This Season’s Snow By The Numbers.

Great work by the climate guys at the National Weather Service in Wakefield:  Here’s a snippet from an email they sent out:

Currently we’re at 24.7″ of snowfall for the season, 16th highest out of 113 seasons. We’ve also had 3 separate events of 6″‘ or more of snowfall…which ties with 1946-47, 1959-60, and 1961-62 as the only seasons with 3 or more such events.  This season’s total is also more snowfall than RIC had received over the past 5 seasons combined (2004-05 through 2008-09).  (24.7″ vs. 22.6″).

If you are North or west of town, you are likely laughing at the 24.7″ snow total.  Charlottesville is above 50″ already and the west end of Henrico is probably closer to 40″.  It’s been an amazing year– as we finally break our snow drought.

Posted By Andrew Freiden

 

Another storm, another mixed bag

This next storm weaker than last, but will bring a similar sequence of precip-types to the area with similar timing to the last.  For updated forecast details, check out our main discussion page on NBC12.com.   Feel free to post any reports of your weather here if you’d like.

* Jim D.

On forecast accuracy

Here’s a must-read article by Dr. Patrick Michaels that appeared last week in the Op-Ed of Richmond Times Dispatch.

* Jim D.

Post-storm thoughts

Winter storm is long gone.  Looking back, some thoughts:

1. Warm nose of air aloft made huge northward reach Friday evening, changing most all areas south of Fredericksburg to rain or a mix.  Rain/snow line therefore ended up so far north that the “extreme” snow totals making national news headlines were confined to the far northern/northwestern parts of the state. 

2. Slush resulting from the snow-to-rain situation Friday, combined with the snow Saturday, made for “tricky” storm total counts.  For the most part, the slushy snow (around 2-4″) didn’t melt a lot despite the heavy rain, so overall snow totals by the time it was all over Saturday averaged close to 8″ metro area (higher in some locales).

3. Wraparound snow impressive Saturday, hanging tough most of the day eastern VA, with very little just 30-40 miles to the west of RIC.  Heavy snow for several hours Saturday ended abruptly by late afternoon all areas, as the coastal storm made a rapid move to the east.  Often lighter snow and flurries will linger longer behind such storms, but when this one was done with us, that was it.

* Jim Duncan

Share your snow reports here

Check our main weather page on NBC12.com for updated detailed forecast discussions of the winter storm. *Jim D.

Thanks for the great reports and keep them coming….-Andrew

El Nino Update from NCEP

El Nino will likely continue through this spring

The southern storm track this season has walloped us with frequent storms and record-setting precipitation.  BUT that’s not necessarily because of El Nino.   The numbers actually bear out that Mid-Atlantic precipitation is about average during El Nino years.  

Check out the following graphic:  It shows precipitation anomolies from previous El Nino years for Jan., Feb., and March.  You’ll notice Virginia is in a “no change” zone.

a snippet from the Advisory:

potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.

*posted by Andrew Freiden

 

Storm of the week

UPDATE Thurs 5:30pm:  Absolute mess of a storm for metro Richmond-south, with progressively higher snow depths north and northwest of  metro. Slushy snow much of Friday changes to sleet and rain-heavy, Friday evening Richmond-south.  Back to snow pre-sunrise Saturday, then a few hours worth could bring a few inches accumulation.  Jim D.

Not a ton more to add to my main weather page discussion on the upcoming storm.  Looking like wintry day Friday, with snow then sleet from morning through mid-afternoon before changeover to more of a mix arrives from the south.  A cold rain from metro Richmond-south Friday night should cap accumulations for winter precip around here, but points north could be different story.

However, National Weather Service  Wakefield prudently noted in their Wednesday afternoon discussion that storms have been tracking a little farther north than model guidance this season, so trends could ultimately point  towards a slightly warmer solution (i.e. rain further north) that could even edge more northward than we suspect.  One model has been clearly showing this trend. 

I’ll post a fresh update tomorrow.

* Jim Duncan

Wintry-looking pattern longer term

UPDATE Note:  For our forecast discussion of the coming storm, check out our main weather page as well as here.  New blog post on the approaching storm later today.  Snow/Ice jackpot northern and western VA Piedmont.  Metro RIC snow at onset Friday, to rain/sleet, then ending as lighter precip (snow) Saturday.  Some accumulation likely metro area beginning and end of storm, but not like last storm.  Different story northwest VA, where foot or more likely Friday-Friday night.

Quick break from blogging about Friday’s storm, as I find it fascinating that the pieces seem to be falling into place for a continuation, or even deepening of the wintry pattern that could last through at least mid-February.

If this does in fact lock in, look for more southern tracking storms and very cold air.  There will also be a good chance, within such an evolving pattern, that many storms could eventually end up being pushed south of us, leaving our latitudes with very, very cold temperatures, but several storm “misses” instead of “hits”.   We’ll have to see how it shakes out.

* Jim Duncan

Next storm big, but…

The next storm slated to arrive here Friday, then continue into Saturday will be a more typical Virginia winter storm, albeit a really BIG one.  The last snowstorm brought snow to the entire state due to the prevasive arctic air.  This next one will present with rain, sleet and snow issues, inluding here Central Virginia.

We’ll likely see all precip types during the duration, and therefore snow totals remain a tough call.  Beware hanging on every model run for clarity on this. 

* Jim Duncan

Snow Total Map from NWS

Remarkably uniform totals across the area with the big Saturday Storm.  Richmond’s official NWS total has been updated to 9.5″ which is a 16-17:1 snow to liquid ratio.  Very dry snow.

Click here for the NWS google-based map with snow totals.  NWS wants to say “thank you” for your help during the storm.  They used your postings for totals!

posted by Andrew Freiden