Four Thoughts on Saturday’s Snow

The ingredients are holding together for snow lovers.  Here are a few wrinkles in this upcoming storm that you may want to discuss in the comments section:

1. In Richmond and the Tri-Cities, this will likely start as rain or a very wet snow Friday evening.  The changeover to all snow should happen some time overnight or Saturday morning.  A slower changeover than expected could cut into snow totals in Richmond. 

Western counties like Goochland that get all snow will get the biggest totals.  New Kent and Charles City will see lower amounts.

2. This has the potential to be a mess on the roads.  Rain at the start will bring wet roads,  Then the snow to follow will cool the road bed enough to freeze up that water.  So roads could end up icy with snow on top Saturday.  A sub-freezing night and a cold day Sunday won’t allow for much melting.

3.  Could be a big one just to our west, while we look on with envy. In Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg it could be a heavy snowstorm.  8-12″ + of snow out there looks like a good bet.  *midday Thursday update: those high totals are looking likely just North and West of Richmond, and in Richmond could easily get 4-8″*

4.  The timing of this will annoy area students and teachers:  The first day of winter break for our first decent snow of the year?  That means you don’t get to enjoy a day off classes on Monday.  You’ll already be home!

*by Andrew Freiden

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31 Responses to Four Thoughts on Saturday’s Snow

  1. Unique and original clocks made from blank and unwanted CD’s…

    […]Four Thoughts on Saturday’s Snow « NBC12 Weather Blog[…]…

  2. DrewE says:

    I would LOVE to see 6-9 inches at least in the Chesterfield/Midlothian area.

    My dog just absolutely loves the snow, and she is just so cute prancing around in it =)

  3. Steve C says:

    I’ve been watching such wintery weather forecasts for Richmond for years. Here’s the translation: Snow just about everywhere in the state, except for the Richmond area, where we will be deluged with cold, dreary rain. There will be a brief period of time where it will snow in Richmond so hard that you’ll think, “hey, this is it. This is wonderful.” Then after ten minutes it will turn back to cold, dreary rain. And some weatherman, somewhere in town, will gayly announce, “Good news. We dodged a bullet.” I know how I’d like to see that dodged bullet used.

    • kristinrosemoon says:

      If that happens I think I will pack up and move to the mountains Sunday. I can’t stand missing out on snow again.

  4. Teacher in Chester says:

    I love snow, and could care less if it comes when it would cancel school. I have a 3 year old who will be thrilled if it snows.

  5. JPal says:

    I wish it would stall out a little and not arrive around here until Saturday eve. Any chance of a 12-24hr stall??

  6. Sandy says:

    I hate to be the “Bah! Humbug!” but we really don’t need any more precipitation for awhile. Anybody that works outside or digs in the ground, can tell you that the soil is just sloppy wet already. Can’t dig, can’t till, and at this rate it might be weeks before we can get back to work. Sorry, but I hope it all slides south or north of us and just goes out into the Atlantic. (But it sure would be pretty!)

  7. VAnative says:

    OH this has ruined my day. All of my 36 years of living I wanted to see a white Christmas so bad and then I ventute to FL and I read this. 😦 I know that these systems are tricky but just the idea of this, that it could happen. I was looking at another weather site and it mentioned how it may snow Christmas eve and Christmas day. In all honesty if I could I would take a trip up to VA just to see this beautiful snow. But I can’t get the time off.

  8. Kristin Thomas says:

    I think I will CRY a river if this storm doesn’t happen. But I’ve been looking at the models and this seems to be a sure thing. Something is going to fall and it’s going to be cold enough for some frozen precip. I’m thinking between 5-6″ around the Ric. Metro area, unless the storm REALLY gets cranking, then maybe I will liberally say 8″. I am seriously hoping for the EIGHT! COME ON SNOW!!!
    Accuweather is hinting at the possibility of another storm for Christmas Eve and Day. SNOW on Xmas Day that would be a dream come true!!

    • afreiden says:

      Kristin and others,

      Keep in mind those models are only models. They are not showing what’s definitely going to happen. Having been here a while I know the models will be wrong in some way or another.
      We could easily get a miss on the low side if some rain or sleet mixing in Friday night/Saturday morning OR if the storm zips quickly away from the coast Saturday afternoon.

      • Mighty Dyckerson says:

        Andrew is right, people. Computer models cannot take the place of human beings…and right now my joints are telling me we’re in for a doozy of a blizzard.

      • kristinrosemoon says:

        Hey a person can hope and dream right! Especially if you live around here all your life like I have!

  9. BT says:

    This seems to be a very early and heavy snow for us this year. Will the big winter prediction hold up for the rest of the year? Hoping that if we are getting this much in Dec, Feb/March will be HUGE!!!

  10. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    This morning’s NAM is ugly.

    Brief period of light snow FRI night into first hour or two of SAT…changing to rain rain/snow mix…then changing to heavy snow by late morning continuing until dark…with minor additional accums overnight.

    Center of the 700 LOW passes close to RIC.

    Sticking with 7 – 9″ at RIC.

  11. J says:

    what is the site for NAM and GFS??

  12. ryan says:

    bring on a foot baby! and this time it will stick around a while!

  13. KMD says:

    The 12z NAM is quite the blockbuster. If it were to confirm, we’d be breaking out yardsticks.

  14. Matthew says:

    Nbc12 Weather Team i am in Glen Allen, Virginia on the west side of the storm how much snow should we get?

  15. Smoke Em says:

    I’ve got a really have a good feeling about this. NOAA is pushing precip chances up near 100% on Sat. and it WILL be cold enough. I predict 6″ with heady hopes of 10″.

  16. PG Girl says:

    I’m predicting this one will be another big DUD for central VA and sticking with first big storm in early January.

  17. Joan Cannon says:

    We really “need” this snow in New Kent. I’m watching hoping the forecast will change!!

  18. Phil Riggan says:

    Good point Kimberly. Andrew will have to crack out the Snowcaster of the Year emails from the First Warning Weather vault and see who chose Dec. 18 or Dec. 19….we need just one inch of snow to qualify.

  19. Andrew says:

    The cold will be here, I am not certain on the Rain event in downtown Richmond, also looking at higher ends 8-10 is my prediction in Dwntwn Richmond.

  20. Kimberly says:

    Well, it’s just my luck that I live in Charles City and we will get the lowest snow totals. I and the kids will still be happy to see “any” snow. And I don’t even mind if I don’t win the snowcaster of the year:)

  21. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    Way underdone for RIC…AF.

    NAM showing all snow starting around 2AM SAT continuing all day. Big-time burst btwn 7AM and
    1PM…1+ / HR…then tapering off before ending 7PM SUN!

    Lo-level wind direction comes into the area during the entire event from over land…not over the buzz-killing warmer Atlantic waters.

    Pencil me in for 7-9″ at RIC.

  22. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    Here’s another thought: If you lay 20 NBC12 Weather Radios on the ground and tie them all together, they make an excellent sled!

  23. scs says:

    Wish I had stayed in Va last weekend instead of going to Atlantic City!! Now I have to be out finishing Christmas shopping instead of wrapping gifts, sipping hot chocolate, and watching it SNOW! I guess you reap what you “snow”! Well, I do have off Mon and Tue. could finish shopping then.

  24. Lou says:

    I’ve been looking at the 2009-2010 winter predictions for alot of different websites and they all have the area around Northern NC, all of Virginia, Marylad and Delaware as a cold and snowy area. But places to the north of that are not shown as snowy we might get more snow in VA this year than they do in New York!!!

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