Computer models are frequently cited as source points for our weather forecasts. That has been the case since the first “super-computers” were introduced to the world of weather prediction several decades ago.
The computer “guidance” is a mathematically-derived prediction of the state of our weather, and there are a dozen or more different models available. The United States has several (GFS is one of them), but there are also Europeon, Korean, Canadian, etc. computer models. Sifting through all of this varying information can be mind-bending.
Here’s the bottom line, and the point of this blog post: not a single one of these computerized forecasts are truly reliable on a consistent basis. We, in the meteorological community, often put too much faith in the forecast information spewed forth from our trusty computers, but in the end we must depend on our own “gut” feelings when we make the final call. That much hasn’t changed over the years.
Yes, the quality of this information has improved tremendously over the nearly 30-years I’ve been in the business, but we still have a very long way to go.