A mixed bag

Per my previous blog post (2/27), the storm slated to affect us Tuesday into early Wednesday will be a mixed picture for our area, i.e. rain and snow.

The track will bring the system up the coast from near Florida by Tuesday night, shooting it to the northeast, east of Hatteras, by Wednesday morning. Moisture will arrive by Tuesday evening in the form of light rain or rain/snow mix, then as temperatures cool overnight, it will change to wet snow, ending Wednesday morning.

Surface temperatures will remain at or slightly above freezing, and ground temps on the warmish side, so any accumulations of snow that occur will be mainly on grassy surfaces. Accumulation potential, even if primarily on those grassy areas, will be determined by two obvious factors; how many hours it snows and how heavy it falls. That will be determined by the eventual track of the storm.

Precipitation could linger longer over the eastern part of Virginia Wednesday, but daytime temperatures will bounce enough to change any wet snow back to rain or a rainy mix.

As always, check our main weather discussion page for updated info.

* Jim D.

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56 Responses to A mixed bag

  1. weatherfan23060 says:

    strong El Niño to continue tru spring said by Al Roker.

  2. snowmanshortpump says:

    It’s been fun everyone. Time for me to say goodbye for this winter. See y’all in December.
    I’m out………

  3. snowmanshortpump says:

    Now that’s just wude!

  4. jlesterg says:

    Is winter over?

  5. snowmanshortpump says:

    Looks like I was right. I said it was going to be too warm over a week ago. Everyone gave me a hard time. I’ll take those apologies now.

  6. southsidejeff says:

    OK, OK…after reading through all this I agree that I have been too harsh on WX. It stops now, at least from me.

  7. weatherfan23060 says:

    MIX BAG I DON’T CALL 4- 8 IN MIX BAG!

    • southsidejeff says:

      It’s not gonna be 4-8 inches…in fact, after it turns to rain tonight, Im betting nothing left tomorrow

      • realdeal2010 says:

        better get that apology ready for wxrisk

      • southsidejeff says:

        Apology for what? we’re not getting any snow which will be there tomorrow morning

      • southsidejeff says:

        And besides that…he didn’t have enough confidence in his own forecast to stick with it, so if we do get snow now, he’s STILL wrong.

  8. snowmanshortpump says:

    Poor Jim D. did’nt really know what to say on the 5:15pm forecast just now. Could turn out to be a mess overnight. My models still don’t show much sticking though. Well see.

    • tyler1279 says:

      its already mixing quite a bit and the sun isn’t down yet. I don’t think this will be anything major, but it could be very interesting as temperature continue to fall near freezing…

      • tyler1279 says:

        100% snow in the westend at 650pm. 1/8th of an inch, 33 degrees, I smell a potential Bust…

  9. tyler1279 says:

    significant mixing of rain and snow in the westend around the west end. my thermometer reads 34 degrees

    it is actually stiching to the trash can lid outside my window as I type this. lol!

  10. cabinetsales says:

    I wonder when that big slug of heavy rain that’s NE of Raliegh right now comes through Chesterfield if it will pull the cold air down enough to switch it to snow at that point. If so, we might be in for a surprise here around 7-8 with a heavy burst of snow.

  11. snowmanshortpump says:

    Snow mixing in with rain in west end at 4pm. Temp in my yard around 35

  12. snowplowin says:

    It is snowing pretty good here in Farmville now. The temp right now is reading 31 degrees and it is sticking pretty good to grassy surfaces.

  13. southsidejeff says:

    This guy’s still predicting 4-8 inches for most of us..

    http://www.examiner.com/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2010m3d2-Snowstorm-to-affect-the-triangle-tonight

    Thoughts?

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      Looks to me like it’s a little closer to the coastline?

      • southsidejeff says:

        It’s actually looking a whole lot more impressive right now than it did this morning…temps are dropping, barometer’s dropping…maybe we’ll get something out of this after all…

      • snowmanshortpump says:

        Does this mean we will have to apologize to DT-wxrisk?

      • southsidejeff says:

        a) it hasn’t happened yet
        b) whatever happens won’t be the “HUGE” event he was calling for only a couple of days ago
        c) he’s still a dweeb

    • zansman says:

      I have listened to this guy all winter – tomorrow, he is either king or mud – I’m thinking king!

      • southsidejeff says:

        We’ll see….temps are going nowhere and the snow is turning into rain as the storm heads north….

  14. snowmanshortpump says:

    Even if we do get 3-6 inches. It’s not going to really stick on anything. Just too warm. (as I’ve been saying all along)

  15. davidgentry says:

    I think it’s kind of funny how some people that regularly participate on this forum act like weather forecasting/predicting is a life and death situation (yes, I realize that weather forecasting can help save lives in certain circumstances). I’m sorry, but it does not matter what county, city, state or country you life in, weather forecasting is not perfect and until man controls the weather, it never will be. I mean seriously, no one, and I mean no one, will care that NBC12 forecasts a 61 degree high next Monday and another person forecasts 67 degrees.

    Who cares if Jim, Andrew, Tom or WXRISK forecasts are…off? And before someone jumps down my throat waving the “But this forecaster cocky this and that forecaster snide comments that.” If you don’t like them, then don’t patronize their sites/stations.

    Here’s to spring!

    • davidgentry says:

      And by the way, great job Jim, Andrew, Tom and the entire NBC12 weather crew. My only complaint is that you don’t participate in the forums more often, but I also understand that when we want to see you the most, is when you are at your very busiest.

      Keep up the great work!

  16. zansman says:

    Jim and Andrew- check out the following weather site and please let me know how he is wrong. This meteorologist is calling for 3″-8″ for the metro area and he has nailed every storm from last March to present. I know there are lots of models out there, but is there ANY chance he could be right?

  17. bonairman says:

    Another classic Richmond snow event. The potential was there for a week and we get Rain. LOL Why even have a 7 day forcast unless you know the sun is going to be out for those 7 days. O well the snow shovel has been hung back up in the shed until probably December since Winter is over

  18. southsidejeff says:

    WXRisk still calling for 3-6 inches for much of our area….someone’s gonna look really silly come Wednesday morning….and my money’s on DT

    • snowmanshortpump says:

      And it’s NOT going to be me!

    • southsidejeff says:

      Complete BUST

      • snowmanshortpump says:

        Hopefully people will finally realize that this guy has no idea what’s he’s talking about. You CAN’T predict a snow storm 7 days out! It’s called “guessing”

      • jt16 says:

        Hey guys, last I read on his site was him saying there’s a POTENTIAL for a significant storm, nowhere does he say we’re definitely getting x amount of snow. His snowmaps are his best estimates at that particular time with his interpretation of data. His site is just another source of data available.

      • cabinetsales says:

        Not sure how you claim a complete bust when it’s not supposed to start till later this evening and Wednesday morning when we wake up will be the true indicator. While I personally don’t think we’ll get 3-6″ of snow, it’s possible we could get that much or more depending on how the storm sets up. Or we could get some wet snow or just rain. However, I do admire wxrisk for sticking his nose out there and talking about potential storms WAY in advance. He’s been right on some and wrong on some, more right than wrong though….and a MUCH better long range forecaster than ANY of the local or national Meteorologists this year….both when he’s called for the big storms that came AND when he called for the bust which all the local and National mets still called for up until nothing happened last week.

      • snowmanshortpump says:

        But he was saying it! He was saying in this area! This amount of snow! He changed it!

      • jt16 says:

        snowman, so what if he changed it? Forecasts always change, why is this different? Go harp on Channel 8’s forecast since that’s now changed too, showing 2-3″ of snow now. You guys forget that the website the guy has is for business and farming where long range forecasts are valuable. He’s only providing a more detailed long range forecast, he’s not in the tv business.

      • cabinetsales says:

        Exactly, and imagine if we did end up with 3-6″ of snow and the roads are bad tomrrow morning. The local mets (some) are just today thinking 2-3″ of snow. Accuweather and other sites are now forecasting that for our area (I am on the southside not north of the city where accumulations will most likely be less) At least we were alerted to the possibility and local business who need to were able to stock up on the essentials. Not that it matters, but wxrisk is saying he busted on his site. He thought there would be higher totals sw. And there still could be. Depends on where/when the costal low forms and hoe much moisture is thrown over this area and if we’re in a dry slot or not. The only thing most mets seem to agree on is there is a high BUST potential either low or high on totals with this storm. I appreciate the informative posts on WXrisk where he explains the models and the POTENTIAL they show (for snow or for it not to snow) It is OBVIOUS to me like the ones who constantly downplay his site and forecasts only look at his PROJECTED totals or snow maps and don’t take the time to read his full posts and educate themselves on the weather. IF they do read his explaination of the models and still come on here and bash, then it’s just for spite.

      • southsidejeff says:

        Here’s his headline from 4 days ago:

        HUGE MARCH SNOWSTORM VA NC SNOW 3/2 – 3/4… Looking more & more likely

        you make the call….

      • realdeal2010 says:

        at 647 am March 2..some 10 hrs before the event even began you called for a complete Bust.

        Is this like something personal you have against wxrisk?

        I mean why not wait until Wed morning after the event to declare a Bust?

        Sure he is going to bust and he has already said as much. But How you claim to be fair and unbiased by doing that?

    • southsidejeff says:

      You’re wrong jt….last night he posted an actual snow forecast. And today, he says he was wrong. Well, no duh.

      Here’s what he posted last night as he transitioned from his “sky if falling” persona to his “oh crap, guess I got it wrong persona”:

      And, as I have said many, many times….it’s not that he goes out on a limb and tries to predict weather others don’t see coming, it’s that HE bashes the local TV meteorologists while he’s doing it. He basically says “I can’t believe how lame those TV guys are….can’t they see what’s happening?”

      And the answer is “Yes”. They can. That’s why they weren’t hyping this “event” a week ago like he was. If I were WRVA, Richmond Times, etc. I don’t think I’d be taking THAT chance again.

      The guy got one storm right….let’s stop treating him like he’s got a direct connection to the weather Gods.

      • realdeal2010 says:

        One storm? ok look you dont like the guy. I think he has been “lucky” this winter. But the “one storm” call is an outright lie.

        His dec 14 call on DEC 19 storm was PERFECT. His Jan 25th call was perfect
        His FEB 6-7 call was very good.

        Now you seem to be accussing Jimmy Barret on WRVA and the Richmond Times Dispatch of taking bribes from wxrisk?

        I cant wait to forward your inflammatory lie and posts to wrva and RTD and watch the lawsuits fly.

        and a week ago Jim Duncan had march 2 and 3 sunny and 52 degrees.

        Talk about a BUST LOL….

        You said in the thread “TAMP down the hype” he would never admit he would Bust.

        you attacked him professionally … and have again in this thread many time. You have called him a Fake and a fraud.

        I think wxrisk has been Lucky this winter but he has never said Jim Ducan or Andrew Freidan are NOT real meteorologists.

      • southsidejeff says:

        Get back on your meds realdeal…i never said anything about bribes…what I said was I didn’t understand why they would put this guy on the air over anyone else. This is a blog. We all post our opinions here, and I never said anything about the local guys being any more accurate. never called him fake or a fraud, but did say he likes to “hype” weather events, and he does.

        I do give him credit for admitting his “bust” though.

  19. jt16 says:

    Wondering if the season trend of storms with this similar track jogging north in the last 24-36 hours continues and spreads more precip over our area, allowing the temps to cool a little more and produce more snow. Seems the recent model runs from last night to this morning have shifted the track slightly to the NW with more precip in central va. Of course this could not happen and we get an inch of mush but I think this storm has the capacity to surprise everyone with a minor change in track to the NW.

    • tyler1279 says:

      A shift of merly 25-50 miles north and west could influence the snow totals greatly due to heavier precipitation overwhelming the warm ground temps.

      Jim/Andrew, is “jt16″s scenario above expected, possible, or not expected at all? I am curious because of all of the past storms jump to the North prior to hitting us…

      • nbc12weather says:

        Possible… but slushy character of the snow, even in that situation, would cut down accumulation potential.

  20. snowmanshortpump says:

    Gotta love those “mixed bags”!

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