Major Winter Storm UPDATE

UPDATE posted 1:52pm: All new guidance is in and digested. Think we could hit the high end of our range, i.e. around 10″ metro Ric, heavier south.  Over a foot possible southern areas, between Emporia north to southern Chesterfield.  High temps Sat only around 20ish early then falling during the afternoon…could be in the 16-18 degree range with heavy snow mid-afternoon.  One word…WOW.

Sure looking like a major winter storm still on track for central Virginia and points south, with lesser amounts just to the north.

NBC12 weather team tweaking snow totals as I write this, with finishing touches on the predictions later today.

Still VERY cold Saturday, with heavy snow, certainly a rarity around here during any winter.

Updates later, so stay tuned!

* Jim Duncan


77 Responses to Major Winter Storm UPDATE

  1. Snowman says:

    Probably not. Sleet may eat into their totals.

  2. Lou says:

    Will NC get deeper snow than the VA “bullseye” area?

  3. Snowman says:

    No, still a big hazzard for the roads. In fact it can be worse because it’s so cold and freezes easier on the surface.

  4. Drew says:

    I see that this is predicted to be more of a dry, powdery snow, does this mean that it won’t be hard on the roads, and that driving won’t be that much of a hazard? Particularly on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, where I have to go into the office early.

  5. owen says:

    is tracking north! north!

    • snowman says:

      I don’t see that at this point. Main storm center will stay to the south of virginia. Still good bands of snow will come through our area though.

  6. snowman says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the weather event this weekend will go down on the record books. Not just because of the heavy snow accumilations, but because of the brutal cold temperatures that will accompany the snow. This indeed will be a rare storm for the central VA area and will be talked about for years to come.

  7. J says:

    I’m from Powhatan and go to school in the foothills of SW NC and our snow has started and were going to get more than a foot. I’m sure gonna miss that brutal cold fully Central VA snow tho.. ENJOY cause i know i will!!

  8. ryan says:

    Bring it, 2 storms in one season, lets go!

  9. Liz says:

    This is awesome! Can’t wait! We have four bottles of wine, a case of beer, stuff to make soup, roast and ice cream sundaes, and movies on demand. Bring it!!!

  10. Charley says:

    If the moisture makes it here, I think these predictions are a bit low given the newer temperature forecasts. When you get into the teens, you’re talking over 20:1 ratios for snow, and it seems like while the forecast models have adjusted for the moisture difference, they have yet to truly adjust to the temperature differences. I’m snow biased, yes, but if the moisture hangs according to the models (given colder dryer air doesn’t counter it), these 10-12″ figures should be more like 14-16″ at least.

  11. Matthew says:

    FROM WRIC TV 8 I think snow totals will look like this. 2”-4” in Fredericksburg, 6”-10” in Ashland, 9”-14” in Metro Richmond, and 12”-16” from Petersburg south to Emporia. JB

  12. good luck there in ricmond we live’d their for 12 year’s seen one of them snow storm’s was not a fun time

  13. Lofty Peters says:

    And 8 inches in my pants!

  14. Mike Pender says:

    I picked up my lube this morning and I’ll be stopping at Lowe’s for firewood later. I’m getting a workout watching it snow this weekend, you can count on that!

    I will be providing updates as the weekend goes on from my post in The Fan. Breaking News like no one has ever seen, 24 hours a day.

    My fearless prediction? 14 inches in The Fan and 4 inches in my apartment!

  15. Lee says:

    Wxdavid – that is awesome! Bring it on!

  16. wxdavid says:

    hiuh resolution WRF model has just come out within the past hours

    it has 16″ at ric

    and 18″ over southern chesterfield and PTB

    • Maryann says:

      Yep, that will definitely seal the deal of losing power in Sussex.

      • David G. says:

        Remember, it is anticipated that this particular storm will bring a dry, powdery snow – which is not condusive to power outages. I will keep my finger’s crossed for you.

      • Maryann says:

        True… thanks for the reminder! Usually, we lose power out here if the wind blows the wrong way, though it has gotten better over the past year. Still, got the kerosene stocked, plenty of peanut butter and jelly and dusted off all the board games. 🙂

      • David G. says:

        Good plan! Better to be safe than sorry 🙂

  17. Tom says:

    I’m originally from Emporia where we always feel the snow likes to stay north and west of us. Now that Emporia is in the bulls-eye, I live in Georgia where we’re about to get a TON of…rain. But it is fun to keep up on this blog and live vicariously through your posts 🙂

  18. Conway says:

    I was just on capital weather site and they said the models slightly shifted north on 12z run.

    Here is the GFS snow map they posted. It has Richmond and points west near bullseye. Check it out.

  19. Ryan says:

    Will the extremely dry air ‘rob’ some snow on the ground for us?? DP are around 10 F…

    • Russ H. says:

      The NBC12 team were discussing this on their behind the scenes video this afternoon. There will be virga over us from 10 pm on with flakes reaching the ground in the Metro in the 3 – 7 AM range. Since the bulk of the precip is forecast to pass through later morning/early afternoon I don’t think that it will affect snow totals too much since the air will be saturated enough before the heaviest gets here.

      They were right to point out that south of town (Emporia) the air will be saturated much sooner.

  20. Jeff in Matoaca says:

    Sorry if this is a double post, but I posted awhile ago and still haven’t seen my message.

    Anyway, I’m just outside of Matoaca (7 miles or so west of P’burg) and just put up a webcam on Ustream which I plan to keep live for the duration. If anyone wants to check it out, here’s the link:

  21. From Away says:

    I am from Maine originally (from away as they say up there) and this is starting to finally feel like a real winter down here!

    NBC12 has been on top of things as usual. I love the ‘behind the scenes’ videos they are doing. Check out this post from Jeremy Wheeler at WAVY 10 in VA Beach. They are going nuts over there. Their local model has RI in the 12-14″ zone, though he is predicing 8-12″ like about everyone else at this point.

  22. Jimmy Dean says:

    Hope all this hype is not fizzled out by a dusting to 1 inch of snow

  23. Snowlover says:

    I hope we get a foot! Today I’m like a kid on Christmas Eve. I am sorry that we won’t get any earlier though. Have anyone heard anything about next Wednesday? The Farmers Almanac says to expect a snowy February! Looking forward to it!

  24. Lynne Edwards says:

    This came to me in an email and I thought I’d pass it on: According to the Richmond Times-Dispatch and every meteorologist in town, Richmond is going to get a nice snowfall this weekend … up to a foot, some people say. The snow is supposed to start as early as Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday.

    In case you’re new to Richmond, let me tell you how we do it here.

    Someone somewhere says snow is coming to Central Virginia.
    We Richmonders start paying attention.
    Someone says it’s coming to Richmond.
    We Richmonders really start paying attention.
    Someone brandishes the word “accumulation.”
    Done. Finished. Over. We who call Richmond home all-out lose our minds. In the case of this snow, it happens like this:

    Tuesday morning: The word “accumulation” is used.

    Tuesday afternoon: Accumulation confirmed. All weekend plans put on stand-by or out-right canceled.

    Tuesday evening: First trip to supermarket for bread, milk, wine, beer and cookie dough.

    Wednesday morning / afternoon: Calls around town for sleds begin (for the record, is one step ahead. No one has them; Pleasant’s is expecting a shipment on Friday).

    Wednesday evening: Local news does a story about the run on supermarkets for bread and milk. Second trip to supermarket for extra bread and milk, plus frozen pizzas and non-perishables, because you never know.

    Thursday morning / afternoon: Spend workday obsessively checking the forecast. More calls for sleds. Search online for sleds, but decide against them because you can’t believe how much sleds actually cost.

    Thursday evening: Meet friends out for drinks or dinner because you never know when you’ll get out again. Realize you forgot to buy bagels. How could you forget bagels? Third trip to supermarket.

    Friday morning: Alternate staring out window for snow and consulting forecast for exact snow start time. Cancel the rest of weekend plans.

    Friday afternoon: reports that it is snowing in your area. Run to window. Spend at least one hour yelling at because it is clearly not snowing. Ask boss about company inclement weather policy. Complain about said policy. Wait an hour; ask boss if company is closing early.

    Friday evening: Fourth trip to supermarket on the way home for last-minute necessities, like chocolate and fancy hot cocoa. Alternate staring out window and watching local news for exact snow start time. Watch the Closings scroll to see if your work is closed on Monday, because you never know.

    Friday night: Snow finally begins. Call/text all of your friends and family to see if it’s snowing in their area and to make sure they’re OK in the storm. Update Facebook status to reflect snowfall in case you missed anyone. Order pizza so you don’t have to break into rations too soon.

    Saturday morning: Marvel at snowfall. Fling pets / children into the snow so they can marvel and so you have pictures for your Facebook page.

    Saturday afternoon: Drive or trudge to nearest hill and attempt to sled on a cookie sheet/shower curtain/trashcan lid/pool float.

    Saturday evening: Meet friends for out for drinks or dinner to celebrate snow.

    Sunday: Eat leftover pizza and stare out window, watching snow melt. Obsessively watch Closings list. Feel happy when the county you once lived in announces closing and then sad because you never became a teacher and now you have to go out, clean off the car and then go to work tomorrow. Plus you’ve got all that bread and milk to eat.

  25. Lori says:

    Been watching Jim for years and years. Even when he didn’t say what I wanted him to…he has always been pretty much on the money. I trust his judgement over anyone else! nuf said!

  26. Russ H. says:

    I see most models still showing .5 to .75 total qpf over next 48 hours. With cold air that means plenty of snow to go around.

  27. Isobar says:

    This blog is great. Been lurking for a couple of days and felt a need to contribute! Based on model data and projected snow to qpf/liquid ratio of 15:1, I’ll venture a guess of 9″ (at the upper end of the NBC12 range) for the RIC. Of course the risk to snowlovers with this storm is that given the tight gradient in qpf, there is a certain probability that we only get .1″
    or less of liquid precip, which would equate to very low accumulation. This is why we see such a wide range for projected totals. Now it’s time to let mother nature show us how she compares to the computer models.

    • snowman says:

      Look buddy, if ya going contribute, don’t be bringing bad news! You just keep on lurking out there if that’s your case! 😉

  28. Steve says:

    I guess my trip to the Shenandoah Valley tommorrow morning will be cancelled. Oh well, bring on the snow. We might as well get dumped on because getting an inch of snow is like winning 10 cents in the lottery.

  29. snowman says:

    Most models still showing track/heavy precip south of Richmond. 😦

  30. Jimmy Dean says:

    Yeah, hopefully the moisture on the northen edge of this storm doesn’t fizzle out.

  31. J says:

    looks like mother nature is making up for the low snow amounts during the southern part of the state for the december storm. someone is going to end up with well over a foot of snow.

  32. Michelle says:

    I would like to get a good 2 feet of snow. Don’t want to make up that many snow days in June with the kiddos, but it would be fun to play in!

    • Elizabeth says:

      Speaking of playing in the snow…does anyone know where I could get a sled? I checked a few places yesterday and it seems like sleds are no where to be found 😦 I mean I know this is Richmond and we don’t get big snow that often, but I really feel like it wasn’t this hard for my parents to get me a sled when I was younger.

      • snowman says:

        I got some snow discs from pretty cheap. Of course, no good to you this time but a least you’ll have them for next time! (if there’s a next time)

      • JPal says:

        It’s absolutely riciculous. I tried finding mittens for my two little boys yesterday…and all I could find were swimsuits. Hello retail world…It is JANUARY…stores should be stocked with sleds, boots, mittens etc.! Guess I’ll buy them a sled in August.

      • J-Diddy says:

        I don’t know for sure, but when we got the storrm in March, the Bon Air Pharmacy had a pretty fair selection at the last minute. I would suggest giving them a call, you never know.

      • Steve says:

        I have the best place for sleds. The have inexpensive disc and tobaggan sleads at Westbury Pharmacy it is located on Three Chopt Road just off of Parham.

      • Melissa says:

        Pleasants got a shipment in this morning of sleds & shovels, but call first to make sure they’re not sold out. Also, Westbury Pharmacy still has some.

      • Elizabeth says:

        Thanks everyone for the suggestions!!! I called Westbury Pharmacy and they said they had quite a few.

      • mike says:

        check feed and seed stores(Iknow last snow there was a local hardware store in hopewell that had sleds) but with supply and demand they are $$

  33. snowman says:

    Looks like the storm may be trying to re-organize a little. Thunderstorms are being pulled in from the gulf helping to intensify it. It had mellowed somewhat during the night and I was tad afraid it may start to fizzle as it moved east. We need to hope it keeps tapping into the southern gulf moisture as it moves this way. Nothing worse than a storm that runs out of moisture by the time it gets to us! Keep sucking up that energy baby, keep sucking! (that’s what she said)

  34. wyn says:

    I think Mr. J brought back a snow virus from Old Forge. Although I’d enjoy the snow more if we weren’t on call for removing it.

  35. Silver Fox says:

    Long time reader first time poster here. I don’t know what is more interesting, the report that Jim writes, or the comments in the blog itself. Keep on rockin you crazy bloggers….

  36. Conway says:

    12z NAM looks really good!! It looks like the storm has edged north from previous run.

    • snowman says:

      and then the next NAM or GFS comes out and it looks more south again! Probably time to just wait and see! 😉

      • Conway says:

        I know. Im a model junkie. I just enjoy the thrills of anticipation. Sometimes tracking a storm is just as exciting as the storm itself. Everyone seems to come together with their hopes on a good snow.

        I hope they trend north!!

    • snowman says:

      I hear ya! 🙂

      • Ava says:

        I’m with Conway. Here at my house we have learned (the hard way) to celebrate and have fun when Jim forecasts snow – let alone when and if it actually snows. So tonight there will be hot cocoa, popcorn and good movies around our tiny fireplace as we think “Northern track” thoughts. Heaven!

  37. Annie says:

    Jim, might I request a snow party post started around midnight or so? Then people could share snow stories, pics and videos and brag about their inches (that’s what he said).

  38. Mike says:

    with the temp being so cold does that mean this will be large fluffy snow?wondering what conditions make good snowball snow 8^}

    • snowman says:

      No, not good for snowball or snowmen. This will be the light fluffy stuff that we don’t normally get in this area. You can thank the cold temps tomorrow for that. Still, it means higer snow amounts though.

  39. Snow Queen says:

    YEA!!! I love it. Now I have a question….Richmond seemed to go for YEARS without a major snowfall (like those we got when I was a kid). Finally we got that snow last March, one in December, and now one for tomorrow! Has some sort of door opened, or is this just the natural balancing out of weather?

  40. infamous M Elliott says:

    Ehummm.. new blood here.. oh you know me anyway..;p
    You’re in snow hog heaven this winter Mr Jim Duncan arn’t you :).. We are sick of digging out and cold feet,, but theres not much we can do about the weather,, is it ?
    I am still on a weather learning curve..
    Keep up the good work..
    At your service.
    The Big E

  41. Snowman says:

    Ooo, Ooo. First again!

  42. Tristan says:

    I will definitely keep my eye here
    (ALSO 1ST!)

    • Belinda says:

      I would like to know, would it be a good idea to put down extra gravel around my car, to help give it traction? When the snowstorm came in December, my son tried to push my car out, and just for others to know, Don’t push on the windows! It shattered into a zillion pieces..when the windows get so cold, and a glass expert says if you ‘hit it just right’ it will be careful! Thanks for any tips on what to use for traction!

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