Cold, but any snow?

The weather pattern will turn quite cold over the East this second half of December, but will any moisture merge within this more wintry cycle?

As I’ve mentioned before, computer guidance beyond the 48-72 hour time frame is often unreliable with respect to storms, but can usually pick up on major jet stream configurations that establish the general trends.

It looks clear that arctic air will launch repeated assaults over the next two weeks. The storm tracks will also keep favoring southern stream moisture and concurrent northern clipper-type storms.  The million dollar question remains… will the southern systems keep zipping off to the south and east, as seems to be the forecast trend, or will one of them brush close enough to bring us some snow.

This could be interesting to watch through the end of this month.

*by Jim Duncan

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21 Responses to Cold, but any snow?

  1. Lissa says:

    to heck with Ukrops…lol……….who’s in for a beer run? Let it snow……………… I just cant wait! And i even had to give over my snow boots to my kid last March….lucky me….my sis tossed hers my way as they no longer fit……
    ……..

  2. Weather Nut says:

    My buddy Joe Bastadi over at accuweather.com has all the info you need for the snow storm this weekend and Christmas weekend too.

    Get ya shovels out folks!! Ukrops get ready!!

  3. steve says:

    What website do you go to to find the long range computer models?

    • Sean says:

      Yeah same here, I would like to see the models before the are posted on the NWS site. They only give 72 hours ahead. Anyways, it does look like we could get some snow this weekend.

  4. rainy wyn says:

    I’m impressed by all the meterological knowledge out there.I suppose like arboriculture, it’s an art and a science but shifting variable changes.

  5. Andrew says:

    To Sirius the Dog Star…
    Have you seen the long range GFS for this Christmas storm? Is this weekend really looking like snow?

    • Sirius...The Star Dog says:

      That’s Star Dog…not Dog Star! 😉

      Today’s North American model (NAM) output shows light snow beginning @ RIC early SAT morning (~2 AM)…picking up in intensity around 5 AM…continuing at moderate intensity through sunrise…then tapering off before ending around 10 AM.

      Early call for RIC: 3 – 5″.

      Storm track…as always is key. If the low level wind remains E…then it’s rain mainly. If it backs to the NE then N as forecast currently…then it’s all snow.

  6. Phil Riggan says:

    Who’s got Dec. 19 in the “Snowcaster of the Year” contest? FWW Team has been hinting at a chance for Saturday snow.

  7. Robert Smith says:

    A STRENGTHENING GULF SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE SE ATLC COAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE NWRN FRINGE OF THE PCPN FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
    WHERE CRITICAL TEMPS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A LOW THREAT FOR 4 INCH AMTS IS INDICATED OVER THE NC MTNS FOR THIS PERIOD ENDING 12Z/SAT USING A CONSENSUS OF
    THE 00Z MODEL QPF GUIDANCE.

    HEDGE

  8. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    Yesterday the European had us shoveling snow this weekend…now the GFS is coming on-board…too.

    Arctic Oscillation below -4
    North Atlantic Oscillation below -6
    More importantly…Pacific North American +2 and rising.

    Cold air supply + amplifying mid-level flow + surface dew points in the teens = SNOW!

  9. kristinrosemoon says:

    Don’t get my hopes up Jim! I refuse to get my hopes up…

  10. Chris says:

    it isn’t even officially winter yet, i am however tired of all the rain, maybe at some point the temps will conicide with precipitation.

  11. Robert Smith says:

    Can we expect La Nina through Winter 2009-2010?

    La Niña episodes are associated with three prominent changes in the wintertime atmospheric flow across the eastern North Pacific and North America. The first is an amplification of the climatological mean wave pattern and increased meridional flow across the continent and the eastern North Pacific. The second is increased blocking activity over the high latitudes of the eastern North Pacific. The third is a highly variable strength of the jet stream over the eastern North Pacific, with the mean jet position entering North America in the northwestern United States/ southwestern Canada. Accompanying these conditions, large portions of central North America experience increased storminess, increased precipitation, and an increased frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks, while the southern states experiences less storminess and precipitation. Also, there tend to be considerable month-to-month variations in temperature, rainfall and storminess across central North America during the winter and spring seasons, in response to the more variable atmospheric circulation throughout the period

  12. Robert Smith says:

    When sufficient cold air invades Virginia from the west and northwest, frontal storms may cause heavy snowfalls. Two of the states most dramatic frontal snowstorms of recent years occurred during the Christmas holidays of 1966 and 1969. In both cases, the Storm tracked along the Gulf and the east coasts and crossed over Tidewater Virginia; a strong east and northeast flow brought moist air across the state, overriding cold air from the west. While heavy snows are common in the Piedmont region, the average winter does not have a major coastal snowstorm, and heavy winter snows usually are confined to the mountainous areas of the state

  13. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    I don’t think that question is worth a million dollars. A hundred grand, maybe…but a million?? That’s Al Roker kind of money.

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