Next big storm

The pattern is favoring us with a multitude of southern-stream storms.  A weak one will brush south of here Tuesday, but temperatures aloft and at the surface indicate just some light rain, and that will fall mainly over Southeastern Virginia.

The next big storm is slated for the end of the week into the weekend.  Conflicting signals from the various computer models will keep us guessing on this one.  It appears that at least for a portion of the storm we could be dealing with some snow and ice. Stay tuned.

*by Jim Duncan

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81 Responses to Next big storm

  1. asus eee pc recovery…

    Next big storm « NBC12 Weather Blog…

  2. wxrisk says:

    JMHO

    the 12z Data has shifted north a bit… this event is looking more and more like the DEC 18-19 event… that is to say it begins as snow
    it will mix with or change to sleet then to rain RIC points s and e…

    areas to that are Just 20 miles to WSW of RIC… W …NW N and NE of RIC stay all snow/ sleet and could heavy amounts…to 12″ could be 16″

    DCA and Northern VA… n central VA — fredericksburg all snow… Northern neck BIIG snow

  3. Cudds says:

    Im over this shit.

  4. Jeff J says:

    Looking more and more like a snow/sleet/rain event.

    • WXRISK says:

      0z GFS is a TAD further North…. then the Midday GFS run. BUT that being said
      .. this minor shift at 4 day out does NOT mean much.

      even If one were to take the 0z Tuesday GFS run Verbatim RIC meto would see several hours of snow then go to sleet…

      at 102 and 108 hrs the Low takes a sharp RIGHT turn to the East !! This means the mild air getting into the Richmond area ends and it does back to ALL snow

      N of RIC
      NE of RIC ( northern neck)
      W of Ric– as close as short Pump and Ameila
      and SW of RIC

      this STILL looks like a Major snow

  5. Matt says:

    Looking good for this weekend’s event!

  6. Wabash Cannonball says:

    Am I safe with continuing with my Super Bowl party plans for Sunday?

  7. wxrisk says:

    12z GFS ensembels are as cold as the operational run– all snwo for ric wire to wire

    12z GFS has 19″ of snow for ric now numbers for weekend storm roa = 18.3 lyh 16.1 gso 19.7 int 16/.1 dan 24.3 farmville 21.3 ric 19.0″

    • wxrisk says:

      image can be seen here

      FOLKS this is a Model/ and more models will be coming out. The pattern DOES look colder and the trend is that way … but this is NOT reality… yet!!.

      the threat of a 3rd major snowstorm for western… southwest… central VA… maybe as far north as DC and southern MD is growing.

      wxrisk.com

  8. Annie says:

    I just saw Andrew tweet that the NWS has corrected RIC’s total to 9.5″. That should calm down some of those bursting blood vessels over the previous lowball total.

    • davidgentry says:

      Thanks for that, Annie “That should calm down some of those bursting blood vessels over the previous lowball total.”

      I really needed the laugh today!

  9. Matthew says:

    TOTAL PRECIP IN NEXT STORM

  10. Joe says:

    For this latest storm, I kept reading forecasts (even up the the last minute) that stated the heaviest snow will be Southside/Emporia/Dinwiddie with Northern Virginia/Wash DC getting much less or possibly none. Even the Friday night update in Jim’s blog said this. Well, it turned out that central virginia not Southside got the heaviest snow, DC got a half foot and the snow went as far north as central Pennsylvania (2 inches) and Jersey. Obviously their models didn’t detect the more Northern course of the storm even 12 hours out from when it happened. I’m not saying that your models weren’t fairly good even 72 hours out (actually it was impressive) but how come the shorter term forecast which you would think would be more accurate turned out to be so off. Southside clearly didn’t get most of the snow from this storm.

    • nbc12weather says:

      Folks, including many on this blog (and mee too), put WAY too much faith in the computer guidance. As you correctly noted, it wasn’t accurate in telling us where the heaviest snow would fall, even just a few hours before the storm. This trend of trying to “micro-cast” where every split of an inch will fall boxes us into a corner more often than we’d like to admit.
      Jim D.

    • JB says:

      Joe,

      I think the storm’s more northerly track (or development of a second low off the coast) seemed to catch a lot of the professional meteoroligsts somewhat off guard. As the storm was brewing, the NWS kept widening the winter storm warnings/advisories further north. Even as early as Sat morning, the guys/gals on weather channel said areas north of Mason Dixon line would receive nothing and DC may get dusting. Tell that to folks who have sore muscles from shoveling all weekend…..

      • Sean says:

        They went with the NAM mostly and discounted the more northerly GFS. That’s why their forecasts were off, although even the GFS didn’t have much in Pennsylvania it had about 4-6 inches in DC.

      • bon says:

        the guy on WRVA had 3-5 inches snow into DCA and 6-10 N or Rich which was Much heavier than what most TV mets had….

  11. K says:

    My understanding is the official totals at KRIC are currently under serious discussion of revision by the NWS. Expect more snow to fall today under this bright blue, sunny sky

  12. Shawn says:

    Tuesday’s storm will probably give us a dusting of snow and maybe a layer of sleet and freezing rain. That will be very minor. The most we could see is probably around two inches (this is very unlikely). I think that the storm Friday into Saturday will be a major storm although it might start as sleet. There won’t be room for all of the snow piles! We will have to wait a little longer to see exactly how much we will get. I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not tired of snow yet!

  13. Jeff says:

    Wll it snow next weekend?

  14. Jeff says:

    I live a mile from the airport. I walked to several locations and got from 10-10 1/2″ on every reading.

  15. wxrisk.com says:

    come on Jim D you cannot be serious!!! No one who has any grasp of basic science could possibly argue that the richmond airport snow observation is a GOOD one.

    0.60″ liquid at temps of 19-23 degrees is NOT a 10:1 snow ration. Not even in NWS land!!!.

    how does one get 10 hrs of Heavy and Moderate snow and you get ONLY 8 inches!?!?

    the nearest location that also has 8 inches of snow is 40-50 miles to the E or SE.

  16. David H. says:

    Too many blogs to sort through right now, but wasn’t this about the same forecast a week ago at this time??

    • snowman-Shortpump area says:

      Not quite. We new the cold air would be in place last week. This week it’s a little un-certain how much will be in this area this time round. It certainly won’t be as much as this past week end. I think this will be more like our classic Nor-easter with the whole dividing line we always seem to get.

  17. davidgentry says:

    I love it when the weather blogs are active! Looks like this week will not disappoint.

    I hate to say it, but I am hoping that this upcoming weekend will be snow!!

  18. Chris says:

    it was still snowing at 3 this morning out here in toano. i had at least 10 inches.

  19. Chris says:

    it was still snowing at 3 am this morning out here in toano. i don’t have a measurement but it was definitely over 10 inches for me.

  20. JB says:

    I like the timing of these storms on Fri/Sat – gives me a least one day for cleanup/digging out. Also, kudos to VDOT/contractors for clearing roads so quickly – less than 24 hours after snow ended, roads were in great shape (relatively speaking of course).

    Also, as we get later in to the winter season, although the temps today didn’t get above freezing at our place, the sun’s increasing higher angle really did some serious melting of the snow on the southern part of our property.

  21. Matt says:

    Does anyone think the temperatures will be cold enough for snow?

  22. kevin says:

    Is anyone an accuweather pro subscriber ? Joe Bastardi has been saying this winter for us was going to be cold and snowy. He also says it’s going to keep going right in to March. Artic high’s and southern storms are a good combo for us.It’s going to be an interesting week watching next weekend’s storm and how it unfolds.

    • bob in chester says:

      joe Bastardi??? that chump said this storm was going to hit DC BOS… BUST!!!!

      He is an awful forecaster. He missed the cold in the Plains and Midwest in december and called for severe cold in the northeast in dc.

      Then he argued there would be NO jan thaw…
      that guy they had on wrva has been far better

      • Matt says:

        I’m not a huge fan of him but he was right this weekedn. DC see got around 6 inches and it snowed all the way up to Souther NJ. I don’t call that a bust. He even had Richmond in his sweet spot. Well we were.

      • Sean says:

        Matt, he is wrong most of the time. He is a wishcaster.

  23. snowman-Shortpump area says:

    This coming weekend is going to be VERY interesting! I don’t want to get you’lls hopes up just yet, but worth keeping a close eye on!

  24. luke says:

    We got around 14.25 inches in eastern goochland

  25. ryan says:

    well RIC might have only got 14.8 inches of snow far this year, but on my table in middle of yard this year snow total for me has been between 25-27 inches and no exaggeration here, i can only report what i see on my tape measure. i have not seen this much snow since 1996 when i lived in southwest VA….if you count last years march storm 36 inches of snow in last year for me ! i love it and bring on another.

    • Matt says:

      I know! Haha RIC is messed up!

      • nbc12weather says:

        Numerous comments here past day have been bashing the RIC snow measurement.
        I have no doubt that it is accurate, as I’m sure it always is for that location. The recorded total snow of 8″ matches up well with the 0.57″ liquid equivalent.
        Jim D.

  26. Liz says:

    My only request is future storms arrive during the work week so I can get a day off. Jim D., please make that happen. ( :

    R.E.: snow totals — we measured 12 inches on a table in our backyard in the Fan. No drifts, totally flat. I suppose some snow could have been blowing off the roof and added to the total? Oh well, I don’t care. This has been great!

  27. Jane, Chester says:

    I salute VDOT! Our road never sees a snowplow until way after the storm. I also have to say that the first ones to see a plow on secondary roads seem to always be the high income neighborhoods.This morning at 9:00am in he rolled. It was awesome. We have a number of elderly folks back in here and it is always tough on them. Good job and thanks so much!

    • Snowman-Shortpump area says:

      Here here!

    • Mighty Dyckerson says:

      You must work for VDOT. In my experience, they’re fast, but they always do a half-ass job – i.e. only one lane plowed, dangerous snow and ice patches left behind, piles of snow pushed in front of driveways, etc. It’s like they’re in a rush to get to the next state mandated coffee break.

  28. Annie says:

    I’m moving to Florida this summer so it’s like Mother Nature is working overtime to give me one AWESOME last winter before I leave. \o/

  29. owen says:

    are you serious again! Awsome!!!

  30. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    But when are we going to get “the BIG ONE”? the new record breaking one? The 2 footer!

    I was disappointed that this one was only recorded as a 7 incher! I think that’s what I heard on the news last night? Why is that nbc12 weather team? Why such a low count with such high amounts in the area?

    • nbc12weather says:

      8″ now the official total at RIC. Despite the higher amounts elsewhere, there was quite a bit of variation west to east and north to south. The liquid equivalent at RIC was just shy of 0.60″, which makes sense with the 8″ snow total. Jim D.

      • wxrisk.com says:

        come on Jim D you cannot be serious!!! No one who has any grasp of basic science could possibly argue that the richmond airport snow observation is a GOOD one.

        0.60″ liquid at temps of 19-23 degrees is NOT a 10:1 snow ration. Not even in NWS land!!!.

        how does one get 10 hrs of Heavy and Moderate snow and you get ONLY 8 inches!?!?

        the nearest location that also has 8 inches of snow is 40-50 miles to the E or SE.

    • Matt S. says:

      Snowman…might I suggest that a lot of people were exaggerating yesterday? In Petersburg we measured on objects, unobstructed portions of the yard, and pavement, and we were coming up with 6-7″ no matter where we measured. Other posters here said the same thing. Even though the Tri-Cities and points south didn’t get the bulk of the snow as predicted, I find it hard to believe that there was more than 10-11″ anywhere in the metro yesterday, since the snow bands looked relatively consistent everywhere. Maybe people were measuring snow drifts or something. Still, a deep pre-Christmas snow, an 8″ storm this weekend, another potentially on the way, and two more months of potential snow has me very excited. I’d much rather have a snowy winter than one huge storm with nothing but cold rain thereafter.

      • Lee says:

        I measured on the top of my table outside and got 13″ in Short Pump. No exaggeration here.

      • Stephanie says:

        I measured several places in the yard on grass and got 12 inches everywhere. No snow drifts or exaggerating. Mechanicsville. Hoping for another foot next weekend!

      • JPal says:

        Center of the paved driveway (which is flat) 12.75″. Glen Allen (Innsbrook)
        No exaggerations here either. RIC is a bit to the South and East of Glen Allen, so maybe that explains the difference?

      • Annie says:

        This snow depth map could explain the sharp accumulation differences between the Richmond metro area to areas around Petersburg and the airport.

      • Emily says:

        Got right around a foot in Midlothian. No exaggeration here.

      • Snowman-Shortpump area says:

        Mind you, my wife always said I was not accurate when it came to measuring in inches! 😦

      • wxrisk.com says:

        so MATT t all these reports are form folks who are morons? wnat about Dan salkovitz meteorologist from VA DEQ who does know how to measure snow
        and took pictures of 11.0 in downtown RIC…

        what about Brian Hurley LEAD nws meteorologist who lives in chester who reported 12.0 as his final total

      • Chrissy says:

        I live between Parham Road and Pemberton just off Broad Street in the Westend. I measured on my tabletop on my deck and had 14.5 inches! No joke..couldn’t believe it. Last storm in December I had 14 inches. I’m not looking forward to any more snow!!!

  31. Tristan says:

    FIRST!

    lol this will be awesome if we get another snowstorm, with ten inches or more snow!

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