March roars, Part II

Ok.  Things finally falling into place for a decent snowfall Sunday night through shortly after sunrise Monday.  Final in a series of storms affecting the region this weekend will be plowing northward from Georgia coast, bringing renewed rainfall Sunday afternoon and early evening, changing to snow before midnight timeframe.

Questions of how much moisture will depend on system’s track.  Hints of a more easterly course (from shorter-range model that is often very reliable) could mean very little snow, while closer to the coast trajectory (other models) implies several hours worth of moderate to heavy snow in pre-sunrise hours.

Warm ground temps should preclude accumulations at onset of changeover, but thereafter could see quick few inches before tapering off.  Too early for any more detail, but check back.

Posted by Jim Duncan,  2/28 afternoon

UPDATE, 2/28 late evening:  Latest run of model guidance referred to above is now more agressive with precip. amounts.  Our NBC12 forecast as of earlier this evening calling for 2-4″ Sunday night, but my gut feeling is this could be higher based on trends I’m seeing.  Worth watching for updates.  Jim

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44 Responses to March roars, Part II

  1. DT says:

    I think we’re due for one of those days when they call for 3-4″ and we wake up to 12″+. That would be typical Richmond.

  2. Kristin says:

    DARE I GET MY HOPES UP NOW???? I’m so scared to hope for an actual snowfall this time, I’ve been disappointed all winter long and now as we get closer to Spring we may FINALLY get the snow. But I remain the skeptic here, I still stay, I WILL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT. When I wake up tomorrow and there is at least 4 or more inches of snow the ground then I’ll be convinced! BUT here’s to HOPING for the best!

  3. harrison says:

    8-12 inches? who am i suppose to believe?

  4. Scott says:

    The Weather channel is forcasting 8-12inches….NOAA is forecasting 5-9 inches…..all local channels here 4-6….I don’t care what we get as long as we FINALLY GET A REAL Storm!!! Let it snow!!!

  5. DAW says:

    Please Mr. Duncan, make it snow. Please!

  6. T says:

    Got soaking rains yesterday, and hopefully an end to the snow drought by tomorrow…

  7. harrison says:

    Rick I was looking at the liquid amount. Sorry my mistake. 🙂

  8. Kevin says:

    Let it snow! Hoping it gets and stays below freezing. The latest radar check (Sun. 9:30 a.m.) shows plenty of moisture to the south that is heading our way. This is our best chance for accumulating snow that I’ve seen for quite some time in Richmond! I predict 7” in RIC!!!!

  9. GackerGator says:

    Ahaha. I’m praying for snow here. Even though basically all of the weather models are saying that we could get 2-5 inches, I’m not holding my breath. I’ve been in Chesterfield for 10 years, and everything is so varied. I remember about 7 years ago, they were calling for at most a flurry, and low and behold when I wake up, I find a foot of snow at my doorstep.

    As a student at CCPS, I would LOVE a day off.

  10. TeacherLady says:

    And since we’ve no place to go, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.
    The irony of this whole storm for 8th & 10th grade English teachers is that while we’ve been BEGGING for snow all winter, now that we’re supposed to administer the SOL writing test tomorrow through Wednesday, it looks like we’ll actually get at least a day or two off of school. This will throw our testing schedule WAY off, but I’m still thrilled at the prospect of a real snowfall. Bring on the hot chocolate!

  11. tyler says:

    henrico county is under a winter strom WARNING. 8-12 inches expected. Well, expected. we will see what happens soon enough…

  12. Tom says:

    Everyone is predicting several inches now, and TWC say 8 to 12 inches. This means we might actually get some snow this time!

  13. james says:

    this looks like the real deal now. all reports that i’ve heard are leaning towards a broad swath (incl Richmond Metro) of 6-10″ of snow. i suppose it is time to get the milk and bread – too bad ukrops is closed today…

  14. Mike says:

    Just passing by.Btw, you website have great content!

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  15. jwar says:

    If you want to argue about weather, visit forums.accuweather.com or easternuswx.com.. we wouldn’t want this blog to be shut down due to aggression!

    In the meantime, I’ll be hoping for the best (2 feet)

  16. DAC71 says:

    Yes, it is stupid to ARGUE about weather on a weather blog…please. To discuss weather is fine, to agree to disagree is fine. But to give people shit for it is stupid. It’s not the first time I’ve seen people sniping at each other (as if there’s anything anyone can do about it). It’s a weather blog, and what Jim or any other Met at NBC 12 says is information…it’s not Gospel. Maybe I should have used the term “being belligerent”. That’s all I was getting at. Sorry to have sparked you off as well…but hey, it’s just a “weather blog”, so why even bother right?

  17. J-Reid says:

    well then it seems if you always live in virginia, then you will be skeptical about every snow even ever predicted here because there are sooooooooooo many factors and its nearly impossible for you to predict exactly what is going to happen. I personally hope we get 4+ inches of snow so I can have a couple days off from school and baseball for that matter. Who knows, by tomorrow we should be able to know thats for sure lol

  18. ryan says:

    so if we get snow how much are we getting? I hate being lied to, thats why I’m skeptical about this snow event.

  19. tyler says:

    Its sleeting in west henrico right now…. looks like the temps took a dip below/at freezing…

  20. Rick says:

    Hey Harrison…just wondering what models called for .5 inch…I’ve seen the 18z NAM and GFS and they both bury Richmond…also the EURO and 0zNAM give RIC quite a bit..I think you might be looking at the .5 liquid which would come out to 5 inches of snow.

  21. Jenn says:

    Don’t forget the most important ingredent….PRAY FOR SNOW!!!

  22. David says:

    RE: Arguing about this stuff on a weather blog is stupid. Really? It’s stupid to argue about weather on a weather blog? Please. It’s quite amusing whether you disagree or not. This blog has done wonders with creating a great weather discussion and I think most people will disagree with what you said. Anyway, here’s to some sort of snow tomorrow!!

  23. harrison says:

    I cant see over 2 inches happening, some of the models I have looked at are only calling for a half inch in richmond. But I guess I will believe it when I see it. ( P.S. I was being sarcastic in my last comment about the milk and bread Jeff)

  24. T says:

    Richmond will see some snow; its already snowing in Memphis and they are expecting snow in the deep south. I will take anything as long as its more than what we have gotten already this season (<1 inch).

  25. DAC71 says:

    We can be certain of one thing among all of the arguing and crap here…either it’s going to snow or it’s not! So wait and see. Those who said “it’s just going to rain” can congratulate themselves if it does. Those who said “we’re going to get snow”, the same applies. Arguing about this stuff on a weather blog is stupid.

  26. Sarah says:

    Ohh, if we could get enough to make a snowman even if it’s a litte one we’d be thrilled. Not getting my hopes up though we’ve been let down to many times this year

  27. Jim VB says:

    I was looking at Chester. I managed to see all three snowfall total maps – of WTVR, WRIC and WWBT. All of them say 2-3 inches for Chester and a couple of them put Chester on the border between 1-2 and 2-4. Two of them predicted warmer temperatures (like 65) later in the week, so any snow will not last long. And by the way, all of them broke away from sports events enough to present the news and forecasts of this storm.

  28. Jeff J. says:

    Jim VB, you could be right. The National Weather Service site does seem to be leaning towards less snow but we’ll have to wait and see.

  29. Hunter says:

    news at 6 says metro richmond is going to get 2-4 inches! Usually we are on the line between a dusting and 1-3 inches…but i like the chances for this storm!! Hopefully henrico county schools will be closed!!

  30. Jeff says:

    Yeah….keep getting yourselves all worked up….go out and stand in line to get bread…and I’ll be laughing my ass off when all we get is rain, if that

  31. Jim VB says:

    Jeff, that looks like the local akq weather forecast discussion. Sounds like the discusser is not at all sure about this storm, that it is hard to tell what kind of precipitation and how much us akqers are going to get.

  32. Jeff J says:

    I pulled that from the National Weather Service site. I don’t know if it’s correct or not. Just sharing info.

  33. harrison says:

    Everybody better go to the store tomorrow and get their milk and bread.

  34. scottj says:

    too bad thats the only thing that has a forecast like that jeff j. everything is saying 3″ plus if not that wayyy more! why would you listen to that? if that was true i think we would see a winter weather advisory not a WINTER STORM WATCH

  35. Shawn says:

    No I think that it will end up snowing but only around 2 or 3″. Nothing big.

  36. Jim VB says:

    The official NOAA forecast is out. There is a Winter Storm Warning, which says up to 4 inches. Some predictions I have seen are as high as 14 inches. This much snow has the capacity to create a major disruption for the Richmond area, including cancellations, traffic accidents and blockings, disrupted deliveries and pickups and hard to travel streets. So therefore I would like very much to hear what the WWBT meteorologists have to say about this storm at 6, including any snowfall amounts maps they may have.

    Unfortunately, we may not get this at 6 o’clock tonight. This is because a golf tournament threatens it. Channel 12 may broadcast the golf instead of the winter storm forecast. To me, a snowstorm that can cause major disruptions should take precedence over any golf tournament. True, we can see it at 11, but by then conditions could have changed. I would like to hear what WWBT says about the storm at 6.

  37. harrison says:

    bet you by tomorrow all the forecast will say rain.

  38. Jeff J says:

    NWS has gone from snow to rain/snow. I smell another dud.

  39. MDBG says:

    PLEASE SNOW A FEW INCHES!!

  40. Kristin says:

    In light of Jim’s comment about the shorter range model saying it will probably take an easterly corse meaning less snowfall around here. All I am going to say is: I WILL BELIEVE IT WHEN I SEE IT!

  41. Jack says:

    IMHO I think the 00z runs tonight are going to trend slightly West…putting RIC in the sweet spot for some hefty snowfall!

  42. CFieldTeacher says:

    Let’s hope for a few inches! I’d love to see 3-5 inches Sunday night, as a teacher in Chesterfield I could use a day off 🙂

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