Ever hear a weather broadcaster use the expression, “our weather should be …”? For example, it was 48 degrees today, but it “should be” 70. We (meteorologists) all fall into that trap every once in awhile.
I’ve heard this type of phrasing used repeatedly lately on a local radio station by some of their nationally-based meteorologists. Rainfall is the latest weather villain in vogue. We all know we need the rain, but you would think we haven’t had any at all this year when statistics going back to January are quoted.
Our deficit since then is running nearly 9″ below the average. Sounds pretty bad. But if we go back 6 months, the numbers aren’t nearly as dire sounding, and going back two years things look OK as well.
The point is just that I think we should quit thinking of our weather as “should-be”. Looking back at statistics is interesting, but can be hugely distorted by choosing the time frame of reference.
Posted by Jim Duncan