New England Winter Day

Update to below post, Thurs night:  Forecast still looks on track after a quick look at late-evening guidance.

We all know that a snowstorm is coming, and that significant accumulations are expected.  What could be a bit shocking for some folks Saturday will be the  very cold air accompanying the storm, with highs only in the lower 20s!

They’re even expecting heavy snow as far south as Raleigh and as far east as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, with highs in the 20s there as well.  This is New England-ish style weather, for sure.

The storm will be easing away Saturday night, but it certainly looks like a memorable one for many of us.

More fine-tuning of accumulations will be posted on our main weather discussion page.

* Jim Duncan

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82 Responses to New England Winter Day

  1. Mee says:

    Anyone know where sleds/snow fun stuff mighyt be. Checked Dick’s and Gander Mountain. No luck!

  2. snowman says:

    Still looks like it’s keeping the southern track. Still good totals Richmond area but we won’t be bullseye by looks of things. I’ll take 8 inches anytime though! (that’s what she says) 🙂

  3. Lou says:

    What is a 00z NAM 00Z this 00Z that? lol

  4. jesse says:

    Check out the US radar, northern precip shield is broken up. Heard talk of a new low forming around Arkansas.

  5. Mike J says:

    whoops. Both Nam and GFS, not noth. 🙂

  6. Mike J says:

    yeah Ray, but good news is noth Nam and GFs are practically the same. Not that that matters much since computer models aren’t exactly the most reliable. They look much better though than last night at OZ especially the Nam. I still think the precip will be a tad less than model projections though. 3 to 6 sounds good to me, with 5-10 at NC Border. Oh well, its fun though looking at models and trying to guess what will happen no matter what happens

  7. Ray says:

    00Z NAM looked a bit off….may have initiated a little weird. Hopefully the GFS will pick up the slack (QPF) for us here in Short Pump.

  8. Conway says:

    00z looks good. I think were looking at 8-12 inches here. 12+ south.

  9. wxdavid says:

    MONSTER HIT FOR RIC ON GFS

  10. Conway says:

    00z GFS comming out now

  11. Tristan says:

    Oh nice

  12. Snowman says:

    NWS saying 12 for Richmond and surrounding area.

  13. Morgan says:

    Where would I find the 00z gfs model to look at?

  14. Chris says:

    its a nice area, always seems to be a dividing line of a larger amounts of snow in these storms. Been here all of my 26 years so far.

  15. Jess says:

    Chris…I have been down here all my life!! I hope we do get a lot this weekend, just hoping it will be powdery like they say so we don’t loose power…you know how that can be around here..it could be weeks before we get it back…lol!!

  16. Jess says:

    Chris…been in New Kent for 28 years!! I love it down here, just hoping the snow is powdery like they say and we don’t loose power..you know how that can go down here for us…it could be weeks..lol!!

  17. Conway says:

    00z NAM trended a slight bit south but nothing to get worried about. 00z gfs will be the one to watch.

  18. wxdavid says:

    *** FORECAST MODELS GRAPHICS **
    copy and paste the links into your browser

    this is from the NAM .. it shwos a band of 16-20 inches south of the city and 10-12 over RIC itself
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ

    this is the GFS — better model– shwo slarge areas of 14-16″ JUST south of RIC
    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=AKQ

  19. Chris says:

    your in new kent too? should be good amounts around these parts.

  20. Dave says:

    So, I’m heading to Greensboro Tuesday evening to pick up a car I just bought. Anyone think things will be passable in that area by then. Just traveling 95 to 85 to get there from Richmond. Typically the highways are the first to be cleared well.

    I’m excited about this storm though. I’ll be happy with any amount of snow we get here in Richmond!

  21. Jess says:

    Hi Everyone…just wanted to say thank you to all of you guys that post constantly….I get on this site what seems to be like every hour to stay updated and I normally don’t post anything….but I just wanted to say thanks, you guys sure are weather fans, and its great reading everyones input…keep it up. Hoping for lots of snow down here in New Kent. Thanks again, keep warm this weekend and be safe!!

  22. Conway says:

    Radar already looking impressive down south. Im wondering if totals will be higher then anticipated. Golds gym (Willow Lawn), there are still 5 foot snow mounds. I am sure the plows will be adding to that Saturday

  23. Shawn says:

    That map that I posted earlier was posted at three pm on January 27. Sorry, I didn’t realize it was that old. It is still something to look at though. The 00z run will be very interesting tonight. If you look at wxcaster.com (that was updated recently) you can see that the NAM shows us in the 10-12 range, with 18-20 inches in Danville and Emporia. The GFS shows us in the 12-14 range with us being in the bulls eye. I expect this to be a little lower, because it will take a while before the snow actually starts to stick. (by the way when I say us, I mean Richmond and Henrico.)

    • Matt says:

      I don’t think it will take too long to stick. Maybe 30 minutes at the most for the roads. The temps tonight will dip well below freezing and temps tomorrow won’t get that far above freezing. Plus there will be temps below freezing fora good 5-6 hours before thesnow arrives Friday overnight

  24. Ed says:

    Waiting on the cold, dry Arctic air to arrive. I hope that the dry air doesnt limit the onset of precipitation too much. Praying for early saturation and a slight jump to the North.

    Ahhh, snow is the best! It turns me into a little kid. The anticipation is perhaps one of the best parts!

    I want to thank Jim and the NBC12 weather team. I have been watching them for 33 years and having this blog has opened up a whole new way to interact.

    LET IT SNOW!

  25. Conway says:

    National Radar looks pretty impressive tonight as the storm begins to take shape down south. I am wondering if the totals may be higher then currently predicted.

    Here at Willow Lawn. There are still 5 foot snow mounds from DEC 19th storm. I am sure plows will be adding to that very soon.

  26. Lou says:

    So if “the blizzard of 1996” was the last time it snowed and stayed that cold (low 20’s) for a high temperature – then that will be a little more than 14 YEARS AGO. Just goes to show you it can snow and get very could in Old Virginia but its fairly rare. But its better than Florida i suppose!

  27. Rashad says:

    Racism. Racism.
    African-American people do not like snow, and this is being forced upon the black community. Racism. Racism.

  28. Chris says:

    interesting. i am scheduled to work at 1:30 saturday. i might not make it.. glad i still have personal time off to use.

  29. Matt says:

    At 9:45, the new 00 NAM model comes out. The same one that made me so dissapointed last night because it took the storm 100 miles south. Let’s hope it doesn’t do that tonight.

  30. Chris says:

    looking forward to this storm. its nice to see that at least some of the tv weathermen actually like snow. At what point saturday should we expect the heaviest snow around here?

  31. Paul says:

    Shawn, where is the link you posted coming from? Pretty interesting. Is it a NWS created link?

  32. Jeff J says:

    The March 1 1980 storm had temps below 20 and that was a moster year for snow in the eastern part of the state.

    http://www.vaemergency.com/newsroom/history/winter.cfm

  33. Shawn says:

    Here is a link showing a snowfall forecast: http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/xxclients/3RDwrva.jpg. Along with this image, they say, “The Heaviest snowfall will be from a line … Roanoke to Richmond to Williamsburg… and southside to the NC border.” Looking great!!

    • Conway says:

      Good Lord! Where did that snowmap come from. Those figures are really high. Is this an updated accumulation map?

      • wxdavid says:

        I thought so tooo BUT… evryone over ther past 24 hours has dramatically INCREASED their snow numbers …

    • Matt says:

      Based on this map, metro Richmond gets a foot. I’m all for it but do you think this may be pushing it?

      • wxdavid says:

        This Guy was perfect on the dec 18-19 snow… he went 10-20″ for the area 3 days before the storm on WRVA and that was 100% correct

        3 days out all the TV people were saying snow showers …

  34. owen says:

    im not the same owen on the contact the nbc 12 weather team blog.

  35. owen says:

    im not the other owen you see on contact the first warning weather team.

  36. owen says:

    I think its going to snow a lot. It still looks like it might go north!

    • Matt says:

      YeppOwen is right. Everyone, in order to access the models, go to weather.gov and on the left hand side their is a very long list of links. Click the one called numerical models. Then click “fine” for one of the GFS or NAM models for either 00, 06, 12, or 18. Play around with all the storm tracks until you become familiar with them. Hope this helps!

      • Charley says:

        And just a pointer, the numbers (00, 06, 12, 18) refer to the time the models are generated (GMT), so 06 is midnight EST. It also takes an hour or so typically for them to actually be posted.

  37. owen says:

    I hope it snows a lot. I think its going slightly north at this time

  38. luke says:

    How models looking now? Still going north?

  39. Mike says:

    Can’t remember the last time we had snow with that cold temperatures. Anyone know the answer?

  40. Shawn says:

    Temps are only supposed to get into the low to mid 20’s on Saturday as a high. This will boost ratios. I don’t know about 20:1, but 15:1 is very likely. I am saying about 8 inches in western Henrico.

  41. Corrie says:

    So what you’re saying Jim is that the ratio will be higher maybe 20:1 ?

  42. Corrie says:

    First!

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