Storm on track as expected, but still potential complicating factors with respect to predicted snow totals. Changeover time to all snow from west to east will be critical for initial burst of heavy precip. late Sunday evening. Lull could develop wee hours of morning (after 1am), pointing to intensity questions for later night time period.
Note that this is not a classic long-duration snowstorm…that type needs high pressure near New England to help suppress storm velocity northward. Arctic high in this case is more west, near upper Great Lakes, so coastal storm should move along quickly.
Also, our biggest snows tend to feature more of an east-northeasterly fetch off the Atlantic for at least half a day or longer. This situation will bring more of a north, then northwesterly flow by early Monday, which will help cut off appreciable moisture rapidly.
All this taken into consideration, still one of our more sizable potential snowstorms in a long time. Best guess for totals for now is 4-6″, maybe a bit higher west of RIC. I will post updates on the bottom of this blog post later today.
Posted by Jim Duncan, 11:25am 3/1.
UPDATE, 4:33pm 3/1: Everything pretty much falling into place as expected, except there has been earlier snow to west of RIC that is sticking already, so any grand totals will obviously be higher in those spots. (Snowing now in the city too).
Rest of us still should see the rain/sleet mix turning to snow this evening. Have nagging concern that after midnight, precip. intensity may decrease, but still comfortable with forecast. Check out Sagay’s discussion on main forecast page for more info. Jim