Winter’s return

The pattern ahead will be governed by a huge upper-level low pressure system becoming lodged over the Northeast, acting like a spinning wheel as it ushers modified arctic air southward across the Midwest and mid-Atlantic.  It will be turning colder, for sure, but nothing extreme due to increasing seasonal factors as we move out of deep winter towards spring.

At the same time, a vigorous southern jet stream will rip multiple waves of low pressure eastward across the Deep South over the next week to ten days.  Opportunities for snow will be largely dependent on the tracks.

We will address these forecast issues on the main web discussion page daily.  Meanwhile, feel free to crank up the hyped discussion to your heart’s content in the comments section below :).

*Jim

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107 Responses to Winter’s return

  1. davidgentry says:

    For no other reason than I just have a feeling, I think we are going to be on the warm side of next week’s storm. Now don’t get me wrong, I love snow just as much as anyone else around here. And what better time to get a snow storm then the first week of March? Because it typically doesn’t stick around for very long.

    I guess we will just have to wait and see. Gotta love weather!

  2. weatherfan23060 says:

    front page of the metro in the richmond times dispatch goes like this….. DAVE TOLLERIS “I AM CONFIDENT CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM”

  3. weatherfan23060 says:

  4. Matt says:

    HUGH MARCH SNOWSTORM VA NC SNOW 3/2 – 3/4 LOOKING MORE &MORE Likely
    http://www.wxrisk.com/?cat=16

  5. snowmanshortpump says:

    Andrew F. You just said on your 7am tv report that there is only a “slim chance” of a storm here next week. wxrisk (who called last nights forecast over everyone else) says this about next week. “Let’s move on to the next event for our beloved Virginia   . There is little doubt now in my mind that the system coming from March 2 -3 is going to bring in significant if not major snowstorm for central and south”
    can you explain how you are so different on your predictions?

  6. Brandon says:

    If channel 12 doesnt allow the models to show what I am talking about I invite you all to go to http://www.NOAA.org and take a look at the 18z GFS and the 00z GFS to look for themselves, if this is posted twice its only because when I posted the first it said awaiting moderation from 12… the last one that said that didnt post… so this will have no model links
    As you can see down the blog I had posted some models backing up my thoughts that it MAY snow next week, these show just the oppposite since I am trying to help people out with learning weather I am not going to show just my opinion.
    My question is meteorologically speaking what is keeping the low that far south????????
    In my opinion not much and the GFS will correct itself to come in line with its ensembles and other models, once the New England noreaster has done its thing through the end of the week. Best guess this weekend everyone will know; to SNOW or NOT????? Its anyones gues right now and everyone should be able to agree on that.

  7. DT-wxrisk snowmanshortpump Brandon Vader1013 Tristan John Scott Kevin Terri Annie Joe Sean says:

    All of you really need to lighten up. IT’S WEATHER! Yes, there are multiple weather models to pull from. Yes, they all say something different. Yes, every meteorologist has their favorite. That doesn’t mean that anyone should be aggressive or even rude over their prediction of what is coming. It really drags this blog down when you guys post hateful words like this.

  8. Bradford says:

    I am really glad to see Ross Runner on the NBC 12 team. I remember him when he was on CBS 6 a few years ago. Welcome Ross.

  9. mystic says:

    18z GFS says next week storm is west and north.

  10. mystic08 says:

    Not sure if you guys looked at the last 18z gfs, but the s/w is trying to come back west and north. DT is also liking this storm. Still early and we need to get pass the current one as to not get feed back into the models.

  11. kevin says:

    Anyone know whats up with the wxrisk.com site today ? Wanted to see what he had to say about next weeks storm as he has been saying it had lot’s of potential.
    Also people, like one person said, the weather changes so much and that changes weather down the road as well.Look at what local forecasts were saying yesterday compared to tonight.None of them are going to step out on a limb and look stupid.With all the data at anyone’s fingertip’s any of us could make a forecast that would be just as good as their’s.
    My prediction for next week. It might SNOW. How’s that for taking a risk, lol.

  12. mrmartin says:

    I had to join and post…

    Jeez, I can’t understand half of you guys. Don’t you have something better to do? Take it to the playground or bathroom and get out of here.

    • mrbaker says:

      the playground? bathroom? get out of here? what are you the moderator of this site? i thought these comment WERE for posting about weather

      • mrmartin says:

        why are you biting at me? that’s what i’m saying… discuss only the weather. your acting the same age as some below. now go and enjoy yourself.

    • Annie says:

      Why would i take it to the bathroom? or WHAT would i take to the bathroom?

      • mrmartin says:

        Annie, i just looked over the thread, my remarks were not pointed at any of your posts! i agree, let it snow and i hope the euro model is correct!

      • mrmartin says:

        me o my, i have enough children to deal with. have fun.

  13. Mrbaker says:

    there are really some ignorant and uneducated people on here and here is why. you guys are saying it will be too warm for snow next week because the 7 day forecast show highs in the 40’s and 50’s??? last time i checked you CANNOT make a storm prediction off a 7 day forecast ESPECIALLY WHEN IT IS 7 DAYS OUT. this is WEATHER we are talking about it CHANGES it is almost IMPOSSIBLE to predict. and by the way NBC, there are more models then the GFS like the EURO, UKMET, and the Canadian. have a good evening everybody and hope you are ready for snow next week 🙂

    • Brandon says:

      a fellow REAL weather follower just trying to help the people learn a thing or two that the mets wont tell you…..

    • snowbaby in Short Pump says:

      Actually channel 8 now has next wed and Thursday in the mid 30’s and John B mention a storm for Wed that needs watching.

    • Dudley says:

      Mrbaker did you actually read what you wrote? You people are insane. So people who think it will be to warm for snow next week are wrong because it’s 7 days out and you said yourself it is impossible to predict. Then you go on to say “hope you are ready for snow next week”. Hey mrbaker “this is weather we are talking about it changes it is almost impossible to predict” those words look familiar? I think you have proven who is ignorant. PS. get your tissues ready crybaby, no snow next week!

      • mrbaker says:

        actually i said that you guys are basing your forecast on the 7 day forecast. which is wrong. and yes it is Nearly impossible to predict weather. but i hate to tell you….. are you ready for this…… that models are leanings TOWARDS SNOW. you might want to keep those tissues… and i still want to know, where is your proof that there wont be snow next week?

      • Brandon says:

        You are going to look like such an idiot next week……. good thing you cant delete this post, maybe you can retract that statement on sunday when your boys here at 12 put snowflakes on there map!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Tristan says:

        Even the NWS is increasing the POPs for the tuesday/wednesday period for next week. Naysayers against the snow chances should really reconsider what they are saying.

        Bring on the snow!

  14. Brandon says:

    Hey andrew and Jim…….. whats the difference in the 12zGFS and the 18zGFS


    you thinik its close to 300 miles or so north I mean anyone who looks at them can see that

  15. hayden says:

    i`m ready for more snow

  16. Matt says:

    Euro show’s 1.5 precip March 3 – 4!!!

  17. Mike says:

    “Another storm next week is indicated to head pretty far to our south, so could miss us completely, but we’ll watch.” Andrew F must only look at the GFS model. Both the latest Canandian and Euro ensembles have us getting a pretty decent hit in Richmond March 2nd – 3rd.

  18. genjac3213 says:

    Just issued by the NWS Wakefield…

    FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-
    LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-BRUNSWICK-
    DINWIDDIE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LOUISA…FARMVILLE…GOOCHLAND…
    SOUTH HILL…CREWE…COLONIAL HEIGHTS…RICHMOND…LAWRENCEVILLE
    328 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
    7 PM EST THURSDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7
    PM EST THURSDAY.

    LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY…
    AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
    LATER TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THURSDAY AND
    THURSDAY NIGHT…AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RAIN WILL
    CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
    MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR….WHICH COULD
    RAPIDLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO NEAR
    WHITE OUT CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE
    MORNING COMMUTE).

    SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW
    TAPERS OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING.
    ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
    MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON…WHICH WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
    ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. TOTAL SNOWFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE (LOCALLY HIGHER
    AMOUNTS)…MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

    IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW…SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
    GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
    WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE
    VISIBILITIES…AND MAY CAUSE WHITE OUT (NEAR BLIZZARD) CONDITIONS
    AT TIMES.

  19. vader1013 says:

    here comes Peter Cottontail, hoppin’ down the bunny trail, hippity-hoppity Easter’s on it’s waaaay…

  20. Matt says:

    Snow is not looking for Mar 3 – 4 not saying we will not get snow but most of the heavy precip will be off the coast and up no the north. But this always as you know can change.

  21. Nicole says:

    I LOVE the excitement of snow, even if it may not amount to anything. right now it is raining with a couple of snowflakes mixed it on the north west side of town.

  22. snowmanshortpump says:

    Snow mixing in with rain here in westend.

  23. Dudley says:

    The forecasters will back off this forecast later in the day today. It will be to warm for the snow they speak of. Yes it’s still Feb and yes it has snowed in March but it’s only possible not likley. It has also been in the 80’s in Feb. By the way you do notice how long the sun is still out in the evenings? = warming conditions. No more significant snow for this season. Sharpen your mower blades and get your sunscreen. It’s a wrap.

    • Tristan says:

      That statement doesnt really make sense.

      It implies that the sun would in all cases cause heating that would prohibit any snow accumulations in all situations. If a cold enough air mass is in place, as well as cold air being funneled in, even if there were some sunlight, the cold air would still win out over heating caused by the sun.

      There is also the fact that the percipitation could fall during the nighttime hours when there isnt any sunlight to begin with. Thus there would be chances for accumulating wintry percipitation then.

      Furthermore the statement about the sun out in the evenings, what if there are clouds in place and there is no sun to be seen down here? My knowledge fo the effects of clouds is limited but the effect of warming by sunlight effect would be inhibited if there are clouds already in place before the sunlight even has a chance to shine its rays on the surface.

      If we take your statement and apply it to last year, then the significant snow event occured in March like the 8th (I know it was before my spring break), the week after we hit 70 I believe. Until we reach the Spring Break period, I would believe that there are ample chances for significant snow

      • Dudley says:

        Dear it’s not about the sun actually shining on your face! It’s the fact that this time of the year the earth’s axial tilt is once again getting closer to the sun. (the end of winter solstice)that’s why it will continue to stay light later. It will happen even if you never see the sun peak from behind the clouds again.

      • Tristan says:

        Im well aware of that but the factor would have to be more complicated than just the angle that the sun shines. Otherwise that wouldnt explain why other circumstances occur

      • JB says:

        Both of you make good points and some true statements. Another reality is that as Feb winds down and we get into March, while it’s obviously possible to have significant accumulating snows in this part of the country, the chances slim down considerably – i.e., more critical for all the ‘snow’ factors to come together and would think that temps are the biggest snow buster now….

      • Jolene says:

        I recall just a few years ago….April 16th (we all remember that day) It snowed most of the afternoon. Granted, it only stuck to the grass, but it still snowed mid-April.

    • David H. says:

      Tristan brought up last year’s snow … and there have been many, many big and small snows in March. While you’re correct in the amount of sunlight and the angle of the sun, the fact that you’re dismissing snow is just ridiculous.

      • Dudley says:

        I covered everything ya’ll are babling about in my original comment. Once again, there will be no more significant snow storms in the Richmond area THIS season. Will there be significant snowstorms somewhere? yes, here NO. Enjoy the rain and wet flakes that will amount to nothing! You will go to school and you will go to work.

      • David H. says:

        I guess you’re in complete denial that last year in the second week of March that 10 inches of snow pretty much came out of no where.

      • Dudley says:

        Oh my god can you read my original statement? And yes I’m in denial because it was March 1st not the second week of March. And what does last year have to do with now? I knew I would push the cry baby buttons when I started the topic.

    • Joe says:

      so according to dudely do right it can never snow in central VA in march?

      what a clown

  24. ryan says:

    and back to the weather……i like snow, i hope I wake up to snow on the ground tomorrow. I’m at 40 inches for the year at my house, i’d love to get closer to 50 or even over in teh next couple weeks. bring it.

  25. wyn says:

    A thought- please keep it civil and willing to accept others opinions. No one is correct 100% of the time,esp. w/ the weather & our geographical location.Some of these postings & comments re:12 are not making this blog fun to read.

  26. Smart man says:

    Looking at the most recent models, the low in the northeast has stalled. This is great news for us. Could help cold air push even further south, helping out with that March 3 storm.

  27. Brandon says:

    what an uptight blog this is….. wont even allow posts of the euro model enembles on here….. maybe you mets at chanel 12 can learn a thing oir two from this as off as you are at predicting this winters weather

    • afreiden says:

      Brandon,
      I’d be happy to talk to you via phone about your issues with our blog. Feel free to give me a call here at the station.
      Thanks,
      Andrew

      • vader1013 says:

        if you are at work, then maybe you should be WORKING, brandon, instead of being nasty on the weather blog.

      • Brandon says:

        Andrew I think you should do something about people being able to post under others names…… I know dave and I know he didnt post the post below….just as I never posted anything rude about your personal nuber or got hostile at all…… as you can see there is no way the e-mail address from that post is mine. I tried to post the euro ensembles and you all didnt allow them to post that was my only beef. I wasnt trying to be rude by my post just trying to show the people what the EURO ensembles were showing.

      • Brandon says:

        andrew I thought this blog would be a great way to show some people some other things about the models that you all dont show or tell them…. the euro and the canadian…… I will stick to the wtvr chat room and the WXRISK.COM CHATROOM as those you dont really have people trying to post rude things under your name….. I watch every station and take it all in keep up the good work but I will not return to this blog.

      • vader1013 says:

        Don’t let the door hit you where the good lord split you.

      • Brandon says:

        vader you offer such great insight thats why this blog is the way it is you can find tons of people actually talking about weather on the wtvr chat and the risk chat but its ok guess you were just born that way ignorant that is

      • vader1013 says:

        I thought you were leaving, sad sack.

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      Awww Brandon, you’re in trouble now!

  28. Sean says:

    These comments are worthless now.

  29. snowmanshortpump says:

    Accuweather showing high 40’s to 50’s next week. Weather Chanel showing 50’s next week. And NWS showing 50’s next week. Are you saying they are all wrong on the temp. It needs to be 20 degrees colder for a good size snow storm. Sorry guys and girlies, gonna be too warm.

    • Brandon says:

      naccuweather and the national wrong service great post dude lok at the euro ad cad the leading modes all winter…….. and by the way your inaccweather forecast has no accumulating snow through friday……
      but here is a link by a inaccu met calling for 3-6 mybe you should rethink where you getyour info from and actuallylearn a thing or two
      http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness

    • Joe says:

      snowdork in short pump

      your reasoning is silly. The reason WHY those temps are mild for next week is that None of those models have the Low bringing us snow or rain.

      Only the Canadian and european Models have the storm and THOSE models are not used to make temperature forecasts by NWS or accu weather.

      The americans models keep it sunn so of course the temps will be mild. Its March

      you are using a Model which says t will be sunny to prove it will be sunny.???

      dude when you finish middle school let us know

  30. Brandon says:

    I do believe that anyon not talking about the potential of this storm must be lookig at the GS opperational only,,,,,, the ensembles clear;y show a large storm possibly effecting us sure it is a long ways out but why not be prepared instad of waking up tue and the news blowing this up….. something we have see coming 7-0 days out. The local mets air too much on the side of caution just because of tv

    • Annie says:

      I looked at the long range temps for next week and it’ll be in the mid 40’s. Too warm for snow. Someone prove me wrong, plz ! I want snow !!!!

      • Tristan says:

        Looking at the “model” that was posted in the first three responses of this topic, you can clearly see that Virginia, perferabbly our area of central VA, is in the “30’s” of that temperature gradient.

        I think the temperatures i published forecasts will lower once that Low moves into position tonight and such.

      • John says:

        The reason WHY those temps are mild for next week is that the weather Models used for making temperature forecasts for next week have the southern storm missing us.

        so they have it sunny which in early March means U 40s and L 50s

        Only the Canadian and european Models have the storm and THOSE models are not used to make temperature forecasts by NWS or accu weather.

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      Just too warm for accumulating snow. Sorry guys.

  31. anonymous says:

    snowmanshortpump – I’ve been reading this blog for a while, and I just saw your response to DT-wxrisk. Surprisingly enough the posts occurred within a minute. Unless you’re constantly refreshing this blog, I’d say that you’re just stirring up hype by posting under someone else’s apparent identity. Don’t stoop that low.

    – John

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      Which snowman?

    • John says:

      Agreed….he’s just a blow-hard….two weeks ago he said he was leaving and not coming back because “winter is over”

      • John says:

        No I am the real John. No wait maybe I am not …

        folks this board is a joke. Anyone at any time can post under any name there is.

        I have no idea if wxrisk ever really actually posted here or not and neither does anyone.

        for all we know snowmanin shortpump could also be wxrisk

  32. kevin says:

    Next week will probably be our best chance at a big snow before the pattern changes.To be honest,I’m sick of looking at model runs four times a day as they change so much from run to run.Anything more then 2-3 days away is a crap shoot at best.Seem’s like what looks to be a good chance at snow for us always takes a course to the right or left and misses us.
    I just want us to get that really big snowstorm.
    I’d like to see the NBC12 weather team give us some insight as to how this may go next week.Like a daily update with their thoughts on it, thanks

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      Most of my model runs have the temps just too high in VA. Sorry guys and gals, I love the snow like the rest of youz. I just don’t want ya’all getting ya hopes up. And the NBC12 weather team just don’t know at this time. They will NOT speculate here, that’s for sure.
      Let’s see what comes out on the 12:00 Gznum run.

  33. Terri says:

    NO SNOW! I work in 911 and no one around here knows when to stay in and when to go out and they drive like it’s 95* outside, then wonder why the police officer doesn’t get to their wrecked car 30 seconds after they call.

    But then, thanks to all of you folks’ stupidity, I have job security.

  34. Jolene says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m just sayin’

  35. Matt says:

    it will not be to warm as someone said take a look http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_sfc_tmin.gif

  36. Janet says:

    last year on March 2nd we got 8 inches or so….let it snow let it snow let it snow!!!

  37. JB says:

    Old Man Winter – bring it on, cause your days are numbered. Spring is knocking on the door with days of fun & sun.

    p.s. please no ice storms though….

  38. snowmanshortpump says:

    Too warm now for much snow. Sorry!

  39. Tristan says:

    Before the naysayers arrive!

    Please oh dear, lets us get tons of snow. I want another snow record and I do want snow on a tuesday, wednesday or thursday! Four class a day is intense and I need yet another break, lol.

    And I love looking at snow fall, it doesnt seem like we had any snow related deaths either (to my knowledge) so all is good with snow!

    • vader1013 says:

      don’t you get a little thing called “Spring break”?

      • Tristan says:

        A true school break is one in which there are no assignments due AND classes to attend nor things to study for. The March Spring Break includes the fact that it happens and tests to study for.

        A surprise snow event means no assignments, no classes, and a delay of the entire schedule 😛

        Plus I have to attend a conference over spring break on campus this year, so I dont really get a “Spring Break”

  40. Matt says:

    MAR. 2 – 3

  41. Annie says:

    When will it turn cold? Will it be cold enough for snow next week?

    Crank up the snow !!!

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