Colin back to life?

This year has been slow so far in terms of tropical development (and an update from the NHC will likely have them downgrading their forecast this morning) but that doesn’t mean we’ll have a dud of a year.  We’re still early in the season, with the peak not reached until mid-September.

Both Bonnie and Colin werely BARELY Tropical storms when they were declared storms by the NHC.  They also both fell apart quickly.  But Colin appears to have some signs of life and may be RE-classified a Tropical Storm soon.

“Colin” will not make landfall on the U.S. coast but it will impact your trip to the beach if you’re headed that way this weekend.  Look for big waves at the coast– and give those surfers plenty of room!

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6 Responses to Colin back to life?

  1. bonairgirl says:

    Good for you, Andrew! As a former HS science teacher I have tremendous respect for the difficulty of your job, especially when the weather gets exciting. Forecasting is dependent on so very many variables that do exactly that…they vary, rarely anything constant. I find youall at Ch 12 to be interesting, entertaining,informative, very community caring & involved. There are always those that will want to belittle anyone they can, and I, for one, am glad you don’t accept their uninformed charges!

    Keep up the good work!

    • rab1261 says:

      The point that I was trying to make, is that long range forecasts are so very rarely accurate, why make them. Andrew, if you feel belittled, I apologize. Maybe you should hire bonairgirl as your weather-team cheerleader.

      • afreiden says:

        Thanks for the apology and I appreciate your input and feedback on our blog!
        Cheers,
        Andrew

  2. rab1261 says:

    Maybe you should cut me some slack, you didn’t specify which kind of drought we were not going to have.

  3. rab1261 says:

    Second or third year in a row that the “experts” have called for an active season, and they are wrong again. You weather people should feel very fortunate that accuracy is not a condition of employment, if it was, you would all be out of a job. Also, i would like to remind Andrew Frieden of a post on this blog that he made back in march or april. He said that we would not have a drought this summer because all the rain during fall and winter fully charged the ground water supplies. Good call.

    • afreiden says:

      You make a good point about my comments about the drought. But you should cut me some slack. First, we’ve had the hottest, driest summer on record. Second, althought we are in an agricultural drought, we have not (yet) entered hydrological drought. While some localities may institute mandatory water conservation at some point, as far as I know, water supplies haven’t come under stress yet. That’s because of the fully charged water table I mentioned in the blog post you mentioned.

      And about long-range hurricane forecasts, We’ve been saying for years that they long range hurricane forecasts are still inaccurate.In my 10 years at NBC12, Jim and I have ALWAYS made a point when giving the NHC seasonal forecasts that they aren’t the best… and not that important anyway. A large landfalling hurricane is a “slow” year can be much more devastating than a bunch of storms that don’t come ashore in “busy” years.

      Regarding your comments about accuracy, local forecasts and hurricane forecasts (track/intensity) have gotten dramatically better in recent years. But as they continue to improve, they’ll never be perfect. That’s the nature of weather.

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