If again, then when

The next storm affecting us will be mainly rain for Christmas Day (some frz rain possible early), with a storm track well to our west.  However, looking ahead, this pattern will keep weather forecasters on alert for the next couple of weeks.

There is no fundamental change in the cards, with a very active southern storm track still indicated on the longer-range models.  More Southeast coastal storminess certainly looks plausible into the first week of January. 

* by Jim Duncan

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31 Responses to If again, then when

  1. Sean says:

    Quite a few haha.

  2. Joseph says:

    Have you seen the latest Euro?

  3. Sean says:

    Not looking good at the moment, looks like rain for Richmond.

  4. Matt says:

    Let’s hope temps are cold enough for snow later in the week.

  5. pcasey says:

    My yard is a mud hole. i wish it would get cold so at least it would freeze.

  6. WeatherNut says:

    Should I buy myself a snowblower for the rest
    of this winter?

  7. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    Matt…I know what I know about meteorology b/c my major in college was meteorology.

    Penn State Maps…
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

    National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)…
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

    Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies…
    http://wxmaps.org/pix/forecasts.html

    Unisys…
    http://weather.unisys.com/index.html

    College of DuPage…
    http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

    Storm Prediction center (SPC)…
    http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

  8. Shawn says:

    Yeah, I agree with J a little. They usually have right that there will be a storm, but they don’t now if it will be snow, ice, or rain. I remember about two weeks ago, there was supposed to be an East Coast blizzard on Christmas according to AccuWeather.

    • Sirius...The Star Dog says:

      Never could understand why Accu-Wx was honking a Xmas snowstorm b/c none of the LR forecast models ever showed anything other that the LOW going through the Great Lakes.

  9. Matt says:

    NBC12 Storm Team,
    What is the latest on the upcoming storms?

  10. Shawn says:

    Weather.com is saying that the storm will be all snow. Looking at the forecasted radar by weather.com, the snow will linger around for 3 days!!

  11. Matt says:

    Weather.com’s 10-day forecast is calling for rain/snow showers Dec. 31-Jan. 1 because highs will be in the low- mid 40’s. Nbc12 or Sirius, Could colder air move into our area before the storm so we see just snow? And if we see rain and snow, will there be any significant accumulation?

    • Matt says:

      What do you think Mighty?

      • Mighty Dyckerson says:

        I’m glad you asked. My latest computer guidance tells me a complex weather system will be bringing colder air into the area…but above that colder air will be warmer air, with another layer of colder air on top. So any precip will freeze, melt, and freeze again before hitting the ground, where it will then explode.

  12. Shawn says:

    Some places are saying that the Dec 31 storm will just fizzle out on the East coast. I hope for another foot or two of snow.

  13. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    Y’all may recall the long-range models around mid-month depicted strong arctic HIGHs plunging south from Canada pushing cold fronts deep into the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

    When the time came…the HIGHs were not as quite as strong and the fronts did not advance quite as far into the GOM. This ‘cold bias’ is a systematic error of numerical wx prediction. The effect was…last weekend’s storm formed closer to the TX coast and was able to make the left turn off I-10 and come up I-95.

    Now…these same forecast models are showing the same type of solutions toward month’s end…where the cold fronts are pushed deep into the GOM and the surface waves that form along them end up going out to sea as they move east.

    Look for another plowable-snow chance late next week or early in the first full week of JAN.

    • Matt says:

      What percent chance do you think there will be plowable snow in Richmond over the next couple weeks?

      • Sirius...The Star Dog says:

        Probability is more than picking a number…so my number is little more than a guess based on current and forecast conditions.

        There’s every indication the cold air is here to stay for a while…in fact…the Week2 forecast suggests over-night low temperatures to be lowest of the winter to date.

        The storm track will likely continue to shift between ‘up the coast’ and ‘up the OH Valley’…altho ‘up the coast’ should be the favored track.

        I give it a 60% chance…a value which the NWS associates with ‘likely’…for at least one plowable snow event in RIC before the next two weeks are out.

  14. Matt says:

    This is a forecast for the rest of the 2009-2010 winter.

  15. Matt says:

    I saw that too Shawn. Will definitely be something to watch for. What is the cause for this colder and snowier weather pattern along the east coast? I read an article posted on accuweather early in November and they showed a map of the forecasted El Nino and it turns out they were right because S.E. U.S. was forecasted to be colder and snowier.

  16. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    I hope the precipitation won’t interfere with tracking Kris Kringle…

  17. Shawn says:

    A lot of places are saying that there is chance for a snowstorm December 29-30. Accuweather is also discussing a storm on Jan 1-3 and Jan 5

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