El Nino pattern holding true

Best wisdom in the science of how El Nino affects our weather in this part of the globe seems to be holding true, as the meteorological crystal ball foretells more wet weather and above-normal temperatures.

A strong southern jet stream and lack of any really cold air, at least east of the Mississippi, means more of the same, i.e. frequent dousings of heavy rain from southern-tracking storms.  This week promises another BIG storm coming our way from the Deep South.  More such storms are also showing up in the extended outlooks.

Last winter brought early-season blasts of cold air and record-setting heavy snow across the upper Midwest to New England.  Not so this year, at least for now.

The pattern will be featuring more cold air and snow opportunities well to our north within the next couple of weeks, but prospects look dim around here for snow fans.

*by Jim Duncan


9 Responses to El Nino pattern holding true

  1. Sean says:

    We usually get out biggest snow from nor’easters. The “snowy” ones occur when a shot of cold air comes in at the same time as the moisture from the south. Coincidence is mainly involved.

    This year has potential because there will be many storms moving across a southern storm track.

  2. EricWG says:

    What factors typically make for the biggest snow totals for Richmond? What indicators do you look for?

    • Sirius...The Star Dog says:

      Moderate el Nino (like this year) and stratospheric winds above the equator blowing east (like this year).

      These conditions produce Miller ‘A’ storms (LOWs originate in the Gulf of Mexico or the near-shore waters of GA and come up the coast) and a weakened polar vortex which allows arctic air to drain into low latitudes.

  3. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    I drove a Pontiac El Nino for a few years in college. The piece of crap finally caught fire in a K-Mart parking lot.

  4. don says:

    Back in the spring you mentioned the volcano erupting could affect our weather this winter since the ash stays in the atmosphere for a long time. Is this still a factor?

    • nbc12weather says:

      I think it might have played a role in the cool summer, particularly across the north, but there are many other,, much more important factors most likely in play (El Nino e.g.)

  5. pcasey says:

    In one of your earlier blog entries you said it would be warmer than normal but we’d have above average snow (might have been Andrew). I was thinking “you can’t get there from here”.

    Seems this might shape up like winter of 2006. We had all of these deluge rains storms . . . which turned my yard in to a mud hole. Finally, later in the winter the El Nino broke and my yard was finally dry again only because it froze. But it was a dry pattern . . . . It’s tough to be a snow fan around here!

    • nbc12weather says:

      You can get there from here, but my “guess” is for late winter. All will hinge on one big nor’easter. I’ve seen it happen in another El Nino winter, Feb ’83 heavy snow following an unusally warm winter. It’s all a gamble.

      • pcasey says:

        Was el Nino more of a weather abberration in the past? Or is it that I did not used to pay attention when I was younger? Also, was winter of 95 – 96 an el Nino year? I bought a new dirt bike and was itching to go riding in the spring and it seemed to never stopped snowing. I don’t have a new dirt bike this year so I’m all about “getting there from here.


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