On forecast accuracy

Here’s a must-read article by Dr. Patrick Michaels that appeared last week in the Op-Ed of Richmond Times Dispatch.

* Jim D.

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39 Responses to On forecast accuracy

  1. kate says:

    I really would like to know why it is almost always downplayed by Mr. frieden every morning when we here in Prince George were in a blizzard like conditions and he stated it was sunny in the south and east of town this morning??? Very upset being that I drive students to and from school and was under very dangerous conditions? Why do we never hear about Prince george areas anyways? They never mention us or put us on the map when they show areas and snow totals? Highly disappointed!!!

  2. Bob in chester says:

    But Heather/ Forest Hills

    wxrisk has often said Good things about TV12 WEATHER all the time. Not sure what YOU are reading..

    still I do wonder why 5 days on the last 3 events wxrisk correctly called for significant snow when others did not and you think that is “fake” sort of like pro wrestling

  3. Owen says:

    yall are nice…!

  4. Chris says:

    what are the odds we see freezing rain out of this?

  5. Matt says:

    PRECIP IN STORM AT THIS TIME SUN/MON

  6. Matt says:

    SFC TEMPS SUN MON

  7. Matt says:

    THERE THIS ANOTHER STORM BUT IT IS A GOOD WAYS OUT STILL STORM IS 171 TO 180 HRS. OUT AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I AM GOING TO WATCH THIS STORM RUN DATA!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. diegroundhogdie says:

    what happened to that wrap-around event on Saturday? NBC12 downplayed the threat and forecast 1-3″. I had 8″ at my house in the Bryan Park area, and just barely made it home from work safely Sat. afternoon (bc I was going on the 1″-3″ forecast so I stayed later than I should have). I believe the lesson this winter is to just use anyone’s forecast as a guide, not the gospel. but there IS a tremendous difference between 2″ and 8″…. let’s face it- after this winter, 2″ would barely cause anyone to take notice. I would rather see a projection that says 1″-10″ just so I’d know the potential of getting slammed existed. but when 1-3″ is delivered so definitively and it turns out to be waaay off the mark, I wonder if anyone anywhere can accurately predict central VA’s weather.

  9. davidgentry says:

    Doesn’t this early/mid week weather situation warrant its own thread? Regardless of how weak or strong it may be.

    • diegroundhogdie says:

      I think it definitely does. If I’m out in it AGAIN and situations become dangerous quickly because of a lowball estimate I’m gonna be very upset.

  10. ryan says:

    I’ve had 36 inches of snow at my house in the westend, considering Richmond’s avereage snowfall is 13 inches(my source could be wrong) i just can’t see mother nature contiuning this onslaught of snow….i would love it to continue for another month but its got to balance out at some point, right?

    time will tell.

  11. Matt says:

    Threat of Another Immobilizing Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm

    Widespread, disruptive snow will result from a major winter storm that will advance eastward over the nation during the early and middle parts of the week.
    
Farther south, a thin band of mixed wintry precipitation will separate the snowstorm from heavy rainfall reaching southward to the Gulf.
    
The leading edge of snow will reach the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Here, things will wrap up in a big way on Wednesday. As the merged lows meet the Atlantic coast, the resulting coastal storm will strengthen rapidly. Impact here could be a major midweek snowstorm along I-95 and elsewhere in the mid-Atlantic.

  12. Matt says:

    i just looked at the MAM-WRF AT 60 HRS AND IT SHOW’S SNOW UP TO 3 – 4 INCHES WEST END HENRICO?

  13. B - Chesterfield says:

    Hello Channel 12 News Team,
    Is Tuesday’s storm expected to cause any real accumulation leading to icy roads/school closings or will this just be messy while the precip is falling?

    Thank you guys for keeping us informed!

  14. owen says:

    No offence channel 12 but every snowstorm you have been on the low side of estimating acculumations. but precip type has been dead on!!!

    • Anon says:

      Owen, no offense to you but it would seem you missed the point of that article. Fluctuations are often do to where that cold weather is able to go.

      While there are some areas that didn’t fall in the predicted accumulation totals, the forecasting has been pretty good from all Richmond weather stations. They haven’t missed any storms and they haven’t overhyped any either. In the Brandermill area specifically, the totals have fallen right in the predicted totals. So for this area at least, the forecasting has been spot on.

  15. owen says:

    first!!!! Everybody else is saying snowstorm on tue. wed. why not 12.

    • Anon says:

      Where are you getting “everybody else” from? WWBT, WRIC and WTVR all have similar forecasts.

    • Sean says:

      How do you classify a “snowstorm”?

    • Mike Pender says:

      Accuweather is saying rain. So who is everyone else?

      • Gaskins/Gayton Girl says:

        He’s probably talking about the wxrisk guy..Dave Tolleris…but he isnt saying we’ll get snow…NBC12 is saying snow at first, then sleet, the rain…then changing back to snow and ending wednesday am.
        It is difficult to forcast these storms because they change so suddenly…give NBC12 a break…

      • Heather - Forest Hills says:

        I kinda enjoy the wrisk guy …entertaining….like ‘pro wrestling.’

        Still would like more snow to add to record books (as long as no one gets hurt!):)

        Keep up the good work NBC 12!

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