Storm of the week

UPDATE Thurs 5:30pm:  Absolute mess of a storm for metro Richmond-south, with progressively higher snow depths north and northwest of  metro. Slushy snow much of Friday changes to sleet and rain-heavy, Friday evening Richmond-south.  Back to snow pre-sunrise Saturday, then a few hours worth could bring a few inches accumulation.  Jim D.

Not a ton more to add to my main weather page discussion on the upcoming storm.  Looking like wintry day Friday, with snow then sleet from morning through mid-afternoon before changeover to more of a mix arrives from the south.  A cold rain from metro Richmond-south Friday night should cap accumulations for winter precip around here, but points north could be different story.

However, National Weather Service  Wakefield prudently noted in their Wednesday afternoon discussion that storms have been tracking a little farther north than model guidance this season, so trends could ultimately point  towards a slightly warmer solution (i.e. rain further north) that could even edge more northward than we suspect.  One model has been clearly showing this trend. 

I’ll post a fresh update tomorrow.

* Jim Duncan


184 Responses to Storm of the week

  1. Jeff says:

    Raining in the east end. So much for Dave’s ‘no rain’ forecast.

    • Dave says:

      I hope you’re not talking about this Dave. I never said anything about ‘no rain’ if you are. Besides…I don’t live in the East End, and we still have sleet here. So, even if you were talking about me, and that’s even if I said ‘no rain’…well, it’s not raining here where I am.

      After all, don’t you know it’s all about ME anyways? There’s no “i” in Team, but there’s an “m” and an “e” and that spells “me”.

  2. Dave says:

    Good amount of snow falling in Henrico (west end). I’m not dissapointed in how things are shaping up. We still have about 30 hours or so to go before things move out completely. Don’t give up yet guys!

  3. Mike - 23112 says:

    Moderate snow in Brandermill.

  4. Mike says:

    For all you Risk lovers, it looks like his latest update has changed to what NBC 12 has been saying all week. Typical that we would miss a 12-20″ storm by 20 miles and a degree or two.

    I guess it is time to fire up the Tuesday hype machine.

    • jeff says:

      I’m with you Mike…it’s 37 degrees right now and going up. No way we get accumulating snow today.

      • bob in chester says:

        JEFF it is ok id you think wxrisk is nt that good. But it is now 32 degres at 1pm snowing like hell here in chester and YOU sire lok like a Moron

      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        Well, at least I’m a moron who can spell.

      • Bob in chester says:

        yeah but you are also dishonest… it is snowing …hard.. and rather than wait to say Midday…you declared his
        forecast a BUST before it began

      • Dave says:

        Guys, it’s just weather. You all have been cooped up too long. Get out there and sled, throw ice balls, shovel and salt. Get that aggression out!

      • Dave says:

        By the way…still snowing pretty darn good here in the west end, so let’s just leave it at that! 😉

    • Emily says:

      I’m glad you said that Mike b/c I thought the same thing when I saw his 0700 update. He’s now saying pretty much what NBC12 guys have said all week. And the NBC12 meteorologists have NOT significantly changed their forecast for our area. From the beginning they have said snow/sleet/rain and today it’s still snow/sleet/rain.

      So, while those of us who are snow lovers wanted wxrisk’s forecast to be the outlier that turned out to be right, we have only ourselves to blame if we’re actually surprised by his forecast today. Jim, Andrew, Tom, and all the meteorologists at WRIC and WTVR have all said pretty much the same thing from the beginning.

    • jeff says:

      I guess this just proves what we have always known….that weather forecasting is a crap-shoot. Sometimes the TV guys guess right, sometimes Wxrisk does.

    • Emily says:

      I’m glad you said that, Mike, b/c his 0700 update mirrors what everyone at NBC12 has said since the beginning of this storm. NBC’s forecast has not changed and has been snow/sleet/rain from the beginning. Time adjustments are not changes in forecasts.

      So, while those of us who are snow lovers may have wished Risk’s forecast was going to be the outlier that turned out to be right, it’s our own fault if we’re surprised by his forecast. Jim, Andrew, Tom, and the meteorologists at WRIC and WTVR have had similar forecasts for this storm all week. And honestly, the only discrepency in forecasts was Risk’s with everyone else’s.

      • vader1013 says:

        I gotta ammend my previous comment too. this weak start and only wet streets after two hours is not a very promising way to start a storm. looks like this one is a bust, and I doubt we’ll see much of anything tomorrow based on RISK. the bright side- no shoveling!!

      • Bob in chester says:

        sorry NBC 12 had ALL rain over RIC tuesday and wednesday

    • bob in chester says:

      come on said hat 4 days ago … come on lets be fair

    • bob in chester says:

      EXACT opposite… wxrisk had 4-8″ since Tuesday

      on Tuesday evnyone else had all rain for Friday

      on wednesday everyone TV and the weather channel had ALL for Friday

      Now channel 12 has 4-8″… and has since last night… and you think wxrisk was wrong?


    • wxrisk says:

      Mikey lets see who is right…

      yes on Monday I said 10-20 possible for central anad western VA

      5 days ago. I was WRONG.
      Barely… 10″ is going to fall only 15-20 miles west of the airport

      since Tuesday I have called for 4-8 today for ric metro. On tuesday everyone called for rain

      NWS in the Times dispatch says ” this will PRIMARILY Rain event…”

      any comment on THAT call Mike?

      all tv stations called friday Mostly rain on wed and Thursday while I still held to my 4 to 8…

      any comment Mike?

      If you are going to Bust me on that 10-20″ cal I made on Monday which WAS a bad call … how is it the all rain calls made Tuesday and wed mornings… dont get a comment?

      • Kaelyn says:

        Risk, I’m sorry to add to this, but let’s be honest. Even yesterday you were calling for quite a bit more snow and the possibility of NO rain in central VA and wondering why the TV mets didn’t see what you saw. And out in Midlo, this HAS been a primarily rain event. Just as all the RIC stations predicted, NBC primarily, it started as snow then mixed with sleet, ultimately turning to rain. In my area of Midlothian, it’s been raining far longer than it snowed.

        Don’t get offended when people say your forecast busted b/c it did. Yours did not change to include rain in the main metro area until last night/this morning. When you call out the TV mets for not seeing what you saw, you open yourself to criticism when what you saw doesn’t pan out and those TV mets you called out didn’t relay it for a reason. Not to mention, you jumping on other posters discredits your professionalism. I’m glad the NBC team hasn’t jumped on everyone who’s criticized their forecasts b/c I can assure you they get it a lot more than you have.

  5. Fred says:

    I’m thinking the Channel 12 forecast is going to look pretty good compared to Wxrisk’s “The world is coming to an end” forecast. This storm looks to be a big fat dud, at least for our area.

    • Flakes-ShortPump says:

      …Channel’s 12 forecast has been everchanging and has developed more and more to support WXRISK’s forecast compared to the mostly rain event that they were calling for.

      It’s not gonna be a “big fat dud”…Short Pump and areas west AS STATED should get around a foot of snow which is definitely NOT a dud. a little better, Fred.

      • Fred says:

        Until it’s on the ground, I’m not believing it. The temp and dew points are too high for snow, and the temp is not supposed to drop today, so what does that tell you?

    • bob in chester says:

      wow Fred you Look STUPID — short Pump at 100PM already had 3″+ on the ground

      great job wxisk and channel 12

      • vader1013 says:

        bob- look man, enough of the name calling and put downs. if you’re only commenting here to put someone down, then your remarks and opinions are best left to yourself. stop calling people idiots and morons- it says more about you than it does about them.

  6. vader1013 says:

    wrong! snow, snow snow- now we know who to listen to!

    • Flakes-ShortPump says:


      I’m waiting for his 6AM update to compare it to everyone else’s!

      • vk says:

        Did he mess up his page? He claims there is an update…but when you click the link…latest one was from last evening.

      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        Yeah…something’s wrong with his page…as you say, it says it has the update from this morning but doesn’t. That said, his forecast is already off since he said it would already be snowing long before now….

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        Jeff…I don’t think you can talk at all. I saw in another post that you said it wouldn’t do anything at all. So either you’re an idiot or you were just kidding…not sure.

        But anyway…WXRISK never claimed to be a website builder but instead a meteorologist (he’s allowed to make mistakes on his webpage).


      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        Not sure what the hell you’re talking about Flake – yes, I said that Wxrisk had been very accurate this season, yes, I said that right now his website doesn’t have the latest forecast, and yes I said I think he’s actually wrong with THIS forecast because we’re not getting serious snow out of this storm. I’ll remind you of this tomorrow….when we have no new snow on the ground.

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        We’re definitely going to have new snow on the ground in Short Pump.

    • Snowbaby in Short Pump says: is the man !!!! So glad my 9 yr old nephew told me about him.

  7. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    I don’t want to be the party pooper here guys and girls. But I don’t think this is going to be that big for richmond area! Too much warm air. Sorry! We will get some accumilation, but not as much as we had hoped. Maybe next one!!

    • Snowman-Shortpump area says:

      Now further north! Bam! Big time snow.
      Here’s hoping for Tuesdays event for us.

    • Acedoc says:

      I think 6 to 12 inches (due to mixing with sleet in the Friday PM) out our way in W. Henrico, is pretty reasonable. But, it wouldn’t take much for one or two big snow bands on Saturday to blast several extra inches on top of the 5 or so inches of slush. 12 to 16 inches in narrowly banded areas would not surprise me.

      I agree, though, if you want to see some amazing totals of snow, go north and/or west. I suspect a couple of feet will be dropping in those areas.
      It looks very similar to January of 1996, perhaps with a bigger storm now.

      I do worry about freezing rain east of here, E. Henrico, and New Kent areas towards West Point denizens can easily recall a few nasty ice storms from the not-too-distant past.

    • eLiTe J says:

      Thats how its looking after the 00z GFS, thats for sure. if we do indeed receive heavy rain tomorrow evening/night then you can be rest assured that it will most likely wash away whatever we accumulate during the day tomorrow. Real bummer for snow lovers. 20-30 miles nw of here will be getting clobbered. We will probably get put under a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a warning. It rarely ever seems to go our way when that dread mix line is near us. But hey, atleast we got over a foot from the last storm. So we can’t say we havent been spoiled!

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        Nope..yall are wrong. 12″ (locally more) in Short Pump. Yall don’t know what you’re talking about. ONE model is running a TAD north.

        NBC12 is doing a good job and so is WXRISK.

      • vader1013 says:

        NBC 12 only changed their forecast this morning to coincide more with what WXRISK has said all week, so I would hardly say NBC12 has done a good job with this.

    • bob in chester says:

      Due are You ever right?

      about anything ? LOL…

      all you do is talk about your secret weather models then say all forecast are wrong but yours

      you BETTER admit you are 100% wrong on this It is 2pm in short pump 4″+ on the ground

  8. Henrico says:

    I got two exams tomorrow, I’ve decided to take a gander and not study, hopefully it pays off and it starts snowing pretty early tomorrow morning. Can’t imagine them making us go to school with the forecast being the way it is. Hopefully we get another foot out in western Henrico, make some more money from shoveling, might have to invest in a snow blower if we get more winters like this. Anyway how is tuesday-wednesday storm shaping out?

    • Downtown says:

      You should study a little while give each an hour….just wake up early and study 4 to 5 and 5 to 6….by then school may be cancelled, if not you’ll atleast be prepared!! don’t rely on mothernature to bail you out! I used to think the same way…but cramming is better than just taking a chance!

    • Mike says:

      How are those exams going?

  9. Ava says:

    It seems to me that Channel 12’s latest update is tracking closer and closer to what wxrisk has been saying for a while now. Interesting . . .
    (And awesome for us snowlovers!!!)

    • vader1013 says:

      I just saw the Fox 10PM news- still saying a changeover to heavy rain tomorrow night, total slushy snow accumulation 4-8″, which is what they’ve been saying pretty much all day.

  10. iceman2 says:

    I like how is not relying on the models, rather as he calls it “nowcasting”, or waiting to see the radar tomorrow. Haha it was funny during the December 18-19 storm to watch these guys stunned on camera with the snow totals in the area.

  11. Dave says:

    To Henrico County Public Schools. Just go ahead and close schools for tomorrow…come on; get it over with and call it tonight. You know you’re going to do it tomorrow morning anyways 😉 (maybe). My kids really don’t want to go to school tomorrow; and I really don’t feel like risking anyone’s safety and picking them up from school around noon tomorrow because the Superintendent was too short sighted to call off school before it was too late and the secondary streets are coated with ice. 😉

    In case you didn’t know, most of your schools are located on secondary roads that don’t get plowed or salted before the nasty stuff starts.

  12. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    It’s funny, when you watch or they NEVER talk about Richmond! It’s always DC, Baltimore, Phily, New york blah blah blah! Richmond just happens to be the capital of VA ya know! How about giving us a shout out occasionally! Jeesh…

    • DaBeast says:

      I’ve also noticed on TWC, how when they show the US maps, the Northeast maps cut off the data, just above Richmond, and the Southeast maps cut off data, just below Richmond. It’s like we’re the red-headed stepchildren of the weather world.

    • Mike says:

      I am soooo glad someone else noticed that too!!!!!!! My wife and I have been saying that for years. It’s as if Richmond is invisible to the outside world. What is up with that?!?!?!?!

    • Acedoc says:

      LOL! The forums are the same. Even many of the maps drawn up by the amateur (and occasional pro) meteorologists have us in some weather-free dead zone. Maybe that’s why the weather is so hard to predict here: the storms don’t know how to read the maps.

  13. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    To the NBC 12 Weather team. Why don’t you respond to any of the blog posts? I was under the impression that’s how blogs work? This is your blog. You need to participate please.

  14. Jeff J says:

    Dewpoint is 28 at the airport now. Kind of a rain dewpoint huh?

  15. Dave says:

    I’m leaning towards listening to WXRisk’s forecast more than what’s currently being stated on the news. Sorry NBC12, but WXRisk’s site explains things a lot better in terms of why things will happen the way they’ll happen. If anyone on this blog hasn’t checked yet; do so. It’s very informative, thorough.

  16. ryan says: is saying the complete opposite of what tv guys are saying…i’m so confused.

    • Tristan says:

      I think tv sites are just being extremely conservative on the amounts.

      • ryan says:

        i don’t want fake amounts i need to know what i am dealing with so i can plan for it, 4-8 i may go to work 12+ probably not i need ti know! oh well we will see tomorrow

    • Jeff in Matoaca says:

      So far, is batting .1000 for the snow season, so I’m going with them. If you read through his latest 430pm posting, he describes exactly why his forecast is so different, and it makes good sense. What baffles me is that most of the Richmond area is not under a Warning, in fact we’re not even under a Watch down here in Petersburg/Colonial Heights. This makes no sense whatsoever, since every forecast I’ve seen shows at least a complete wintery mess for this area.

      • Jay says:

        Batting .1000 isn’t so good. Now batting 1000, that’s pretty good. 🙂

      • iceman1 says:

        If henrico could be divided, western would no doubt be under a warning.

      • Joe says:

        If you’re batting a thousand, that means 1.000, not 0.1000 as you’ve writen.

        Get the decimal right, son. It’s the difference between being perfection personified or pretty much the bottom of the barrel.

      • Fred says:

        Get a life Joe…it’s a blog not a college essay

    • vader1013 says:

      i’m with ya ryan. someone is horribly wrong on this forecast. it’s annoying not to know what to plan for, and downright irresponsible to intentionally underestimate potential amounts. too many people depend upon an accurate estimation to plan their weekends and important events. when all is said and done with this storm, we’ll know who we can trust in the future. i WILL say that i have seen time and time again NBC12 to lowball totals, and then adjust them quickly once the snow starts falling. unfortunately once it starts falling it’s too late. but, i have also seen them hit it exactly right. like i said, how this storm pans out will determine whom i listen to in the future, since the wxrisk and NBC12 forecasts are so radically different.

  17. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    6pm tv forecast from nbc12 is saying HEAVY RAIN Friday night Richmond and surrounding area!

    • Snowbaby in Short Pump says:

      I just heard Jim D say ( about 10 mins ago ) that Short Pump will get 6-12inches and NO RAIN. Maybe sleet mixed in

  18. vader1013 says:

    yeah NBC12 says 4-8″ with a mainly rain event, which is radically different from posts on this blog. how can the models be so different? I don’t know who to listen to. is NBC12 missing something you guys aren’t?

    • Annie says:


      “Winter storm will come in two phases, Friday and Saturday, with sharp cutoffs between VERY heavy snow totals to the north and northwest of the city of Richmond, and relatively small accumulations to the south.

      Metro Richmond: snow developing Friday morning, continuing into the early afternoon. A changeover to sleet and then maybe rain will occur during the evening. By then accumulations of a slushy 3-6″ will be possible with highest totals North and West of town.

      NW of Richmond Including Western Henrico and Hanover: snow developing mid-morning tomorrow, staying as snow and sleet through evening, with 6-12″ possible by early Saturday morning. Louisa, Fluvanna, and other spots north and west could easily exceed one foot.

      SE of Richmond: snow Friday AM, then a quick changeover to sleet and rain. Snow/ice accumulations will be sharply less here. Expect only 1-4″ here before a quick changeover.

      Charlottesville and DC, other points northern third of VA: 16-24″ totals..huge snowstorm.

      SATURDAY- All areas turn to snow, with additional accumulations of 3-4″, especially eastern VA.

      As usual, the metro area appears to be setting up on the dreaded rain/snow line. Any shift of the storm track could mean a change in accumulation.”

      Where are you getting “a mainly rain event” from that forecast? The mention of possible rain is not the same thing as mainly rain.

      • vader1013 says:

        it was spoken in the broadcast at 5:00. specifically that the heaviest precipitations would come during the rain portion of the storm on Friday night. hypothetically, if there’s two inches of precipitation total- 1.5 inches being just rain and .5 liquid inches being snow, then that i would say is a predominantly rain event. if it was going to be mainly snow event, wouldn’t richmond be in the watch/ warning zones?

      • vader1013 says:

        this is the update:
        UPDATE Thurs 5:30pm: Absolute mess of a storm for metro Richmond-south, with progressively higher snow depths north and northwest of metro. Slushy snow much of Friday changes to sleet and rain-heavy, Friday evening Richmond-south. Back to snow pre-sunrise Saturday, then a few hours worth could bring a few inches accumulation. Jim D.

        i believe the forecast you cut and pasted was the one from earlier this afternoon.

  19. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Jim D. STILL being VERY conservative with his snow totals for the Richmond area. He still says mainly mix friday. Maybe a few inches by end of storm with a little snow coming saturday.

    • Snowbaby in Short Pump says: has a new update. Click on the 5am update to get the new one. His forecast is VERY different from NBC 12’s. BTW–i just heard Jim D’s new forecast and for SHort Pump , it’s still in the 6-12 range. No mention of rain for us

  20. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    So… Is this going to be the “big one”? Will it get on the record books? Yes or no peeps.

    • Jeff in Matoaca says:

      I’m thinking “not”. I don’t know why, I just feel like we’re going to get back into the normal mode where we end up more on the rain side of the rain/snow line. I have nothing whatsoever to base that on, lol, just thinking “how long can this last??”

  21. WXRISK says:

    SIGNIFICANT changes for SATURDAY– heavy snow!

    the 12z GFS EURO CMC all turned the Low East then SE saturday over hatteras then east of hatteras

    This east position of the Low… means that the cold air over CHO and Northern VA then RUSHES back into central and eastern VA

    for this reason ALL the models even the warmish NAM model…has all of RIC metro back to snow by 4-7am saturday.

    these Models shows HEAVY snow bands from DCA and CHO dropping back INTO central and eastern VA… with 0.50 to 1.00″ liquid falling- which could be COUILD BE another 6-10″ of snow
    JUST on saturday.

    it will snow even over williamsburg VA on saturday.

    • Annie says:

      Yeah, but when will the rain of toads and swarm of locusts start? Do I need a shovel after or will a large can of Raid be sufficient?

    • Deja Vu says:

      Seems very similar to the Dec storm but with more moisture…snow, mixing with sleet then changeover to snow again. Still a possibility of dry slotting over central VA area? Weather blogs in Boston have picked up the more ERN-SE movement as well, pretty much resigning to the fact they won’t see much at all from this storm as earlier this week hints of a more northern jog were showing up. Any thoughts on some models racing this storm out to see a little faster than thought?

    • Matt-shortpump says:

      Where do you see .5 to 1.0 inch of liquid for Saturday? The snow will be light Saturday (2-4 inches at best on top of whatever we have from Friday and Friday night).

    • Jeff in Matoaca says:

      Hey there….are you putting the full forecast up at Waiting anxiously 🙂

  22. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Anyone else notice how close the edge of this storm is getting to us? Looks to me like it will close to us wee hours of friday morning (2-3am)

  23. vader1013 says:

    the storm is less than 24 hours away- shouldn’t we be able to tighten up some of the predictions by now? this must be a very, very tricky system. does anyone have any new info? Jim? anyone?

  24. j says:

    You know, I am just going to stick with, this has been right on both recent snow storms. So instead of seeing, snow, rain, well maybe sleet, uh, maybe snow and rain, nope wait, ice and snow, opps, maybe sleet and rain, ha ha, I will stick with what seems to be constant. Thanks wx! I have been viewing your forecast since this first started and will continue to watch! Thanks again

    • vader1013 says:

      I agree, but that forecast hasn’t been updated since 5AM. many things could have changed by then. agh, the suspense is terrible…

      • Tristan says:

        Well they seem to have just updated the forecast on the main weather page, 3-6 inches metro, then 4+ additional Saturday

  25. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Nbc12 weather at noon now saying storm is trending warmer! That’s not good for snow lovers!! That would mean more of a nasty mix.

  26. Lee says:

    Ignore my last post – the line looks further north again in other models. I don’t know what I am talking about here so I am going to stop! 🙂 Someone with some weather expertise – help! 🙂

  27. Maryann says:

    What are the chances of the south getting more of an ice event out of this?

  28. Lee says:

    I don’t know if I am reading this correctly, so don’t take my word, but the new GFS is out and at least at 24 hours out, the line looks further south than it was at 06.

  29. hokiesrule79 says:

    what does wxrisk say now.. is it still going to the south.

    • joe says:

      He is saying a huge Low Pressure system in the Northwest Atlantic is trending to the west and will be the equivalent to a cat 3 or 4 hurricane. This huge low pressure system will force our storm further south and east, allowing for more cold air to hang around. This is starting to trend toward and all snow, or all snow and sleet event for metro Richmond!

  30. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    None of my latest model runs are showing a more southern track. Anyone else seeing it?

  31. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Have you guys looked at the size of this storm on the radar. It’s massive. If this thing holds together and the track still trends south, this would be a massive hit for our area!

  32. Gayton/Gaskins Girl says:

    NBC12 tends to estimate their accumulation totals lower than everyone else…I think we’ll end up seeing more snow than they are saying. I really hope it starts as early as possible so maybe I wont have to go to work! =)

  33. Snowlover says:

    Hi…I’m a mom of three in Prince George. What are the chances of snow for us? My kids are dying to get back out and play in it again?

    • PG Girl says:

      Hi from another PG mom. I’m just not confident from the latest forecast that we will get much snow. You can bet on a lot of rain though. I don’t know how much more the ground can take. I hope I’m wrong, because my kids really enjoyed riding their ATVs and sledding in it!

  34. Matthew says:

    WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. western henrico county 8- 12 inches.

  35. Conway says:

    Capitalweather is only forecasting 3-6 inches here in Richmond…I think these figures are way low given the model trends last night & this morning

    • wxrisk says:

      Captial weather is NOT a great site for RIC. everyone who posts there is a dc native
      and they do not know whata RIC snow pattern is

  36. Annie says:

    Bleh. I was hoping this one would bust, partly for my own purposes and partly to shut up DT’s fanpoodles, who have gotten seriously smug and annoying. But I guess if we have to get anything but rain I’d rather have all or mostly snow than a messy mix.

    I do have to brave the hordes at Ukrop’s today because I waited so long. OH NOES.

  37. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    OK, it’s looking good now for snow lovers!
    My models are finally agreeing, mainly snow Richmond metro. All snow west end.
    Shortpump area may see over a foot by storms end. This could, just maybe, be a larger storm than the 2 previous! I’ll keep you updated throughout today.

    • Snowbaby in Short Pump says: is saying the same thing, Snowman. Short Pump, Western Chesterfield, Amelia, and others will receive alot more snow then metro Richmond.
      WXRISK says it’ll start snowing by 7am friday but other models say midday.
      Lookin’ forward to another big snowstorm !!!

  38. Conway says:

    We are looking at a foot with current 00z GFS run. If models trend colder. That will only add to totals. .
    Vice versa if models trend warmer…

    Most trended colder in Dec storm as well. Mother nature always likes to give us a 1-2 punch on occasion. Happened in 1996.

  39. Jeff J says:

    Jess, New Kent won’t get a foot but could still get a nice snow out of this when it’s all said and done.

    • Jess says:

      Thanks Jeff!!! I don’t know how to read all the models and stuff, so I just go normally on whatever is being said on here….this will be interesting to see what happens! My fingers AND toes are crossed, my 2 year old little girl just wants more sledding, so heres hoping!!!

  40. Henrico says:

    so if the models keep going south the cold air will be able to plunge further south, correct? So if the models continue to trend south we should see a higher snow accumulation forcast right? Hope we get another foot so I can go around and shovel people driveways, good money to be made. Thanks for everyones contributions, and a question to wxrisk, I see on your map that you have richmond in the 3-6 inch range for now, do you think the new trends in the models will prompt you to mode the 12-18 line south more? Just wondering how signficant this southern track is…thanks again

  41. Catherine says:

    How does it look for flying out Friday midday??

    • wxrisk says:

      all of the 0z data is now and the NAM AND GFS are again significantly colder than what they were shown earlier so the trend is continuing.

      Even the warm model the NAM is showing significantly more snow and ice over the Richmond metro area than what this model was
      depicting earlier today. The 0z Nam is now showing only has a brief period of rain from Richmond southward around 1 a.m. Saturday morning.

      The snow moves in Richmond by 7 a.m. according to the 0z Nam — and now the 0z GFS as well — has stay snow right to 7 PM Friday evening. This means that temperature will not get a chance to warm up because the snow will be coming down fairly heavily…. after 7 p.m. the snow turns to all sleet and its heavy sleet Friday night.

      The 0z GFS is also further south and colder with the track and actually has Richmond staying mostly snow! The 925 mb temps and 850 mb temps stay below freezing all through the entire event! If we see another shift in the models like this tomorrow this could be it all snow event for metro Richmond area….

      Right now it looks to me very much like what we saw in December 18-19.. that means if you are Western Henrico Amelia Powhatan you could see up to 12 inches of snow

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        WXRISK..have I not been saying the whole day that you’re predictions seemed way more feasable? The only problem I HAD with your prediction was the dry slot but other than that your forecast has BEEN spot on.

        CAN’T wait for you to be right!

      • SnowSledder says:

        WXRISK…..once again you make a huge prediction, get us all excited, and blow it. Are you trying to get attention? Well you did this time for blowing it. You should change your handle to WXBLOW.

        I am going to enjoy your future posts so the rest us can track you like you do the weather dudes at 12…….but they don’t WXBLOW like you do.

  42. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    From the national weather service for our area:
    Friday: Snow and sleet, mainly after 1pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

    Friday Night: Rain and sleet, becoming all rain after 1am. Low around 32. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

    Saturday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

    • Bob in chester says:

      yesterday had all rain
      please stop posting bad weather info

      • Snowman-Shortpump area says:

        This is from the NWS. I thought they were supposed to be the main weather agency? Don’t they issue the warnings and advisories? Why would we have them in charge if they don’t know shizzle from badizzle?

      • wxrisk says:


        that forecast from NWS is based on 12z or 7am data and weather models.

        some of us have been arguing the trends are moste important than what any 1 model is saying at one time

        I have been on the 4-8″ richmond train for 2 days. yesterday NWS was all rain

      • Snowman-Shortpump area says:

        But my question is why is the NWS the main weather agency if they are sooo slow at reporting/updating?

      • 4Honesty says:

        WXRISK…fact check time. Went to NWS web site, and, at no time in the last 3 days has the NWS forecast EVER forecast “all rain” for Richmond during the upcoming event. Snow was ALWAYS mentioned. Do you only forecast bigger events? Don’t remember ever seeing a forecast for the 3-6 inches Tuesday night in northern VA. Missed that one, huh?

  43. Mike says:

    The new 00z NAM model run just released jumped Western Henrico from about 2″ to 3″ in the last run to about 11″ to 12″ inches this run!

  44. Jess says:

    I think I am gonna get missed totally over here in New Kent this weekend…sooo bummed, I wanted another big storm!!!

  45. Lee says:

    Why is everyone on edge in here???? Chill! We shall see what happens Friday!

  46. Snowbaby in Short Pump says:

    Has anyone checked out ? This guy has become pretty popular in Richmond.

    • snowman-Shortpump area says:

      I have a gut feeling that he will be downgrading his predictions in the morning.

      • Bob in chester says:

        SNOWMAN lets see yesterday every one had all rain except for him . NO one had any snow at all.

        This Morning every one was rain — except for wxrisk. No one had ANY accumulating snow…. except for

        ansd no they have Modre snow..a lot more snow a lot less rain..

        and you think it is the wxrisk forecast in trouble? LOL

    • pcasey says:

      wxrisk seems pretty confident in his last statement. Temps seem to be trending downward into next week. (according to the Twelve guys) He certainly has a way of keeping it interesting. BTW now the Twlve guys are saying snow on tuesday.

  47. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Nbc12 saying models trending north again. Anyone else seeing this? My models are inconclusive at this time.

    • Bob in chester says:

      No that is not the case. NBC 12 was talking about the 18z Nam which is what NWS AKQ said .. which is of course nonsense

  48. vk says:

    Man…do I sense alot of angst among fellow bloggers.

    I love snow…but after shoveling that crap last Sunday…I’m done (not getting any younger).

    4″ will do it for me…just to freshen up what is on the ground already.

    Funny…originally from Toronto…they have had zero snow (other than flurries)…my folks are jealous ! (probably not really).

  49. matt says:

    umm.. my ZIPCODE is 23228.. idk if that helps to see if theres gonna be alot of snow?

    • Annie says:

      You’re going to get 16 feet of snow. I hope you have some weak family members around because you’ll need to go all Donner Party on their delicious flesh if you want to survive. Also, there will be a hurricane and an earthquake. Cheers!

  50. Tristan says:

    Oh darn, I was aiming for more wintry weather, at least we know it will start and transition to such during the beginning and end. I bet it will be a messy rush hour friday though…

  51. Matthew says:

    6 – 12 maybe more west end henrico

  52. tekn0wledg says:

    I definitely think that it’s going to be mostly rain, just from how these borderline storms tend to go in Virginia.

    Honestly though, I’d love to have another 12 inches of snow! After that, I’m ready for summer!

  53. matt says:

    Im hoping it just snows! does anyone know how much snow we’ll get? here in henrico, west end?

  54. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Here’s what’s so funny. I just watched the Weather Channels forecast and they still have the rain thing going on in this area (with some mix) Why does it take them SO LONG to change their forecasts? They are so incredibly slow. It’s a little embarrassing considering they are being paid all that money! And yet us local weather watchers are more accurate!

  55. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    ME me first..

    • Matt-shortpump says:

      So I live in the short pump area too and am wondering what your take on the approaching storm is. I believe we won’t get any rain to be honest. Only a mix if snow, sleet, and freezing rain. (short pump only of course)

      • snowman-Shortpump area says:

        I think at this point we will be getting a signifcant accumalation in the west end.

      • Bob in chester says:

        snowman please make up your mind!

        You just said — above– wxrisk was too high with his snow and you thought he would have to lower his snow amounts

        But now you are saying more snow for western Henrico ?? I mean isnt that what wxrisk has for western henrico county?

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