Southern clipper

A quick-moving storm the end of this coming week will warp eastward out of the southern Rockies, potentially brushing our area with a light snowfall by early Friday morning, but if it materializes, it most likely won’t be anything to get excited about.

The cold air will be plentiful, and ironically that’s part of the problem for snow-lovers.  The northern jet stream directing the arctic air southward will also keep the storm track pretty far south, so that we may not see much moisture at all from that storm.  Worth keeping an eye on though.

*by Jim Duncan


55 Responses to Southern clipper

  1. Michael says:

    Unless this thing swing a little farther south and can quickly form in the Atlantic, and hug the coast, this is not going to be much of anything other then some flurries. How come whenever its gets this cold, its dry, and when its moist, it has to be warm and rainy. Can’t it ever be cold and moist> haha guess not….that just not how it works…

  2. matt says:

    I tried staying hopeful for this storm but it’s just not looking good for any kind of accumulating snows out of this storm. In fact I wouldn’t be suprised if we don’t even see a flake. You all know how storms from the west are.

  3. Jeff J says:

    Just flurries on Friday….

  4. Lou says:

    I read the terms of use agreement. Does everything have to have a terms of use agreement these days? I mean come on its a weather blog lolol

  5. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    Uncle Fred, put away the tractor, and Aunt Mabel, get the kids in from the yard, cuz this one’s gonna be bigger than a Texas twister in August.

  6. J.r says:

    The GFS struggles with winter storms along the Atlantic seaboard 4 to 5 days out, the EURO and CANADIAN are better winter models for the medium range. Each of the 2 snowstorms in Virginia this winter has been modeled to stay to the southeast of the state up until 48 -60 hours before the storm began. There likely won’t be a agreed upon track from the models probably till Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. There is a distinct possibilty of a larger snowstorm for Virginia than is currently being shown, however I am not saying a big storm will happen, it likely won’t. But don’t be surprissed if the models start to bring a larger storm closer to us over the next 48 hours.

  7. Jim B says:

    20100104 00Z GFS run is out. It suggests storm weaker and farther south than previous runs. It seems to say hardly any snow at all.

  8. Chris says:

    anyone seen the predicted highs for next weekend? may only see highs in the upper 20’s. Thats why i don’t think we will see anyhing out of this system. we need systems thatcome from the south. a few years ago we had a stretch where highs never got out of the 30’s but no snow.

  9. Huh? says:

    Weathernut…confirmation from whom? Jack Daniels and Sam Adams? I’m guessing that was sarcasm based on your last statement though?

  10. WeatherNut says:

    I just got confirmation. Major snow storm again for our area Thursday/Friday. Totals will be close to last time if not greater because of all the cold air in place. Also heard that schools may close early this coming Wednesday just to be on the safe side and won’t open again until early April.

  11. Jim B says:

    Why do you all believe the maxest hype? I remember with the 2007 February 14 storm that about 4-5 days before, GFS was calling for 2 feet of snow here. Warmer air got aloft a couple of days later, and then the predictions were essentially for 2 inches of ice. When the storm came, it was 1.5 inches of rain at 35 degrees. North of here it was about an inch of ice. And note that the NOAA discusser is hesitant about calling for a big storm because not all the pieces are there.

  12. Wow says:

    I can’t believe some of these comments….the majority of you obviously have no meteorology background and rely on accuweather for info?Accuweather is probably the least respected source and almost always over hypes any snow. You can’t predict Friday snow on the previous Monday, nothing will become certain until Wed pm or Thu am. NWS only has a 40% of snow and it’s 4 days out. So much can change so give the NBC12 guys a break, even the best weathermen can’t accurately predict snow this far out.

  13. kristinrosemoon says:

    No offense Jim and other 12 weatherteam members, but I HOPE you guys are wrong and accuweather is right. National Weather Service has even got us in snow for Thurs. night and Friday. I’ll take any decent snow at this point, especially since I know it’ll stick around for a day or two w/the cold weather in place.

  14. Michael says:

    Well, with this high pressure dominating up north, and if it stays there, it could push this storm to the south, and if the trough gets deep enough, as Accuweather said, everyday they have come in, it looks as if the storm will get pushed farther south. It is also just going to depend on how long this storm takes to get organized, if, like this last one, it takes untill it gets up to maine, then it probably won’t be much. Most likely, Since i’m only a high school student, my idea on this is porbably totally wrong. Thats just what I got from all of my weather sources. This 1/10 of precip. to 4 inches of snow is a good estimate of the storm, it wont take much to drown us in another winter wonderland. hehe Im keeping my fingers crossed!

  15. matt says:

    All I know is Joe Bastardi picked up on the 09 blizzard way before the local mets started talking about it. Now he’s on board for a big snow this coming up Thursday-Friday somewhere along the mid-Atlantic.

    I realize as local mets they have to stay on the cautious side of things. I’m just waiting to see if things start to change on our local forecasts as the week goes on. With that said, we’ve all seen these types of storms miss us to the south.

    • Michael says:

      He saw it coming at the start of the week. Even the weather channel had trouble picking up on it. It took them till that day to get an idea of what was going on.

  16. Virginia tree man says:

    Channel 12 missed the last snow accumulation amounts the day before along with channel 6. Channel 8 was dead on. All my internet sources we’re dead on.

  17. joe says:

    All I have to say is when Joe Bastardi starts getting excited you better watch out. The man is a winter weather genius! No offense Jim!

  18. Emily says:

    When you see percentages in weather predictions, it doesn’t mean that there is a n% chance a certain weather event will happen. It means that when looking at past situations, a certain weather event takes place n% of the time. For instance, when calling for a 50% chance of blizzard that doesn’t mean there’s a 50/50 chance one could happen; that means that when given the same weather conditions that are predicted, it will produce a blizzard 50% of the time. That’s a BIG difference from a 50% chance of a blizzard. That being said, given the predicted weather conditions, the blizzard prediction is FAR LESS than 50%.

    We’re all going to work (or school) on Friday b/c this is not the type of scenario that produces significant accumulations.

    • Sean says:

      It only takes an inch or two to shutdown schools in temps like these. Back in 04 (I think) we had a clipper much like this that only dropped about 2 inches, it compacted quickly though and became so slick, it took me an hour to get home from school about 1.5 miles away.

  19. HooFan says:

    Before we had the last snowstorm none of the local weather stations were predicting much of anything and even up to the day before some were still not on board. Models are unpredictable so we will just have to see!!!

  20. hamlinfan says:

    i mean look at your forecast…. a CHANCE of snow and a m flurries POSSIBLE. COME ON??? anybody can say that

  21. hamlinfan says:

    jim d. your a buzz killer. get over it and say what the people wanna hear you say!!!!! i mean, come on??? your a WEATHERMAN!!!!!!!!!!! just say there is a 50% chance of a blizzard.

    • pcasey says:

      I’m not Jim, but If I understand correctly the storm will come from the west, which has not traditionally caused big snow for us. Joe Bastardi says that this one is different because of the fact that 1/10 inch of precip is 4 inches of snow . . . because of the cold air. This ratio is probably higher than it was in the December event. Might be interesting.

  22. nbc12weather says:

    Don’t know where this blizzard talk got started either, but as mentioned in my blog post, this looks like it won’t be much. Newest computer guidance doesn’t show more than very light precip. at best. Trends could change, but that’s what it looks like for now.
    Jim D.

  23. Snowman says:

    Snow! Did someone say snow?

  24. Shawn says:

    It think we will miss school on Friday, but I don’t think it will be enough to close schools on Monday.

  25. Stephanie says:

    I just want a 2 hr delay in to school. Maybe?

  26. Sean says:

    Where does this blizzard talk come from? It’s a clipper…

  27. pcasey says:

    I’m with Dyckerson. I thin we’d all better go to the DQ if we want a blizzard. But I would not be disappointed with 18 inches.

    On the bright side, I finally got my wish and my yard froze!

  28. WeatherNut says:

    Now appears it could be another major snow event. I better get with my sources to discuss.

  29. Shawn says:

    It started out as a possible clipper, but now places are saying we’re getting a nor’easter!

  30. joe says:

    It looks like most of the models are now picking up on a thursday night/friday snow event for our area!

  31. Shawn says:

    I found two places giving accumulations: 2.7 in and 4 in.

    • J says:

      It is impossible to predict accumulations this far out so there really isn’t any point to bother until its MUCH closer. It could just be cloudy and cold

  32. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    My sources tell me the only blizzard you’re going to find around here next weekend is at Dairy Queen.

  33. Chris says:

    i already got my snow fix for the year would love to see more but the timing needs to be better so i am not stuck driving home in it.

  34. KMD says:

    The setup for snow chances on the end of the week are looking healthy. That’s not to say it’s a sure bet, but the models are hinting at snow and, as we can tell by walking outside, the cold air is in place.

  35. matt says:

    I’ve heard this clipper has a chance of digging in and a coastal low forming. Some articles I’ve read say that the current setup is close to when we had the Blizzard of 96. What does anyone think of that or know about that?

  36. Shawn says:

    I think it will be very cold (around 30) with a few flurries, but I don’t think there will be any accumulations. If you look at the past clippers they usually don’t materialize. It’s usually the nor’easters that bring the heavy snow.

  37. JPal says:

    Some clouds and wind at best… I HATE it when it gets this cold and windy.

  38. WeatherNut says:

    3-4″ from this one.

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