March roars

It looks like the first couple days of March could roar in like a lion  (so I guess that also means it ends with a wimper).  We’ll see.  Let’s get to the roaring part for now.

An extremely complex pattern will make the forecast details tricky, but in general, we can safely say that a significant storm will eventually be taking shape near the Southeast coast later in the weekend.  The details are sketchy because two factors coming into play, the track and the amount of cold air infiltration, will not be well-defined until shortly before all of this shakes out.

At the very least, we will finally get some beneficial rainfall from a preliminary storm during the beginning of the weekend.  The questions arise from the second storm.

For snow lovers, at best you could see some snow, mainly from Sunday night into Monday.  At worst,  moisture skirts past our area to the south, and we’re left with very little precipitation.

Portions of the interior Carolinas could hit the jackpot, with significant snowfall possible.   Stay tuned for the latest on our main forecast discussion page.

Posted by Jim Duncan

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24 Responses to March roars

  1. Shawn says:

    Yeah, I’m thinking maybe 2-4″, but we could get more. It would be very nice to get a very decent snowfall. I don’t think we will get anything above around 7″ though. I think that the Winter Storm Watches will push throughout almost all of Virginia before 5 pm. This still doesn’t mean that we will get a decent storm. The watches just mean that there is a very slight chance of heavy snow. We will surely find more out by tomorrow. I can just hope for the best.

  2. Jeff J says:

    Thanks DAC71. That sounds more realistic.

  3. DAC71 says:

    It’s best to wait until late tonight and into tomorrow morning for the NWS to issue any warnings. They’ve been burned before on these models just like the mets…so they need to take their time with it to see how the models are shaping up and get a clearer picture of the trajectory. A foot of snow won’t happen here…but if it does snow I’d bet on a solid 3-5″ of wet snow by the time it’s all done with and moves out.

  4. harrison says:

    I don’t see how we are going to get 8-14 inches of snow. If that was the case we would be under a winter storm warning right now. But I am keeping my fingers crossed for some snow.

  5. Jim VB says:

    Ray, you picked the worst that could happen. NAM at 00 hours suggests 5-6 inches instead

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ

    Further, the 06Z run shows the 0 line to have moved further to the north and west by about the distance from Richmond to Norfolk. If that’s the case, an estimate can be reached by going the same distance west on Ray’s post, getting a wide range from 2 inches to 10 inches.

    Further, I am suspicious of the whole thing. I have NEVER seen a major snowfall (since 1978) here that started out as rain. Either it is going to SNOW tomorrow at noon instead of rain, or there is not going to be much snow at all.

  6. T says:

    According to the NWS, it looks like we may finally see some accumulating snow, and maybe a good bit of it. Cross your fingers.

  7. Ray says:

    We here in Richmond…..are going to get buried!!! Solid 8-14 inches…hope everyone enjoys it! http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ

  8. jr. g says:

    At the moment most of the models are beginning to indicate a I95 BLIZZARD from NC TO MAINE with almost nothing out here in the Afton area. I know I would’nt believe it either untill its actually falling.

  9. Jeff J. says:

    I hope it snows but the rain is needed. I agree that it’s very hard for anyone to forecast weather accurately here. We’re smack between a mountain range and an ocean so the only way to get a big storm is a southern or coastal track and that’s like throwing darts at a map. For the last several years, the darts have been off the mark. Sooner or later, like in the 1980’s the tide will turn and people will be complaining about too much snow. It’s just a cycle thing.

  10. T says:

    We may not dodge the bullet this time.

  11. Jim VB says:

    They have had to scale the questions back to $32,000 because of the financial crisis. Also, because of the crisis, it might be hard to get that student loan. In fact, I think that the snow has had to be cut back due to the crisis; that’s why there is so little of it this year.

    This looks like a duplicate of the Inaugural Storm. Substantial snow was called for here, and substantial snow occurred in the Carolinas, but not here.

  12. DAC71 says:

    Well, to add to my previous statement now…I have no doubt RIC will see snow between Sunday and Tuesday. Now, whether or not it sticks to the ground (I don’t know), that’s the $64,000 question right there.

    If people are sick of the RIC mets being wrong, then take out some student loans, go to school for it, and get a job as a met somewhere, and try to do better. Be proactive instead of reactive right? Snow is tricky to call for Central VA because of our location…we all know that.

  13. jeff says:

    Trust me by Sunday the forcast will be changed to Richmond receiving the normal “cold rain”. Take it to the bank!

  14. Jeff says:

    I no longer believe it is possible to see accumulating snow in or around Richmond. Until I’m proven wrong, I’m not listening to a word any of these weather dudes has to say….they’ve been wrong a LOT more often than they’ve been right about this particular issue for quite some time now…

  15. Jim VB says:

    Glad I am not in North Carolina. If I were to move, it would be to Florida if it weren’t for the hurricanes. If it doesn’t snow, then it canes. You can’t win.

  16. J.T. says:

    I live in Roanoke & The weather reports here are all over the place. One channel says this the other says that. Its crazy. I remember growing up in Richmond as a kid and seeing the mountains getting all the snow, I have been here 2 years and have seen less than 10 inches the whole time. haha. I am hoping for all over Va. to get snow bc my mom really wants some too (She lives in Richmond) But it would be nice to get a little more here 😉

  17. dave says:

    central NC may hit the jackpot – let’s see, where have we heard that before? oh that’s right, all friggin season! i’m sorry but the one storm down there was a fluke, this is just becoming a repeatable pattern at this point of not only bad luck but defiance of normal behavior. i have never known raleigh to get more snow prospects than richmond, cville, dc. if it does pan out that way, i will really wonder what is going on. i am just glad we will get some rain this weekend. it’s been really dry this winter, and this and spring is when we normally stock up to get us through our summer droughts. a lot can happen between now and Sunday, so I still have hope that the track will take the storm so that Richmond is somewhere in the sweet spot. it would be great to get a storm just when everyone had given up on snow for another season. time will tell – fingers crossed!

  18. Liz says:

    I hope for some precip, even if it is just rain. We need it. Thanks for the blog Jim D., I check it everyday. Can’t wait to see what hurricane predictions are. ( :

  19. Ryan says:

    it will not snow, i dont’ see it happenning.

  20. Jenn says:

    OK, I’ll ask God for the 3-5″, be happy with the 1-3″ and accept that He knows best if we get only rain! 🙂

  21. DAC71 says:

    Two possibilities with God and your snow wishes. Either God listens and we get around 3″-5″ of snow west of RIC, and around 1″-3″ east of RIC. Or, he listens but tells you that you’re going to get some rain; and miss out on a majority of the snow accumulation and you “may” see some heavy, wet snow falling…but you’ll have to be up pretty late Sunday night and into Monday to see it.

    😉

  22. Jenn says:

    You are right Harrison…I’m praying real hard it will snow here. God never lets me down! 🙂

  23. harrison says:

    If you move to North Carolina, then it will snow here. Who knows, we might get some snow sunday night.:)

  24. Jenn says:

    I’m moving back to North Carolina!

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