Snowstorm Update

Quick updated post here, as it’s been 24 hours since my last, and time for a bit of fine-tuning.

Details are still up for major grabs, as we’re two days out yet, but I would put preliminary forecast totals of  around 6″ metro Richmond, with heavier totals across portions of  far southern Virginia into northern North Carolina.

Keeping our metro forecast open-ended for now, and will tweek the numbers as we get a little closer timewise, keeping in mind that the limiting factor, as discussed before, will be a more southern storm track.  It’s still far too soon to nail this one down because of this.

Looking good, though, for the snow-fans among us. 

*Jim Duncan

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61 Responses to Snowstorm Update

  1. amy says:

    Yeah, my son gets a snowy 14th birthday

  2. zipperip58 says:

    Hope it’s a good one.. just got a power snow blower!

  3. Bharat says:

    Alright folks, Time to hit one of the grocery stores and start loading Bread, Milk etc..

  4. Matt says:

    Yea 6z GFS looking much better for us.

  5. Sean says:

    6z GFS and NAM (GFS is better) trending north.

  6. snowman says:

    The storm is starting to pick up some good strength as it heads this way. Hopefully it will keep tapping into that gulf moisture as it travels east.

  7. Dudley says:

    I want to be a NBC12 weather man. I would get my fellow weather people from the station over to my house on a saturday night, buy some beer and read these comments. It would be a blast!

  8. Mike says:

    Lol, some of the reactions to one model run make me laugh. Yeah, the NAM was horrible but even that showed some moisture over us. THe GFS the Canadian and just recently the European were pretty positive for Central Va. The Euro had DC with .10 liquid, and Rich with .65 liquid. Yeah, the heaviest was southern Va and North Carolina with over inch liquid precip. Could the storm miss us? Of course, but 3 models (actually 4 if you include the Japanese model) have good precip in our area, while only the NAM tends to be the one hurting Central Va. At this far out you rarely have computer models all in agreement anyway. This scenario is better than the infamous rain/snow line that usually falls just west of Richmond.

  9. mystic09 says:

    To clarify. Yes I do see supression for many areas to the North of NVA/DC, But I feel atleast central Va to SE VA shoild do well as well as many NC locations.

    • Charley says:

      Mystic09,

      You have great analysis, but you need to expand a few acronyms, it’s very hard to read even for people who know what you’re talking about. Also, every few sentences, stop and proof read what you’ve written. You have many mistaken word choices, duplicates, and confusing spelling errors. Otherwise we all appreciate your contributions and hope for more.

  10. conway says:

    By tomorrow night. Models should have a grip on this storm. We all got spoiled from the DEC 19th storm. Models didnt fluctuate too much. Made it easy on us and stress free. Dont give up. Look at how the models have been fluctuating. GFS trends south, NAM trends North. NAM trends south, GFS trends North. Too much model inconsistancy at the moment.

  11. Maryann says:

    NWS Discussion as of 9:44:

    THINK HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS (AMTS) WILL
    OCCUR GENERALLY S OF A FVX TO RIC TO MFV LINE DWN INTO INLAND
    NCNTRL AND NE NC AWAY FM THE WATER. LOCATIONS IN EXTRM SE VA (VA
    BCH) INTO CSTL NE NC MAY GET LESSER AMTS OF SNOW DUE TO MIXING OF
    SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

  12. mystic09 says:

    Hi. I am new here, but am no stranger to weather. I have been following models, etc. for several years. Just thought I would give my initial opinion on the upcoming s/w, but by no means a final analysis. I will not even touch that till tomorrows 12 suit.
    ATM there are 2 jets streams trying to merge aloft b/w a PV over central Canada. The southern jet has an ULL over somewhere near Baha CA./Mex. There is a strong artic “H” building from Canada This will head SE (northern jet) and move thru the GL to the MD causing a phasing of the 2 jets. Almost like a CF but merging with the transfer L occurring off the SE coast. Similar to a Miller B set up but further south. Reason why not a Miller A, it goes across the Rio Grande States/ Gulf States. Not a true A to originate in the Gulf. Fri. night this L should do a transfer to the SE coast, thinking neat GA/SC boarder maybe a little northward, riding the coast somewhat till exiting the northern Carolina Coast.

    Far as snow accumulations, will depend on the tract. Tining of the phasing of the N & S Jet of the s/w energy and how if it does negative tilt will be a determining factor on how much.

    My personal opinion, supressed, no negative tilt. A good storm storm for C & SC VA. No worries here on the latest NAM. Not seeing suppression all that much

    Need alot of dry, frigid air in place, I am in SCE VA not seeing it fo any long period. Current readings, 31, H=84%, DP=26. Not so bad. Will keep an eye on it. I have a Davis Pro 2

    • Sean says:

      Those are reassuring words. Have you ever seen any storm of that size, that suppressed? I can’t find anything online for an analog.

  13. Josh says:

    It is actually looking better now..from the latest GFS

    • Sean says:

      Yeah, I gave a sigh of relief after that run. How can this be that suppressed? BTW, the model I was talking about was the NAM.

  14. taylor says:

    can anyone give me a prediction for the raliegh durham area? I’m planning on driving to nc fri morning to move stuff n need to be back by sunday late night is that looking possible?

  15. conway says:

    00z GFS looks better then 00z NAM We are still on the north side of storm. The slightest trend north will bring us more snow. Its too early to tell. Were still close to 48 hours from the storm. Im thinking 6 inches with latest GFS run.

  16. steve says:

    just think positive

  17. snowman says:

    And this is a classic reason you don’t want too much cold air in place when a storm heads our way. That big old High pressure systems pushes the low further south!

  18. Snowman says:

    My latest models show 0.5-1″ Richmond and surrounding locals.. Mainly on grassy areas.
    Boohooooo…

  19. Phil Riggan says:

    So far, I’m not on the schedule to present NBC12 viewers’ Send it to 12 photos on air again. That is the best indication I have that the snow totals will be low….

  20. Taylor says:

    where are u getting these models (mat sean n kristin)?

  21. kristinrosemoon says:

    1 bad model and you’re done??

  22. Matt says:

    B.t.w. everyone sorry for the extremely negative reaction but you can keep on believing this thing will turn around and maybe your hope and prayers will make it turn out alright. However, I’m done.

  23. Matt says:

    Sean, this thing has tanked. God has to love and hate the weather.

  24. Sean says:

    Last run was a doomsday ray for VA. Everyone got screwed ~100 miles S.

    • Matt says:

      Soooooo bad. I’m writing this one off right now. Maybe later in February we will get one. It sucks really because it was looking so good earlier in the week and we get shafted like this? Big dissapointment. NBC12 team, it looks like you don’t have to worry about calling this one— oh wait, you can call it off!!!!!

  25. Matt says:

    Absolutely horrible run for us. Snow total forecasts dwindling. I’m thinking 3-5 metro. 5-7 southern va. And 2 -4 western henrico.

  26. David H. says:

    I’m in Lynchburg, but love this blog. Bring on the snow!

  27. Michael says:

    Is there going to be winds with this storm? I wuold like to know if there is going to be a huge wind chill on sat. to see if I need too cover my face when I go out sledding to pretect from Frostbite. XD

  28. Shawn says:

    Yeah, please don’t jinx us! Please!! I can’t wait to see the 00z runs. They will tell us much more about the storm.

  29. Michelle says:

    I will enjoy building me a snow man and sleigh riding! 🙂 Don’t bash snow… we hardly ever get it!

  30. John says:

    Keep that snow out of here!!!!!!!! its nothing but a hassel!!!!

  31. Shawn says:

    I usually just access models using the following websites: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_l.shtml and http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm. I just started using these very recently, so I do not know if they have a history of being right or wrong. We will just have to wait and see!

  32. Michael says:

    Touchdown! I cant believe its going to be only a HIGH of 24 sat.

  33. Matt says:

    I have a few points to consider for this weekend’s snowstorm. Anyone feel free to respond to or answer these questions please (NBC12 Storm Team included of course since you guys have all the knowledge).
    – Initial surface temperatures at onset of precipitation (Will ground temperatures be too warm due to the fact we have had a pretty warm week and the ground won’t have much time to cool before the snow arrives? How long will it take once the precipitation starts for the snow to stick, esp. to the roads which take longer to cool down?)
    – Track of the storm (Will the storm suddenly jolt northward (very unlikely), Will the heaviest snowfall forecasts continue to be to our south (most likely), or will the storm make a very slight turn northward (very possible) as it comes closer to approaching us? (This would give us the heaviest snow!)
    – Snow ratios (What will our snow ratios be? (i.e. ratio of snow to liquid equivalent) (Will they be low and we get wetter, denser snow – 5:1 – 10:1 or will they be high and we get lighter, fluffier snow – 11:1 – 25:1?) By the way, it looks like we will get lighter, fluffier snow (which accumulates to a higher depth because it is less dense and contains less liquid) since the temperatures throughout the levels of the atmosphere and on the surface will be bitterly cold due to a very strong high pressure system diving down from the north.

    *** The 1st and 3rd issues aren’t too important but could have a slight affect on overall snow totals by the end of storm***
    Looks like a good one though!

  34. steve says:

    i hope it stays on the track that they are predicting i’m below petersburg and we got robbed last time it snowed.

  35. Shawn says:

    Don’t worry, it will be cold enough for all snow. We will have to wait until the 00z run to see how much snow we will get. We will definitely know much more Thursday afternoon/night.

    • Matt says:

      Shawn, just curious, where do you normally go to access the models? I usually just go to weather.gov but I’m looking for a better site with the euro model. Thanks, Matt.

      • Sean says:

        That’s where everyone gets the standard ones like air pressure and precipitation. You have to pay for snow totals, precip. type, etc.

  36. Matt says:

    NBC12 Storm Team, Is there a chance the storm will track just a bit more north once we see it develop tomorrow over the Southern Plains or will the cold, dry air mass force the precip to stay more to our south?

  37. Lou says:

    Don’t change the forecast to alot of ice at the last minute!!!

  38. Chris says:

    i just watched the broadcast and am wondering how much to expect in new kent area? i guess all questions will be answered soon.

  39. Snowman says:

    We want a more northern track to this storm please.

  40. Tristan says:

    Oh nice 6 inches, seems nice,

  41. Shawn says:

    It is looking good indeed. I would guess about 6-8 inches for Richmond and Henrico. I think Danville is going to get pounded. I will be happy with the 6+ inches Jim Duncan mentioned. Keep in mind, we still got almost two months of winter left. Also, February is supposed to be very stormy and cold.

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