Yes, it’s going to snow

Update to below:  Totals could be impressive, approaching 6-10″ metro Richmond area, more just to the south with a foot posssible.  Much less to the north and west of Richmond.

Thursday morning as I write this, and pieces still falling into place for snow Friday night and Saturday. 

A decidedly wintry day Saturday, too, with Maine-like temperatures in the lower 20s as the snow is flying.  High snow/liquid equivalents because of the cold air will help beef up accumulations some.

In terms of amounts, the southern track still throwing a bit of caution out there, but feeling confident that a good dump of snow will cover most of the area.  I will post an update on this blog later today after perusing newer guidance.

*Jim Duncan

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66 Responses to Yes, it’s going to snow

  1. Michael says:

    Gov. Just issued state of emergency ahead of the storm, weather channel is talking about Richmond getting near a foot. They have actually been talking about us! They never talk about va. Lok

  2. Michael says:

    You guys put way to much trust int he models…XD

  3. Dave says:

    I’d love to get some photos and send them to 12 (as I’m a photographer), but for some reason they never put any of mine up 😦 Not that they’re bad, and they’re mine, not someone else’s copyright images. I contacted NBC four times now about why my photos never show up; and no answer. So, NBC 12 can do without my photos I suppose. I was able to upload one about 4 months ago, and got some great feedback on it…but nothing since then has been able to upload.

    Thanks NBC12….now back to the snow forecast! We’re going to get hammered in RIC. 🙂

    • Phil Riggan says:

      Dave, I’ve seen an email from you and I can’t recall if I replied (if not, sorry). We apologize for the trouble. There is a company that hosts the Send it to 12 service, with humans reviewing all material. There should be no reason you’ve had a photo blocked, unless it was copyrighted or offensive. I haven’t heard from but a handful of viewers that they’ve had trouble submitting photos or been rejected.

      Please try again sometime and email me if you have trouble: webmaster@nbc12.com

  4. Matthew says:

    well i guess i was right the whole time!!!!!!!!!

  5. Phil Riggan says:

    Now that we are expecting that “totals could be impressive, approaching 6-10″ metro Richmond area,” looks like I’m going to have to work. I hope to get plenty of Send it to 12 photos, and if it’s not too bad, I will try to get some great shots of wintery Richmond scenery myself. Any requests?

    • afreiden says:

      Phil:
      That’s: “I get the privilege of working Saturday, and I we get good pictures, you’ll see me presenting them on NBC12 TV.” Look forward to working with you Saturday AM!
      -Andrew

      • Phil Riggan says:

        You are wise in your ways of the force Darth Freiden.

        I will enjoy the privilege of working with you Saturday, although I must await instructions from Lord Jones before presenting photos on NBC12 Television.

        Owned – you are correct sir.

    • Corrie says:

      Owned!

  6. Lou says:

    Could i feature a portion of this weather blog/forecast on my youtube web page? or would that be a no no?

  7. snowman says:

    The latest y25 is looking good for us now. Also the asian yam shows in our favor.

  8. Chris says:

    looks like i wont be working saturday night.

  9. Betty says:

    I hope it snows it’s butt off so I can have fun with the 4 wheel drive

  10. Hmmm says:

    18z NAM out and corr. discussion is showing slightly more northern track and with more moisture which show up on the new run. Perhaps a little stronger than earlier thought? Also, NWS has WStorm watches out now for C’Ville and points north of Richmond which may validate the northern shift.

  11. Matthew says:

    water precip has gone up to 1 in. now

    • Tom says:

      Is that on your model Matthew ? And by the way, do you think this thing could tilt like 15 degrees northward so that we get the highest totals?

  12. Superbad says:

    Sweet I have some new board games to play this weekend and this will be the perfect setting! Dominion and Ticket to Ride Nordic Countries here I come!

  13. Chunk says:

    I hope it snows 12″, lasts thru most of next week, and kills all the flu germs!!! A classic captive mini-vacation!

  14. Weatherladyinpowhatan says:

    Guess what folks. It gonna snow. Does it really matter how much as long as it snows? Go to the grocery store. Walmart was stocking the shelves this morning getting ready for the rush….
    I LOVE SNOW!!!!!! Keep up the great work 12…

  15. Snowbaby says:

    Henrico schools are off Monday for parent/teacher meetings but hopefully no school on Tuesday !! Come on SNOW !!!!!!!

  16. Jeff says:

    You can be sure that ALL teachers in the greater Richmond area are hoping for enough to miss Monday and Tuesday – the last one in Dec. came at the start of Christmas break!

  17. Liz says:

    Ha ha ha, people west and north! Finally, the city of Richmond gets more snow!!!

  18. Ed says:

    8:00 p.m. approximately

  19. Lauren says:

    Can anyone tell me an approx. time the snow will start Friday evening??

  20. Dave says:

    I knew I was forgetting something! I wonder if there’s any milk, bread, or bum wipe left 😉

  21. Kathy says:

    One last Hooray for Ukrops…Nothing brings in the customers like snow…

  22. Brian P says:

    Question for Jim. A group of us are having a freindly wager about the amount of snow that will accumulate. We need an official benchmark for measuring as in the time of day to measure(most likely Saturday) and an official measurement site (we are in the Shortpump area). Any suggestions? What does NBC 12 use? Thanks

  23. Todd says:

    You all in RIC and points south are lucky. I’m a tad north of Fredericksburg and forecast here is just for snow shower(s) Sat morning – 60%. Not sure how much snow comes from a snow shower, but probably not more than a couple of inches. Anyway, hope you guys enjoy the white stuff and get lots of it….

  24. nbc12weather says:

    Too much hand-wringing over small details. It’s going to snow, probably more than some folks would like, and not enough for others. Just my philosophical spin on things.
    Jim D.

    • Dana says:

      We have both viewpoints represented in our household. Can’t wait to see how it pans out.

    • ENOUGH, it's going to snow!!! says:

      Thank you Jim. I don’t know how you guys can stand the insanity in here. I have been reading these comments and bottom line is: What does it matter weather it’s 5″, 10″, 12″ or more? Either way its a lot of freaking snow and pretty much everything in the area will be cancelled for the weekend. Stay home and sip hot cocoa and watch movies or get your 4 wheelers out. What more is there to say?!?!

  25. Conway says:

    Here comes the 12z GFS. The anticipation is exciting.

    • Maryann says:

      Keeping fingers crossed that Sussex stays in the heavy band of snow! It’s been over 5 years since we’ve seen more than an inch!

  26. Dave says:

    Oh, Good Lord….please don’t go off anything that weather.com shows you. I agree; the December storm was pretty much spot on, and worst case it was a little under forecast as some places around Richmond metro got much more than was forecast. I think Jim D and the NBC12 team are playing this right. Not hyping it to be huge, but staying conservative saying we will get snow regardless….and it makes sense to keep reiterating that waiting overnight tonight for the latest models, getting a 72 hour outlook, etc…is going to give them some legs to stand on when trying to more accurately call for a total amount of snow.

    Either way, snow is good…whether it’s a dusting or a foot. This is the way winter should be! This has been one of the better Richmond winters in 10+ years so far…and we still have February to look forward to. Remember, March of 2009 gave Richmond some good totals too as far as snow!

  27. snowman says:

    Even JD is saying this now:
    “Stay tuned, we still have a couple days to go and don’t be surprised to see the snow forecast go up this afternoon based on the latest guidance!”

  28. dave in cumberland says:

    nam shot way north. starting to look good

    • Annie says:

      The northward trend is nice for us in RIC but I hope Tidewater doesn’t get screwed. My friends down there are so excited because they’ve had their snow hopes dashed for several years in a row now. This system needs to share the wealth.

  29. Lou says:

    “Maine-like temperatures” cool –

  30. Johnny says:

    I am ready for 75 and pollen

  31. JPal says:

    All this speculation has my mind spinning! will it? or will it not? 2″ or 12″. My prediction is let’s all measure Saturday evening when it is all said and done….that should be pretty darn accurate!

  32. Russ H. says:

    Yes, the NAM is starting to show a bit of a northward trend as predicted. That is good for snow lovers here!

    No matter what, I think we get 4″ in metro RIC, a continued northward trend (dependent on the strength of the polar air charging south) could mean twice that!! 🙂

    NBC12 – keep up the good work, you have played this one perfectly so far.

  33. Michelle says:

    Jim and Mike are disappointing me. Jim D. is very conservative when it comes to snow. I believe him this time.

  34. Conway says:

    12z so far is Best NAM yet! Its gonna snow!!

  35. Jim says:

    I am predicting this from looking at the weather map on weather.com. You can’t forcast weather from a computer module. The December storm was predicted wrong from the start. Weather can not predicted it has been this way for years. LOL

    • snowman says:

      But that weather map is based on the next 48 hours.You need to see the one that’s based on 72 hours.(when the storm has come through this area)

    • Annie says:

      Actually, aside from a couple of lowballs on the accumulation predictions, the forecasting for the December storm was pretty accurate. That’s largely because the models were remarkably consistent for several days leading up to the event. We knew days out that RIC would get a significant snow; the only question until it actually started falling was how much and even then most forecasters had us correctly in the 6-10 inches range.

      The problem with this storm is that the models have been shifting all over the place with regards to accumulation. Again, we know RIC is getting snow but because of the frequent shifts we’ve seen accumulation forecasts anywhere from 3 to 16 inches.

      Oh, and avoid the maps on weather.com unless you want to tear your hair out. They’re far from accurate when it comes to predicting precip amounts for a specific area, since they’re meant to show what may happen in a broad region.

      • Emily says:

        Annie, thanks for saying that the December storm was predicted accurately. I’ve had trouble understanding why people thought it was not. In the Midlothian area, our precip totals actually fell right smack in the forecasted range. I know some places were higher than first predicted (i.e. Short Pump area), but most were right on the money. The outliers just support the hypothesis that sometimes weather does what it wants.

      • Emily says:

        Annie, thanks for saying the December storm was forecast correctly. I’ve had trouble understanding why some continue to say it was not. In the Midlothian area our totals were smack dab in the middle of the forecast range so there were no surprises for us. I know some places had more than first predicted (i.e. Short Pump), but that just supports the hypothesis that sometimes weather just does what it wants to.

  36. Mike says:

    actually it wouldn’t take a huge swing south for us to miss it. Models are a bit jumpy. GFS looks good for us, while Nam not so much. Although the Nam has us with some precip though. I can understand his thought Snowman, we have missed out on storms like this. It is still a couple days away. I will say this though, it seems to me the models have been south biased all winter compared to what actually happens. Who knows. My guess is 0 to 12 🙂

  37. Jim says:

    With so much uncertainty of this track I think Richmond will just see flurries to a dusting. It seems this storm is going to be too far south and moving west to each. This means little gulf misture will be pulled in to get more preciptation to the northen edge of this storm. I think if you want to see snow you may want to head to the NC for the weekend. Previous storms on this track have left Richmond hung out to dry.

    • snowman says:

      I agree Jim. I think every metrolig, matrollagis, mettroleg, weatherman is wrong and you are right. All the computer models are way off and you are right. Oh, one question, what do you base your statement on?

  38. snowman says:

    Ooo, ooo, I’m first to leave a comment, hmmm, but what to say?

    OK, Let it snow baby!

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