Wintry-looking pattern longer term

UPDATE Note:  For our forecast discussion of the coming storm, check out our main weather page as well as here.  New blog post on the approaching storm later today.  Snow/Ice jackpot northern and western VA Piedmont.  Metro RIC snow at onset Friday, to rain/sleet, then ending as lighter precip (snow) Saturday.  Some accumulation likely metro area beginning and end of storm, but not like last storm.  Different story northwest VA, where foot or more likely Friday-Friday night.

Quick break from blogging about Friday’s storm, as I find it fascinating that the pieces seem to be falling into place for a continuation, or even deepening of the wintry pattern that could last through at least mid-February.

If this does in fact lock in, look for more southern tracking storms and very cold air.  There will also be a good chance, within such an evolving pattern, that many storms could eventually end up being pushed south of us, leaving our latitudes with very, very cold temperatures, but several storm “misses” instead of “hits”.   We’ll have to see how it shakes out.

* Jim Duncan

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68 Responses to Wintry-looking pattern longer term

  1. Donna says:

    What’s the Northern Neck gonna get? We get left out of Richmond weather and we get left out of the Hampton Roads forecasts! Someone look out for us!!

  2. Mike Augsburger says:

    I’m out in Beaverdam where it seems we always get a ton of snow with these storms. 20 inches in December and about a foot last week. Looking at the map wxrisk posted it appears we are in the 12-18 inch range. Can’t wait to see his updated prediction coming out this evening.

  3. Flakes-ShortPump says:

    Now NBC12 is saying 4″+ in the metro area.
    I’m thinking the airport gets 4.5″ and as you travel west, snow totals increase..reaching to about 8″ in Short Pump…JUST LOOK AT THE MODELS! 🙂

    But I still appreciate the hard work that I know the NBC12 team puts in to predicting…I think right now they are undershooting the forecast a tad bit just to make sure that people can’t get mad. Let’s keep checking out the models sliding more and more south!

  4. owen says:

    It was rain in the forcast tuesday, Mix and snow wednesday, the next change will be all snow,”count on it!”

  5. Chris says:

    seems to be trending more cold air in for this storm. lets see what tomorrow brings.

  6. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    My latest model updates are still not agreeing on what type of precip Richmond and surrounding area will get from this storm. Some are showing major accumilation while others are showing light.

  7. short pump says:

    So yesterday this was mostly a rain event, now it will be more of a snow, sleet, and ice event. This happened because the storm shifted south and east. If this storm continues to travel south could we see a more of a snow event?

    • Tristan says:

      I guess Im confused; so metro richmond will have accumulating snow, and then accumulating ice, then accumulating snow as it ends again?

      So the totals would be inches in snow, and inches in ice?

      No Rain?

  8. Matthew says:

    WRONG JIM GUESS WE WILL SEE!!!!!

  9. Anonymous says:

    Is the tuesday wednesday storm showing any potential for any snow fall? Currently looking like an all snow event.

  10. Russ H. says:

    wxrisk is not all snow… he is saying snow to sleet, no rain.

    I wonder is nbc12 team has read Dt’s reasoning?

    • bob in chester says:

      well the new tv 12 forecast is Now talking about accumulating snow for richmond

      whereas early this morning and last night it was mostly rain

      • scs says:

        Noticed this slight change too! At least you can drive in snow, sleet/ice pretty much traps you where you are!

  11. KarenH says:

    Interesting to see how this one will pan out. The information on WxRisk.com makes alot of sense for the non meterology people like me!

  12. j says:

    I have a question, this individual does forecast for certain industries, his forecast is saying it will be all snow. Check it out, not trying to step on anyone’s toes, but looks interesting, since this guy has been right twice of both the dec and last snow storm we got, including totals. He last updated this morning at 06:00.

  13. Matt-shortpump says:

    Snow possible Tuesday?

  14. Sean says:

    This next storm is so close to being an all rain event, especially east of town. NAM and GFS are finally coming together though although they still have some big differences. I just hate being fringed.

    • Matt says:

      Yeppp this anticipation is killing me.

    • Jeff says:

      Dose it look like all rain in Richmond?

    • Flakes-ShortPump says:

      Don’t worry… Short Pump and areas 10-15+ miles west of the airport will see measurable snow totals this weekend. Look for these kinds of forecast for the next several weeks because the set-up looks to remain the same (like Jim & Andrew said). Looks like most of the storms will come from the west, dip into the south (and draw up moisture), then head up the I-95 corridor. Looks to be an interesting winter! Its about time we get some good snow!

      Be on the look-out for the possiblility for some good snow next week (around Tuesday or Wedesday) because the long range models are showing a cold high setting in and a low pressure system from the south interacting!

      Sorry winter-haters…this looks to be a winter for the snow-lovers!

  15. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    So the question at this time to the NBC12 weather team:
    Have you seen a change to the track of this storm? Is it trending more south than last thought? You’re the experts being paid the BIG bucks here! 😉

    • Jeff says:

      Dose this mean more snow for us?

      • snowman-Shortpump area says:

        If indeed it is tracking more south then yes, more snow for our area.

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        I see a more snowy event for the Short Pump area (with totals reaching 9 inches!). Every mile you go east though, it looks more like rain/sleet/snow. The models are more south and east and the system looks centered over the outerbanks!

        GET READY FOR SNOW SHORT PUMP

      • Tristan says:

        wow so its that type of setup again, seems the third or so time in a row, where every mile receives a different amount of snow or so, lol.

      • snowman-Shortpump area says:

        Tristan,
        Remember, there always has to be a line somewhere. You may have heavy snow say where you are, 5 minutes down the road it’s more sleet and another 5 minutes from that it’s a cold rain. And this line is always a big factor in central VA.

    • Jeff in Matoaca says:

      Yeah…I really don’t get why they have this blog….and then they don’t really participate in it when everyone’s interested in what’s going on. Surely they’ve seen the same models everyone else has, but the silence coming out of there is deafening…

      • snowman-Shortpump area says:

        Jeff, what you have to remember about local weather guys/gals is they can’t panic people with forecasts. They are never going to say days out that we will get a massive snow storm (even if it looks that way)until it’s REALLY close to happening. We don’t want schools, goverment buildings etc. closing because of a forecast unless it’s set in stone.(and it never is until it’s on top of us) Local weather guys on tv/radio are always going to lean on the conservative side. That’s what they are trained for. Now deep down they may have a gut feeling about storms but they can’t use that in their forecasts.

      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        I get that snowman….I guess I’m just saying I wish they would participate more here than they do….they can still be conservative about their forecasts, etc.

      • snowman-Shortpump area says:

        Got ya! 🙂

      • Annie says:

        Eh, what are they going to do, get into internet slapfights over model interpretation? That’s a waste of time and energy, not to mention it’s unprofessional. Let DT and others be all “LOL UR SO RONG OMG!” like teenies arguing over the Jonas Brothers vs. Justin Bieber. I like that Jim and Andrew simply post their forecasts and analyses and generally stay out of the minute-by-minute obsession over the latest model runs.

      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        As long as you brought up Jonas Bros. and Justin Bieber, lol, does anyone actually think that the “new” We Are The World is going to be able to hold a candle to the original? I mean, some on….Bruce, Willy, Ray Charles, Billy Joel, etc. etc. vs……..who?

      • davidgentry says:

        I agree with Snowman and Annie. The hater/troll posts would be overwhelming if their level of participation increased – just because of the plain and simple fact that they participated in the discussion if the forecast was accurate or not.

    • Jeff says:

      Dose it look like more of a snow event?

  16. Flakes-ShortPump says:

    http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/gfs0.5e.html

    Check them out for yourselves! The models have shifted south and the cold air look more set-in place for atleast a good 6 inches!

    • Jeff in Matoaca says:

      …which pretty much agrees with this chart at wxrisk:

      • Flakes-ShortPump says:

        The ONLY thing I see wrong with that is the dry spot.
        I see constant precip all through the storm.

    • Matt says:

      These graphics have the surface temps at the highest 35 degrees throughout the entire event. That means all frozen precip. yet this disagrees with every metteorologists outlook. I’m confused…

      • bob in chester says:

        all tv mets forecast almost alwasy mirro whatever the NWS forecast says

        last night / early this morning nws said all rain… so they do

        actually channel 12 seems to be the best forecast right now

  17. Flakes-ShortPump says:

    I have been looking at the models VERY closely, and I disagree with NBC12’s forecast (although I still love NBC12!). It DEFINITELY looks like my area — Short Pump — will have more snow than say the airport: I think we all agree with that by looking at the current model runs with the 00z and 06z. Honestly people…it’s TOO EARLY to tell what precip is going to be, but I do not think it looks like a “mainly rain event”. I can see it raining 20% of the time (Friday evening), snowing 60% of the time (Friday night and Saturday) and have a mix 20% of the time (throughout the storm).

  18. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Again, “‘track, track, track”. Always the main ingredient to “our” typical snow events. And this is going to make all the difference to what we see with this BIG (yes, it’s going to be big)storm.

    It has to take more of a southern track this time so more cold air pushes in from the north. The cold air is out there but it’s fighting with the track of the storm. Further north it tracks, the warmer the air. If it does indeed now go further south, we may see more frozen stuff in Richmond area (with colder air pushing in). I think at this point, far west end is looking good for some measurable snow. Metro Richmond is still sitting on the line with more mix/rain/snow.

    I’ll have more this evening.

  19. ryan says:

    i’ll take whatever is thrown my way.

  20. wyn says:

    I don’t envy the forecasters who have to predict in front of thousands. Last night the Richmond area had at the same time,rain,rain & sleet and snow in a 10 mi. path. (west to Short Pump)

    • snowman-Shortpump area says:

      Matthew,
      Is Joe Bastardi at accuweather.com giving you these charts? They’re very exagerated! 😉

  21. Jackie says:

    From what I can tell, it looks like the storm for the weekend has shifted South which means Richmond is more likely to get hit with a major snow event again.

  22. Jeff in Matoaca says:

    WXRisk is calling for an entirely different forecast and being fairly vocal about how they disagree with what the local TV guys are calling for now….check it out:

    http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/VAWX.html

    • Melissa says:

      I’m curious what Jim’s reaction is to what this site is saying? And is this site typically accurate or not?

      • Jeff in Matoaca says:

        After the first big snow back in Dec., the Channel 12 guys were pretty complimentary about them. This last storm was kind of a no-brainer and everyone pretty much agreed on the forecast, so there wasn’t anything to agree or disagree on (although…wxrisk did nail the actual precip time accurately way before the TV guys did). So I guess we’ll have to see….

    • bob in chester says:

      The new channel 12 forecast has MORE snow… read their Blog entry dont they say

      “…accumulating snow is likely for richmond metro area?”

  23. Snow Queen says:

    Bring it on!

  24. snow says:

    I hope it snows 3 times a week until april.

  25. MICHELLE says:

    I hope this is the last snow storm for February! Snow, Snow go away!

  26. GL says:

    It would be nice to have snow on the ground for the whole month of Feb.. 🙂

  27. JB says:

    Budget for those heating bills….

  28. J.r says:

    5 inches of snow tonight in Waynesboro

  29. Tristan says:

    Oh dear, I hope just more snow comes, I love how it looks. Through mid Februuary would be nice

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