Snowstorm to remember

UPDATE: As of late Fri evening, very dry air -low dew points giving the snow a difficult time, but reports of flakes starting to fly south.  Main event for RIC and this part of the state Saturday, with southside Virginia hitting the snow jackpot more than the rest of us.

This will be a memorable snowstorm for the southern half of Virginia.  We all know by now that heavy snow will combine with very cold temperatures Saturday to produce totalsclose to or exceeding a foot  over the southeastern part of the state…a rare event for sure.

For metro Richmond and surrounding counties, look for 8-10″ with up to a foot possible south of I-64, and lower amounts north of I-64.  Points just 30 or so miles north of Richmond will see substantially less.  Points south of metro Richmond, generally south of the Tri-Cities area, could see as much as 14″ .

Timing for the heaviest snow rates will be from about mid-morning through mid-afternoon Saturday, with rates of over an inch/hour likely.

Temperatures will be memorable as well, with daytime highs falling into the teens !

* Jim Duncan

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65 Responses to Snowstorm to remember

  1. Denise64 says:

    We have 11 inches here in Midlothian.

  2. Snowman-Shortpump area says:

    Just hit 2″. Coming down steady.

  3. DaddyzGirl says:

    Update…Finally! Snow at 2:55am at Willis Rd

  4. snowwatch says:

    2:55 AM and the snow has just started near the Chesterfield Airport on Belmont Rd in Chesterfield

  5. DaddyzGirl says:

    2:38am in Chester and still no snow…

  6. Conway says:

    Still no snow!!! Could you guys give us an update….what’s going on! It was expected to start right after midnight.

  7. Rae says:

    NO SNOW, GLEN ALLEN, ALMOST 3AM…. STILL NO SNOW… WHAT IS GOING ON…either way I am happy…because I dont want any snow. I am sick of it…so I HOPE you are WRONG!!!! NO disrespect intended! GREAT NEWS AND WEATHER, for the most part….this is one thing I PRAY you are wrong one…I apologize…love you all…see you in the morning!!!

  8. Lou says:

    I HOPE THE AMBULANCE DRIVERS AND FIRE RESCUE TEAMS ARE ALL RESTED UP AND ARE READY FOR ALL THE AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TOMORROW WINK WINK 😀

  9. Jeremy says:

    Was driving to Richmond on Rt 60 tonight…it was snowing just west of Powhatan at 12:30 a.m.

  10. Conway says:

    No snow yet in Henrico. I guess air will moist up soon

  11. dk says:

    i live in the short pump area, but up in the reston area this weekend. Wishing i was there to experience the snow, but looks like nothing is happening?? what a big DISS!!

  12. Emily says:

    Flurries have started in Midlothian.

  13. snowwatch says:

    I’m up and watching in Chesterfield. No snow yet

  14. Maryann says:

    Goodnight Everyone! Here’s to plenty of snow when we wake up!

  15. David G. says:

    Same here, Steve, but with a 10 year old. Good night, snow people!

  16. Steve says:

    I also live in the Short Pump area. I was just outside and did not see any flakes. I live near Patterson and Pump so not really Short Pump but close. Anyway, I am about ready to give up the wait and get some sleep. I have a 3 year old that is raring to go and he will be up at the crack of dawn. He already has his sleds lined up on the porch and his snow gear in a pile.

  17. Maryann says:

    Still up here, too. About to go check again. Last time I look, the doormat was white (it’s normally black… lol).

  18. David G. says:

    Still up here as well…still looking out the window.

  19. Snowman says:

    I’m still up. Think I just saw the first flake here in Shortpump.

  20. vk says:

    Guess everyone went to bed.

  21. eLiTe J says:

    DT get back over to WTVR CHAT!

  22. vk says:

    Being from the north originally…and used to forced air natural gas…these heat pumps in the south suck !!

    Tomorrow and tomorrow night…my HP will be running non stop while unalble to pull any heat from this major cold. Heat strip = sucks = $$

    Perphaps it’s time for geothermal heatpumpls…major bucks…but the are WAY more efficient.

    • JB says:

      VK,

      couldn’t agree with you more. heat pumps were apparently endorsed by Dominion Power as the only thing heat pumps are good for in this area is sucking up electricity and providing cold air. They should be banned in this area unless like you suggest you could tap the earth as heat sink….

      JB

  23. Lee says:

    It is so funny how each station says something different. NBC12’s numbers are lower than the others. Hard to know who to believe! At least we know it’s going to happen!

    • Charley says:

      Thinking about it, I have a theory for the divergence in the forecasts. I think the NAM models are showing a farther North track because the cold air isn’t pushing in quite as much as originally forecasted, and I believe that NBC12 may still be betting that more cold air will make it in than the newer models suggest. Just conjecture though, IANAM (I am not a meteorologist ;o).

  24. The One says:

    Time for the city to round up all the bums and put them in warming shelters.

  25. Sam M says:

    Weather channel actually said about half hour ago that the storm trend and new models looking like northward movement. Meaning that the heavier snowbands may be north of the stateline. They are upping DC forecast to 2-4 inches…

  26. Charley says:

    Hmmm weather.com and WRIC are both saying midday temps are going to be around 25 or so (and hold steady) in richmond. Obviously cold enough for snow but this deviates very strongly from NBC12’s earlier notice about temperatures in the teens. I would be curious to know where everyone is getting their information from and what leads to their conclusions… Perhaps a topic for a video blog!

  27. matzdikow says:

    Why is everyone so worried? It’s going to SNOW! And a lot of it. Stop worrying so much. Everyone will be happy when it’s all said and done.

  28. vk says:

    Heck…Spartanburg, SC already has 5″ !!!! Looks like it’s way south.

    • Charley says:

      You guys been following the forecast at all? it was always supposed to start south of us earlier, it’s been about whether more moisture would make its way north or not and when, and the models are still looking good. In fact the latest NAM is the best model run yet, which is a great sign for snow.

    • wxdavid says:

      theLow is over the Delta ,..it moves to cape hatteras… if you dont think that isnt going to drive the heavy precip into RIC….

  29. Tristan says:

    Well I hope we get more than 12 inches

  30. Lou says:

    Why are the radar loops that are shown – almost always – like a small 2 or 3 hour time frame? It sort of throws me off. radar loops of past 10 or 12 hour time frame would be more easier for me to follow than a 2 or 3 hour time frame.

  31. Jophn says:

    where is all this snow some snowstorm 944 pm and still not a single flake I think they just over did it because of the dec.18-19 storm looks like everything is way south of us

  32. Isobar says:

    Anybody else getting a little concerned with the current radar loop? Way too early, but clearly an indication of a “dry wall” setting up just north of RIC. Let’s hope the atmosphere continues to moisten overnight and this thing has enough energy to compete with strong high pressure to the north.

    • Charley says:

      There has been talk all day about the fact that the snow may not start until 6am or later for the metro area, and that hasn’t made any of the nbc12 team explicitly lower the totals, so I wouldn’t be too concerned. The heavy stuff isn’t due until around noon EST anyways, and the colder weather should help us get 1″+ an hour then.

  33. Stephanie says:

    My folks are in route back to VA and NC is getting pounded right now. I95 is getting slick in NC.

  34. Maryann says:

    Very fine, spotty snow showers in Sussex County right now.

  35. wxdavid says:

    NEW NAM IS MUCH WETTER and snowier
    over 1.0″ at Ric and 1.2″ to 1.4″ liquid in chesterfield peterburg

    • Beefer says:

      wxdavid: not knowing the lingo…what does that mean exactly?

      • Charley says:

        The new NAM model (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Mesoscale_Model) that was ran at midnight UTC (7:00PM EST) shows significantly more moisture than the previous NAM and GFS models (which have been trending overall northwards for the past 48 hours). While the overall batch hasn’t moved northwards too much, the “bullseye” of the heaviest precipitation took a noticable northwards shift, placing it for about a 6 hour period (give or take) at I-64 and points south.

        You can see for yourself at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

        Also, with the colder weather being forecasted by NBC12, the liquid:snow ratio becomes an exciting factor as well. The table can be seen here: (http://www.stormchaoswx.com/wx/scwxsnowtoliquid.pdf). Sorry for the .pdf.

        Another factor which can affect snow:liquid ratio is wind, but since winds are not forecasted to go much above 10mph, that should not be too much of a limiting factor.

        All told, with the new NAM as wxdavid mentioned showing 1.0″ of liquid for Richmond, and 1.2″+ for locations south, if the conversions hold true we could be in store for 20″ for Richmond and 24″+ for points a little farther south.

        I’m excited 😀

      • wxdavid says:

        that Model has SIGNIFICANTLY increase the amount of Liquid over RIC’

        it increased it at 6am then again at 12noon then at 6pm and now

        the amounts on the Link I posted is 1.00 to 1.25 over richmond metro area

        multiply that by 15 to 1 ratio in this air mass and you get amounts close 16 to 18 ” in RIC

        in chesterfield and PTB and points south the model has 1.5″ liquids … do the math.. it is a huge amount of snow

  36. bored says:

    any new news on how much were getting?

  37. Shawn says:

    Hey wxdavid, I’m liking those maps. I’ll increase my predictions from 8 inches up to 10 inches. Everything is looking a little better now. Although the majority of the snow won’t fall until Saturday, I think we will probably miss school on Tuesday.

  38. Kim T. says:

    DT you’re my hero 🙂

  39. wxdavid says:

    this map is the 12z high resolution WRF model — 5km gid — the new super accurate high tech Model …used Just for heavy snow and T-storms

  40. Lou says:

    Will NC get more snow than the VA “bullseye” area?

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