall change westward may help strengthen the convergence and make the snowfall intensity and amounts go up

  33. tyler says:

    so wich should we trust. i would love to have a nice break from school tomorow..

  34. Jim VB says:

    The GFS also calls for 2-4 inches of snow. But the NOAA forecast discusser says that there should not be too much snow as the temperatures tomorrow will be too warm – in the mid 40s. Further, the 12Z NAM calls for a dusting to 2 inches.

  35. tyler says:

    is this on easternuswx…. i’m also curious about them actually calling for 2 to 4 inches, i mean i haven’t found many sources that indicate anything more than an inch.
    thats good news though

  36. Blake says:

    the 12z euro is a forecast model (a very good one at that) and it’s basically what tv met’s use to forecast the weather there are ALOT of other forecast model’s out there but the euro is the best…
    the euro is saying we will have about .30 of liquid to work with. which would = about 2-4 inches of snow.

  37. Liz says:

    I don’t know what the 12z Euro is, Blake. And what does .30 of liquid snow mean?

  38. Blake says:

    The 12z Euro give’s Ric .30 Of Liquid (most of it is snow).. now for ppl that don’t know the euro model is the Sh*t and is always right.

  39. tyler says:

    as long as temperatures today stay below the 60’s, unlike yesterday, the chance for measurable accumulation will be slightly better. Also, if warm temps can be overcome by cooler air earlier, things might look a little better too.

  40. Brandon says:

    Not sure why people are getting excited about a dusting. This is what we get every year. Wupty Doo!

  41. Hayden says:

    “haha look at this– http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/cmcens/members/12zggemensp001p06048.gif < this gives ric ALOT of snow.

    GGEM EMS MODEL said this on February 1, 2009 at 7:43 pm "

    THATS WHAT I WANT TO SEE.

    So far the winter forecast for Richmond: ITS GOING TO SNOW — the next day Only rain!

  42. GGEM EMS MODEL says:

    haha look at this– http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/cmcens/members/12zggemensp001p06048.gif < this gives ric ALOT of snow.

  43. tyler says:

    You have a point JimB, but for a high school student who hasen’t had a major break from school since 2000, snow sounds pretty good right now. you’re right, i don’t want a major blizzard with destruction and dangerous conditions, but 3-5 inches would suffice for us highschoolers. plus exams just ended and we need a break!

  44. JimB says:

    A dusting makes things look pretty for a while. The effect is similar to having Yule lights all over the place as at Ginter Garden. But not huge gobs to shovel in the driveway or plow on the roads.

  45. Jeff says:

    Some’s better than none I suppose but deep down snow lovers want a 6″+ snow. A simple dusting is just a tease.

  46. JimB says:

    I regard this as bad news. Any prediction of wintry precipitation can go awry and lead instead to heavier snow or sleet, freezing rain, and so forth. This means slippery conditions on the highways and accidents, roads that can’t be driven, cancellations, snowplows that never come, and so forth. Further, remember that COLD weather follows this snow! Any snow that falls will stick around for at least three days. I am hoping for all rain, or at least snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces, followed by sun that melts even that.

  47. tyler says:

    THANKS FOR THE GOOD NEWS JIM

  48. MATTY says:

    WOO HOOO!!!!!!! SNOW

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