El Nino Update from NCEP

El Nino will likely continue through this spring

The southern storm track this season has walloped us with frequent storms and record-setting precipitation.  BUT that’s not necessarily because of El Nino.   The numbers actually bear out that Mid-Atlantic precipitation is about average during El Nino years.  

Check out the following graphic:  It shows precipitation anomolies from previous El Nino years for Jan., Feb., and March.  You’ll notice Virginia is in a “no change” zone.

a snippet from the Advisory:

potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.

*posted by Andrew Freiden



12 Responses to El Nino Update from NCEP

  1. Omix13 says:

    Why is Nottoway County not included in the Winter Watch-Warnings. We do have weather here also. It’s been snowing since about mid-night here on top what was left from last storm. Our childeren have not had school in over a week. Now there is some news.

  2. Carolyn Ball says:

    Dear Andrew Freidman,
    I think you are the best weather man on TV but my boss “Kelly” doesn’t think so!!! What do you think about that? She thinks national weather is better! I don’t think so…../././ How should I handle this conflict with my boss?

  3. Matt-shortpump says:

    Does each El Nino have an affect on every region if the U.S. ? Or just southeast?

  4. Acedoc says:

    Sadly, I think we’re going to see some major flooding if we get a Nor’easter in March, with warm melting temps in the mountains.

  5. Tom says:

    Where I come from, and it’s from the country and we don’t need to use a radar or computer, that is a sure fire indicator of snow. All it is is moisture in the air that is already freezing, meaning th cold air is already aloft.

  6. Mark says:

    What is that glowing ring in the sky with light balls around it right now?

  7. 4Honesty says:

    It’s important to remember that those graphics are an average of all El Nino events (weak, moderate and strong). No El Nino winter is the same as another. Why? Because there are atmospheric factors (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North America Index (PNA) that can have a major impact on the temperature and precipitation patterns during an El Nino winter. The precipitation amounts since November 1, 2009 have been quite anomalous (especially November & December), but the pattern (highest in the South, with much less in the Plains) has been quite consistent with what would be expected during an El Nino.

  8. Doohickey says:

    Okay, so basically the weather changes from year to year and we’re not entirely sure why. El Nino may be an effect rather than a cause of dynamic weather patterns.

    Nothing to see here folks. Move along, move along.

  9. afreiden says:

    No. Not normal at all. Way above normal precip. Just a much wetter el nino than normal for the Mid-Atlantic

  10. Tristan says:

    Oh so this is quite normal?

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