January thaw this week

Temperatures will be staging a dramatic turnaround from the middle to the end of the upcoming week, a thaw from the recent lengthy cold snap.

The frequent plunges of arctic air will be taking a break,  but interest will shift to what happens next weekend.  Signs of a strong Gulf storm brewing around that time period are showing up on most of the computer models, but the trends seem to be keeping the milder air in place too.

There are conflicting signals on this, as well as the eventual track and development of the storm, so will be interesting to follow the guidance on this system as the next few days unfold.

* Jim Duncan


24 Responses to January thaw this week

  1. Snowman says:

    But Joe bastard at accuweather is so entertaining!

  2. Nonsense says:

    You guys need to stop using accuweather for forecasts, especially long term, they always tend to side on the extremes and are as reliable as a 1973 Ford Pinto. Anything out past 3-4 days should be taken with a grain of salt in winter.

  3. Michelle says:

    Jim D. What can YOU tell us about this storm everyone is talking about at this time? Anything?!

    • nbc12weather says:

      First, tonight’s clipper is nothing imo.
      The weekend storm is still a tough call, but leaning towards rain. Problem is, we are about to undergo a major pattern change into next week (week of 18th-) that will be much more typical El Nino, i.e. much warmer, and often these type of pattern shifts are heralded by a big storm as Nature “rebalances”. Will post a blog on this next day or 2.
      Jim D.

  4. Snowman says:

    Joe bastardi is all excited again about a major nor’easter next weekend. Richmond will be on the “line” again.

  5. J says:

    around the 26th of this month is going to be the big one of the year!!!

  6. Shawn says:

    The rain/snow line is supposed to be right down the I-95 corridor. Which means ice, snow, and rain for central VA.

    • kristinrosemoon says:

      Shawn where did you see the rain/snow line down I-95? Every where I’ve seen shows the rain/snow line to be way North of Richmond area, usually around Fredericksburg/Louisa and North.

    • Emily says:

      Considering accurate weather predictions cannot be made more than 1-3 days in advance, I’d take very little of long-range forecasts to heart. Didn’t this same individual predict last week’s clipper to turn into a real snow event? Let’s be realistic about our prediction expectations.

  7. Stephanie says:

    I don’t want ice. I’d like to keep the electricity on.

  8. Shawn says:

    The average high for this time of year is around 45! That seems extremely warm compared to the freezing temperatures last week. Accuweather is thinking about a possible ice storm next weekend for us and snowstorm for the northeast.

  9. scs says:

    Near 50 degrees!! Holy smokes, I need to dig my shorts and T shirts back out! It’s gonna seem like Summer! To heck with it being as cold as it’s been. Yes, it’s winter and it’s supposed to be cold, but…

  10. Shawn says:

    Sleet will probably trigger a two hour delay. We just have to wait and see. Some places are forecasting temps. in the 50’s.

  11. Sean says:

    If it’s gonna rain next weekend (and from the looks of things right now it will) this is going to suck. We’ve had so much damn rain it’s ridiculous. Right now the “best” case scenario for wintry precipitation is sleet and freezing rain so it might as well rain.

  12. Sirius...The Star Dog says:

    If that’s the case…then why did Tom Patton say there wasn’t any sign of a January thaw when the forecast models at the time showed the cold-snap would break during the upcoming week?

  13. Mighty Dyckerson says:

    I guess this means teachers won’t get any time off this week…

  14. kristinrosemoon says:

    Yup typical Richmond. It will warm up just in time for the good moisture to show up….Translation, just another big rainstorm. *sigh*

  15. Snowman says:

    Snow! did somebody say snow!

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